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Whopper to go 至尊汉堡，打包带走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK
SHARES in Burger King (BK soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it. How much beef was behind these stories was unclear. But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way. There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald’s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.
有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。

Recession has favoured McDonald’s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008. Shares in McDonald’s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August. Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.
金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。

Why has McDonald’s been eating BK’s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession. McDonald’s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee. BK has struggled to follow suit. At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits. BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.
为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。 汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。

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BK is used to changes in ownership. It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant. In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs. They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing. They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants. In 2006 BK floated its shares again. Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald’s.
汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply. TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006. However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it. If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as “flipping”.
私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。 本主题由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移动 评分 收藏2 分享0 0 0 Down the slipway下水
“Quantitative easing” is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working “量化宽松”不受待见，但是有效 Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

EVEN before the Federal Reserve unveiled its second round of quantitative easing (QE on November 3rd, critics had already denounced it as ineffectual or an invitation to inflation. It cannot be both and it may not be either. 2

美联储的第二轮量化宽松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨击，有人说它不会起效，也有人说这样会导致通胀。这两者根本不可能同时发生，甚至一个都不会发生。

The announcement of “QE2” was hardly breathtaking. The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be. That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE. Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused. Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should (see chart. 第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6 000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money. This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments. The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation. The yield on their five-year cousins is negative (see Buttonwood. Share prices are up by 14% in the same period. Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis. “You can declare QE to be a success already,” says one hedge-fund economist. “Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark. But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.”
在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益率相对较平和预期通胀的双重作用下，10年期通胀指数化美国国债真实收益率从1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品种则已呈现负利率（见本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市场上涨了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元对日元下跌了5%，对欧元下跌了9%，从贸易加权角度看，则下跌了5%。一位对冲基金经济学家说：“可以说，量化宽松已经获得了成功。它能不能转化为实际行动还不好说。但其机制是否起作用已经毋庸置疑了。”

With a bit of a lag, these easier financial conditions are supposed to boost growth through three channels. First, lower real yields spur borrowing and investment. This channel is bunged up: many households cannot borrow because their homes have fallen in value and because banks are less willing to lend. But the remaining two channels remain open. Higher share prices have raised household wealth by some $1.4 trillion, which will spur some spending. And the lower dollar should help trade. American factory purchasing managers reported a sharp jump in export orders in October and 3

a drop in imports. 一般认为，宽松的金融环境将通过三个渠道提振经济增长（可能存在时滞）。第一，真实收益率下降能够刺激借贷与投资。这一渠道目前已经失去了作用：许多家庭因为房价下跌和银行不愿意借贷而无法得到贷款。但剩下的两个渠道仍然畅通。股价上涨已使家庭财富增加了1.4万亿美元，这将刺激支出。美元下跌则应该有利于贸易。美国工厂采购经理报告显示，10月份出口订单出现了大幅增长，进口则有所下降。

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE. That’s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs. The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress’s newly empowered Republicans. In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed. 咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers认为，美联储在第二轮量化宽松中将总共购买1.5万亿美元债务，使明年的经济增长率从3.3%（如果不实行量化宽松的话）提高到3.6%。这还不是最令人震惊的：该公司还认为，美国经济需要联邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要达到这一效果，美联储必须购买5.25万亿美元债券才行。要美联储抛出如此大手笔是不可能的，因为它害怕因此导致不可预料的后果，比如引起最近在国会中重掌大权的共和党人的激烈反应。彭博社（Bloomberg）的调查显示，60%自称茶党支持者的人赞成改组甚至取消美联储。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? “The odds aren’t zero,” says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they’re small. There’s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates. That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded; it can then tighten policy. 量化宽松会过犹不及、将通胀预期推高到危险水平吗？“并非不可能。”前美联储副主席邓?考恩（Don Kohn）说，但可能性很小。更大的风险是通胀预期在信贷放松和支出增速之后抬头。但这正是美联储成功的信号，届时它已经可以采取紧缩措施了。

Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths. Both India and Australia raised interest rates this week despite rising currencies. 其他国家抱怨量化宽松的唯一作用是，将美国投资者驱向其他国家寻找高收益，是当地货币升值并产生资产泡沫。但这是无论如何都不能避免的事情，因为各个国家的增长路径各不同。印度和澳大利亚本周均在本国货币升值的情况下提高了利率。 A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out. But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response. It had been scheduled to release details of 4

its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week. Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed’s move. If central banks all print money in unison, and don’t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip. QE’s benefits should not be over-egged. Nor should they be dismissed. 不能排除发生一种危险情况，那就是各国竞相采取以邻为壑的货币市场干预手段。日本银行在9月就曾经直接干预外汇市场使日元贬值，但这一回，日本银行的反应较为温和。原定11月中旬政策例会上宣布的日本量化宽松计划将提前至本周。分析师认为日本央行此举是为了缓和美联储动作给日元带来的升值压力。如果各国央行一起开动印钞机，而不顾流动性过剩的后果，那么结果将是全球货币刺激。没有必要过分强调量化宽松的好处，但也不应该刻意贬低。
Opening stand 登场

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的运气是成功职业开端的一半
Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings. Might that be true of cricketers’ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test (international match at home. 在板球比赛中，击球手通常需要点运气才能打出不错的击球局。所有板球选手都是这样吗？其他职业也是如此吗？在一篇IMF工作论文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（国际）对抗赛（Test）而言，能在主场上演职业生涯首秀对于板球选手来说是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd (just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th. Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%. 主场作战意为着更熟悉的场地和天气状况，以及更高的观众支持率（关于这一点，11月25日做客布里斯班与澳大利亚进行系列赛的英格兰板球队队员将有切身体会）。通过分析1950至1985年间790位板球手在对抗赛处子秀上的表现，两位作者发现，主场作战平均能将处子系列赛得分“跑”次数较客场提高33%，将被对方投手封杀的“跑”的次数降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players. But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members. By using age as a proxy for ability (assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented, the authors find that the distribution of cricketers’
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ages is almost identical for home and away debuts. 当然，如果各队有意将主场处子秀的机会留给较为优秀的选手的话，那么出现上述结果就并非运气了。但处子秀本身是由一系列随机事件决定的：比如队友受伤或是状态低迷等。两位作者将年龄作为能力的一个代表因素（假设选手成功登上国际赛场的年龄越低，则其水平就越优秀），结果发现，板球选手主场处子秀年龄分布和客场没有区别。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career. Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player’s career average. The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers. One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance. A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad. 强势处子秀似乎意味着辉煌的职业生涯。系列赛处子秀上得分跑次数每增加10次，选手职业生涯平均得分跑次数就能增加5次。开门红效应对投手也适用。原因可能是成功的开端所带来的信心和经验能够刺激选手的未来表现。反之，如果处子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的阴影：首秀是在客场，又没能出彩，那么即使你很有潜质，在后来的比赛中也可能得不到出场机会。

A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too. That’s especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performance—a boom in financial markets for a trader, let’s imagine. 良好的开端在其他领域也可能有持久的正面效应。特别是，当雇主只看表面结果而忽略其他可能带来良好表现的因素时，开门红效应就尤为显著。大牛市对于交易员的影响就是其中之一。
A rock, not a hard place 选石的，不选硬的

Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 资源饥渴地区的矿业繁荣

Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong

IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain. First they moved from manufacturing to property. Now it’s the turn of rocks. 有时候，银行家在亚洲的一举一动让人感到他们是在逆经济食物链而动。他们先是将注意力从制造业转向房地产。现在则轮到了矿石。

In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion ($4.6 billion in the process. Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before. A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger 6

than before, thanks to Asia’s appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices. 光是在香港，今年以来便已有7家矿产和自然资源公司上市，总融资额高达360亿港币。2009年全年共有13家矿产类公司在香港上市，融资580亿港币，较清淡的2008年有所增长。明年还有10~15家公司等着上市。由于亚洲对原材料的巨大需求和不断上涨的商品价格，总融资额达到空前高度已是板上钉钉。

One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company. It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in China’s north-eastern tip. The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m. Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all. Sino Prosper’s valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms. 矿产类股票中火速蹿升，其中中盈国金控股有限公司的表现尤其耀眼。这家香港上司公司一年前还是个皮包公司，手里握有一张协议，内容据说是关于收购内蒙古一家小型金矿和黑龙江省边远地区五块未开发地皮的，去年的市值为4亿港币。从那儿以后，金价开始飙涨，于是小金矿摇身一变成了大宝库，中盈国金的市值目前已高达35亿港币，成了矿业股中的明星。

Hong Kong’s Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining. It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing (difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm. Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian government’s intervention to block BHP Billiton’s hostile takeover of Potash Corporation. 上周，众多加拿大公司出席了一个由香港加拿大商会（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）举办的凭柬入场矿业会议，或是争取直接上市（这比较困难，因为香港股票交易所对上市公司盈利能力要求较高），或是寻求手握重金又急切需要资源的中国企业作为部分投资人，以获得资本。投资者们似乎不太担心挖矿风险，而是更加顾忌潜在的政治障碍——加拿大政府干预叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）对Potash公司的敌意收购。

Enthusiasm for minerals firms is not found just in Hong Kong. There are stirrings in less likely places, too. The Mongolian stock exchange, located in a lovely old cinema in Ulan Bator, has been transformed into a meeting place for international bankers. Locally listed miners are booming. A tie-up between the Mongolian bourse and the London Stock Exchange is expected to be announced by the end of the month. 并非只有香港出现了矿业公司狂热。在某些意想不到的地方，矿业股也是热火朝天。位于乌兰巴托一座漂亮的老剧院内蒙古证券交易所最近成了国际银行家的聚会之地。本地的上市矿业公司非常火爆。蒙古证券交易所与伦敦证券交易所（London Stock Exchange）的合作预计将于本月末公布。
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Only two large mines are currently being developed—gold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoi—but there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company. Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too. Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager. Just like the bankers. 目前蒙古只有两个较大的矿处于开发中——Oyu Tolgoi的金铜伴生矿和Tavan Tolgoi的煤矿。但是，TenGer银行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有传言说蒙古政府正在就全国众多小型矿和15个主要大矿与全球矿业巨头进行重要谈判。除了矿产企业之外，金融家也在蒙古寻求着其他业务机会。Hutagt用“狼”来形容蒙古经济，认为它又饥饿又迫切。这倒是与银行家颇为相似。 America's budget deficit 美国的预算赤字

Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw 轻声细语的德州电锯

Sorting out America’s fiscal mess is relatively simple. What’s needed is political courage 欲解美国财政乱局何其简单，政治勇气足以

Nov 18th 2010

LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections. With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad. Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy. He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America’s ominous fiscal arithmetic. 自从奥巴马领军的民主党在中期选举中身受重创后，他两周内接连出访欧亚两洲；因此频繁出席境外峰会也就不稀奇了。既然国内前景仍是一片僵局，那么总统先生转战国外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奥巴马目前急需证明自己仍有能力引领国内政局；鉴于目前美国的“预算数学题”非常难解，他不妨从这里开始，但需要拉拢国会以便达成共识。

Conventional wisdom says such an agreement is impossible: the problem is too big, the politics too difficult. But it is wrong to suppose that the deficit is unfixable, as two proposals for fixing it have shown this month (see article. And even the politics may not be totally intractable. 公众的态度是这种共识无法形成：问题太严重，政见太复杂。不过认为赤字问题无药可救也是片面的，因为仅本月就已经出现了两个应对提案。甚至掌控政治问题也非难事。

A trillion-dollar trove 8

上万亿的聚宝盆

The scale of America’s fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look. Today’s deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge. Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years. But that is largely thanks to the economy’s woes. If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015. But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care. Such “entitlements” will double the federal debt by 2027; and the number keeps on rising after then. The figures for state and local debt are scary too. 美国财政问题的严重程度取决于预期时间的长短。目前巨额的赤字水平已经达到了GDP的9%。拜美国的苦难经济所赐，社会需求造成的联邦债务对GDP比例达到了62%，这是过去50多年来从未出现过的。如果经济恢复增长，那么连续数年减税政策和过度消费导致的缺口就有可能得到弥补：如果希望在2015年使联邦债务达到稳定水平，仅需相当于GDP2%的支出削减或者税收增加就可以实现。但如果预测更长远的未来，那么人口老龄化会增高的养老金和健康保障计划的需求，缺口就将变的更大。类似的“社保支出”将会迫使联邦债务在2027年翻倍；而且会越来越高。州债务和地方债务看起来同样可怕。

The solution should start with an agreement between Mr Obama and Congress on a target for a manageable level of publicly held federal debt: say, 60% of GDP by 2020. They should also agree on the broad balance between lower spending and higher taxes to achieve this. This newspaper believes that the lion’s share of the adjustment should come on the spending side. Entitlements are at the root of the problem and need to be trimmed, and research has shown that although spending cuts weigh on growth in the short run, they hurt less than higher taxes. And in the long run later retirement and other reforms will expand the labour force and thus potential output, whereas higher taxes dull incentives to work and invest. 解决问题的前提是奥巴马必须同国会达成共识，目标是将社会需求造成的美国政府债保持在可控的水平内；比如2020年达到GDP的60%。同时还要在减少支出和增加税收上形成一致意见，以便寻求二者之间的大体平衡。本刊认为调整的重头戏是在支出方面。社保支出是问题的根源，需要进行削减；尽管研究表明削减支出在短期内会影响到经济增长，但对经济造成的伤害却远不及税收增加。从长期来看，延长退休年龄及其他改革举措必将扩张劳动力大军，进而增加潜在产出；但高税收弱化了工作的激励机制，同时使投资热情也大大衰退。 Yet even to believers in small government, like this newspaper, there are good reasons for letting taxes take at least some of the strain. Politically, this will surely be the price of any bipartisan agreement. Economically, there is sensible room for manoeuvre without damaging growth. American taxes are relatively low after the reductions of recent years. In an ideal world the tax burden would be gradually shifted from income to consumption (including a carbon tax. But that is politically hard—and there is a much easier target for reform. 本刊属于笃信小政府的人，甚至对于所有这样的人来说，都有充足的理由认为税收应该分担9

部分压力。从政治角度上来说，两党取得的任何共识都要付出一定的代价；从经济角度上看，在不伤害经济增长的情况下还有一定的调整空间。经过近些年的连续削减，美国的税率水平已经达到了相当低的程度。在完美状态下，税收负担应该逐渐从收入领域转移到消费领域（包括烟尘排放税）。不过这对政治是一个巨大的挑战，毕竟还有很多容易解决的改革目标。

America’s tax system is riddled with exemptions, deductions and credits that feed an industry of advisers but sap economic energy. Simply scrapping these distortions—in other words, broadening the base of taxation without any new taxes—could bring in some $1 trillion a year. Even though some of this would have to go in lowering marginal rates, it is a little like finding money behind the sofa cushions. The tax system would be simpler, fairer and more efficient. All this means that America can sensibly aim for a balance between spending cuts and higher taxes similar to the benchmark set by Britain’s coalition government. A ratio of 75:25 is about right. 美国的税收体系给税收豁免、税收扣减和信贷留了许多开口，这不仅养活了整个顾问行业，还消耗了经济的整体能量。每年仅仅为了冲抵这些差异（换而言之，没有新税种增加的情况下增加税收基础）就要耗费一万亿美元。为了实现这个目的不得不降低边际税率，但多少有点儿像在沙发垫子后面寻找钱财。税收体系将会更加简单、公平和高效。所有这些意味着美国可以理智的在职出削减和提高税收之间找到平衡，类似于英国联合政府设定的基准。75:25差不多就是正确的比例了。

There is legitimate concern that, done hastily, austerity could derail a weak recovery. But this strengthens the case for a credible deficit-reduction plan. By reassuring markets that America will control its debt, the government will have more scope to boost the economy in the short term if need be—for instance by temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts. 这其中还有一些合理的担忧：如果操之过急，限制消费必将颠覆原本就很羸弱的经济复苏。这种忧虑让人们主张削减赤字方案必须值得信赖。如果美国政府可以向市场证明自己仍然可以控制债务，那么在需要的时候仍有更大的余地去推动经济发展，比如继续延长布什政府时期的税务削减政策。

Mr Obama and the Republicans are brimming with ideas for freezing discretionary spending, which covers most government operations from defence to national parks. They have found common cause in attacking “earmarks”, the pet projects that lawmakers insert into bills. But discretionary outlays, including defence, are less than 40% of the total budget. Entitlements, in particular Social Security (pensions and Medicare and Medicaid (health care for the elderly and the poor, represent the bulk of spending and even more of spending growth. 奥巴马和共和党人都热衷于冻结机动支出的理念，这涵盖了从国防到国家公园的大部分政府部门。他们已经将声讨“特定用途之处”作为共同事业，这正是法律制定者们梦寐以求的计划。问题在于包括国防在内的机动支出仅占总预算的40%。社保支在支出中的权重很高，增长幅度也比较大；特别是社会保障（养老金）、医疗保险和医疗补助制度（针对老年人和贫困人群的健康保障计划）。

On pensions, the solution is clear if unpopular: people will need to work longer. 10

America should index the retirement age to longevity and make the benefit formula for upper-income workers less generous. The ceiling on the related payroll tax should be increased to cover 90% of earnings, from 86% now. 养老金方面的应对举措可能不太受欢迎，但是却非常明了：延长人们的工作年限。美国应该根据寿命调整退休年龄系数，同时应该调低高收入工人的福利。目前相关的工资税应税上限是收入的86%，这个比例应该增加到90%。

Health-care spending is a much tougher issue, because it is being fed by both the ageing of the population and rising per-person demand for services. Richer beneficiaries should pay more of their share of Medicare, while the generosity of the system should be kept in check by the independent panel set up under Mr Obama’s health reform to monitor services and payments. The simplest way for the federal government to restrain Medicaid would be to end the current system of matching state spending and replace this with block grants, which would give the states an incentive to focus on cost-control. 健康保障支出方面的问题要麻烦得多，因为人口老龄化现象和增高的人均服务需求共同促进了这项支出的增长。富裕的受益者应该为他们的医疗保险付出更多，同时保障体系的恩惠必须长期受都独立委员会的监察，该组织成立于奥巴马的健康改革过程中，指责是对服务和各项支付进行监督。联邦政府也有简单易行的方法来限制医疗补助制度的开销：取消各州相同的现行体系，代之以分类财政补贴，此举可以激励各州政府关注与支出控制。

Chainsaw you can believe in 电锯绝对值得信赖

Devising a plan that reduces the deficit, and eventually the debt, to a manageable size is relatively easy. Getting politicians to agree to it is a different thing. The bitter divide between the parties means that politicians pay a high price for consorting with the enemy. So Democrats cling to entitlements, and Republicans live in fear of losing their next party nomination to a tea-party activist if they bend on taxes. Even the president’s own bipartisan commission can’t agree on what to do. 设计方案来压缩目前的赤字、并最终缩减债务，使其达到可控的水平是非常容易的。困难的事让政客们同意这个方案。两党分歧之痛意味着政敌间的结交需要高昂的代价。因此民主党人紧抓社保支出；如果共和党人专注于税收变革，就会终日担心在下次党内选举中败给茶党。即使总统的两党工作组也无法决定下一步的举措。

But true leaders turn the hard into the possible. Two things should prompt Mr Obama. First, the politics of fiscal truth may be less awful than he imagines. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both won second terms after trimming entitlements or raising taxes. Polls in other countries suggest that nowadays tough love can sell. Second, in the long term economics will tell: unless it changes course, America is heading for a bust. If Mr Obama lacks the guts even to start tackling the problem, then ever more Americans, this paper and even those foreign summiteers will get ever more frustrated with him. 11

但真正的领袖可以胜任人所不能。奥巴马面前有两个提示：第一，财政真相政治后果应该没有他想象的那么恐怖，里根和克林顿就在削减社保计划或提高税收后谋得连任。其他国家的选举也表明今时今日专制的爱同样有市场。第二，从长远来看，除非美国可以改变发展方向，否则必然走向衰败。如果奥巴马连着手应对问题的勇气都没有，那么更多的美国民众、本刊和那些峰会的参与者对他将更加泄气。 Divided we fall 不合则亡
Britain and France need each other to continue as great(ish powers 英国和法国要想继续保持其全球大国（或准大国）的地位，两国就必须牢牢捆在一起
Nov 4th 2010 2010年11月4日

表1:防务能力的混合与重组 英国 法国
2009年国防预算 583亿美元 639亿美元
武装部队总人数 17.8万人 25万人
航空母舰 2艘 1艘
驱逐舰 6艘 11艘
护卫舰 17艘 20艘
攻击型潜艇 7艘

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6艘
作战飞机 300架 360架
武装直升机 233架 246架
战略导弹核潜艇 4艘 4艘
数据来源: ⅡSS；DASA/MOD：经济学人杂志社

THEY may not always see eye to eye, but when it comes to defence, the interests of France and Britain converge. The two countries are respectively the third and fourth biggest military spenders in the world. Both see themselves as global players, ready and willing to project expeditionary force. But fiscal austerity has threatened the ability of both to live up to those grandiose ambitions. Only by working much more closely together, they have concluded, can two medium-sized European countries hope to stay in the great-power game. Hence the 50-year defence and security co-operation treaty signed this week in London by David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy.
法国和英国偶尔可能也会出现一些纷争，但涉及到国防，他们的利益就无甚差别了。这两国的军事开支分别居世界第三和第四位。两国都认为自己是全球事务参与者，具有远距投送军事力量的能力与意愿。但紧缩的财政已经威胁到两国实现上述宏大目标的能力。这两个欧洲大国已经得出结论，要想继续参与全球大国的博弈，他们只有进行更加紧密地合作。正是有鉴于此，卡梅伦与萨科齐本周在伦敦签订了这项为期50年的防务与安全合作条约。

The main items in the pact are a combined joint expeditionary force and an agreement to operate aircraft-carrier strike groups using aircraft and escort vessels contributed by both countries. But much of the treaty deals with less glamorous equipment and capabilities. Training and maintenance for the new A400M transport aircraft that the two nations are buying will be pooled. Britain is keen to share its new A300-based aerial tankers, if a financial deal to do so can be reached.
该条约的主要条款包括组建一支联合远征部队和一个联合航母作战群，舰载机与护航舰只由两个国家分摊。但条约的大量条款涉及的都是不那么引人注目的装备与能力。这两个国家都正在购买A400M型军用运输机，这种新机型的培训与维护将联合进行。如果能够达成资金分摊的协议，英国是急切地想要两国共享其新购进的A300改型空中加油机。
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The two countries will jointly develop nuclear-submarine technologies, satellite communications and maritime-mine countermeasures. The big defence industries of both will be encouraged to co-operate on the next generation of surveillance drones and assorted new missiles, with the aim of forging a single prime European contractor for “complex weapons”.
两国将联合研发核潜艇技术，联合发展卫星通信和反水雷战的能力。将鼓励两国的大型国防工业企业合作研发新一代的无人侦察机和各种新型导弹，目标是要打造单一的“复杂武器系统”欧洲总承包商。

Most dramatically, a separate treaty has been signed on nuclear co-operation. This is remarkable, given the different approaches that France and Britain have taken towards their nuclear deterrents (Britain depends heavily on American kit, while France’s force de frappe is a supreme symbol of national sovereignty. With the blessing of the United States, Britain’s Aldermaston research establishment will concentrate on developing technology, while its French counterpart at Valduc will carry out simulated warhead testing.
最有戏剧性的是，两国还签订了一个单独的核合作条约。考虑到英法两国在构建核威慑力量上的不同做法，这一点颇为引人注目。（英国的核武系统严重依赖美国提供的装备，而法国的核攻击力则是其国家主权的最高象征）。由于有美国盟友的帮助，英国的奥尔德玛斯顿研究机构可以专注于研发技术，而法国位于瓦尔杜克（Valduc）的核研究机构就必须进行核弹头的模拟试验。

Predictably, there was much harrumphing in Britain’s jingoistic popular press. A few retired politicians were dragged out to reminisce about slights suffered at the hands of the perfidious Frogs. The reaction in France was more muted, perhaps because the agreement carefully avoids any of the visionary language about European architectures that excites French imaginations, but which many British Conservatives, such as the defence secretary, Liam Fox, viscerally loathe.
可以预见，在支持强硬外交政策的英国大众媒体上会出现一片不满和反对之声。还会拖出几个退休赋闲的政客来追忆背信弃义的法国佬在过去给英国带来的小小不快。法国的反应则要温和的多，原因也许是该协议小心翼翼地回避了对欧洲架构的预见性表述。只要提起欧洲架构就会激起法国人的想象力，但许多英国保守党人，如国防部长利亚姆?福克斯（Liam Fox）之流，就发自内心地厌恶之。

In fact, most of the objections raised seem either ignorant or anachronistic. Even before France rejoined NATO’s integrated military structure last year, British and French forces had frequently worked and fought together under the command of one or other country. With the exception of the Iraq controversy, the two have rarely found themselves on opposite sides during recent international crises. For example, Britain’s defence secretary during the Falklands war, John Nott, revealed in his 14

memoirs that France had been Britain’s staunchest ally, providing information that helped to render the Exocet anti-ship missiles used by Argentina ineffective, and supplying Mirage and Super-Etendard fighters for British Harrier pilots to pit themselves against in training.
事实上，大多数持反对观点的人似乎要么是无知，要么就是落伍于时代。甚至在法国去年重返北约军事一体化架构之前，英法两国的军队就已经频繁地在对方指挥下共同工作和作战。除了伊拉克战争的论战之外，两国在最近出现的国际危机中很少出现对立。例如，英国在马岛战争期间的国防部长约翰?诺特（John Nott）就在他的回忆录中透露，法国在这场冲突中是英国最坚定的盟友，法国提供的情报使阿根廷的飞鱼反舰导弹收效甚微，法国还提供“幻影”和“超军旗”式战斗机供英国的鹞式战斗机飞行员进行对抗训练。

Difficulties could arise, however, over shared use of the two countries’ aircraft carriers, if national priorities and policies do not coincide during future conflicts. One solution would be for Britain not to sell the second carrier it is currently building, which at present seems its likely fate, but to operate it on a timeshare basis with the French. That way it could be made available without caveats to whichever country needed it when its main ship was in refit (a three-year job required every seven years or so. Just don’t call it Trafalgar.
然而共用两国的航母的话，在未来可能爆发的冲突中如果出现国家利益优先和对外政策不相一致的情况，就可能会出现困难。一个解决办法就是英国不卖第二艘在建的航母（目前看来它可能面临胎死腹中的命运），而是与法国分时共享这艘航母。这样一来就可以在其航母整修期间（大约每航行七年左右要有三年时间进行整修），哪个国家需要它都可以不受限制的进行使用。但绝对不要把它命名为“特拉法尔加”号。

The liquefaction of hardware 硬件熔解

The rise of the virtual computer 虚拟计算机兴起

Nov 18th 2010

IMAGINE a personal computer that has two souls. One moment it is your work machine, complete with a set of corporate applications and tight security settings. Then it becomes an entertainment centre, allowing you to watch any video and download any program. 想象一下，一台个人电脑有两个化身，一会是你的工作机器，配有一套企业应用软件和严密的安全设置，一会又变成了一个娱乐中心，准许你随心所欲看视频，下程序。
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Thanks to a process called “virtualisation”, such computers are now being created. Ever more processing power and clever software are allowing devices of all kinds to separate from their hardware vessels and move to new homes. If this process continues as some expect, it will change computing radically. And more than one IT company will have to rethink how it does business. 多亏一种称为“虚拟化”的技术，这种电脑正被制造出来。处理能力日益强大，聪明软件越来越多，正让各种设备从所在的硬件容器中剥离出来，迁入新居。如若虚拟化进程，像某些人所料那般持续下去，就将从根本上改变计算机运作。而多家IT公司将不得不重新考虑，如何运用该技术做生意。

Virtualisation dates back to the age of mainframe computers. To make better use of them they were sometimes split into smaller “virtual machines”, each of which could run its own operating system and application. But the approach took off only in recent years, when VMWare, a software firm, applied it to servers, the powerful computers that populate today’s corporate data centres. VMWare and its main rivals, Citrix and Microsoft, have since developed all kinds of software tools to manage virtual machines—moving them between data centres, for example. 虚拟化始于大型机时代。为优化利用，大型机有时被分割成一些小型“虚拟机”，每个虚拟机都能运行自己的操作系统及应用软件。但此法近几年突然风行，当时，一家软件公司VMWare将其运用到服务器上，正是这些功能强大的服务器，构成了今天的企业数据中心。VMWare及其主要对手Citrix和Microsoft，那时起就开发了各种虚拟机管理软件工具，比如让虚拟机在数据中心间迁移的软件。

The success of server virtualisation has inspired IT firms and their customers to do the same thing with other types of hardware, such as devices to store data. Software now pools their capacity and allocates “virtual disks” as needed. Going further, Dropbox, an online storage service, saves identical files only once. Even large files can take only seconds to upload if they already exist somewhere on one of these firms’
disks. 服务器虚拟化的成功，启发IT公司及其顾客在其他类型的硬件（如数据存储设备）上，做同样的事。现在，软件可共用这些设备的存储容量，并按需分配“虚拟磁盘”。进一步来说，一种网络存储服务Dropbox，同一份文件仅存一次。即便是大文件，只要已存在这些公司某个磁盘的某处，上传也只需数秒。

The virtualisation of PCs is now under way. Many company computers can already work with applications that run on a central server. But start-ups are pushing the concept further. Desktone offers virtual desktops as an online service. NComputing, a maker of computer terminals, virtualises PCs so they can be shared by up to 30 users. It has already sold more than 2.5m devices, mostly to developing countries and schools. And technology from MokaFive can send an entire virtual machine—complete with operating systems, applications and data—over the network and install it on any PC. Eventually people may no longer need to carry laptops at all. Virtual computers, including data and applications, will follow them everywhere. 16

个人电脑虚拟化正在进行。许多公司的电脑已能使用运行在一台中心服务器上的应用软件。不过，一些新兴企业正推动此概念进一步深化。Desktone公司提供虚拟桌面网络服务。而一家电脑终端制造商NComputing公司，则将个人电脑虚拟化，使之能为多达30个用户共享。该公司已售出了超过250万台设备，大部分销往了发展中国家与学校。MokaFive公司的技术则能将一整台虚拟机——包括操作系统、应用软件及数据——在网络上迅速迁移，并安装在任一台个人电脑上。最终，人们也许根本不再需要随身携带笔记本电脑。虚拟计算机，包括数据与应用软件，将如影随形。

In the long run, smartphones and other mobile devices may also become shells to be filled as needed. Open Kernel Labs, a start-up in which Citrix has a stake, already lets smartphones run applications, multimedia and radio functions on a single processor, cutting manufacturing costs. Software from Citrix turns the iPad, Apple’s tablet computer, into a terminal for applications that run in a corporate data centre. 终究，智能电话与其他设备也可能变成空壳，按需填充各种软件数据。一家Citrix持股的新兴企业Open Kernel Labs，已使智能电话在一个单处理机上运行应用软件、实现多媒体及收音机功能，削减了制造成本。Citrix的软件，把苹果的平板电脑iPad，变成了一个应用软件终端，而这些软件运行在一个企业数据中心内。

How quickly will virtualisation advance? Gartner, a market-research firm, predicts that the overall market for virtualisation software will grow from $2.7 billion this year to $6.3 billion in 2014. There is certainly no lack of demand. Virtualisation lowers costs by enabling firms to make better use of their servers and buy fewer new ones. The technology also allows PCs to be maintained remotely, which is much cheaper. But improved reliability and security are even more of an attraction. Users of MokaFive, for instance, can relaunch their virtual machine should a computer virus infect it. And it can be shut down if a laptop is lost or stolen. 虚拟化步伐将会多快？市场调查公司Gartner预计，虚拟软件整体市场将从今年的27亿美元，增至2014年的63亿美元。需求当然不缺。虚拟化让企业优化使用服务器，减少新服务器采购，从而降低了成本。该技术也允许远程维护个人电脑，这相当便宜。不过，可靠性及安全性改善，则更具吸引力。例如，MokaFive的用户，一旦电脑染毒，虚拟机就重启。而要是其笔记本电脑丢失或被偷，虚拟机就会完全关闭。

Yet the technology also has to overcome a few hurdles. The virtualisation of servers is well understood, but for PCs and mobile devices the technique has yet to mature. In the longer run institutional barriers will prove more of a problem, argues Simon Crosby, Citrix’s chief technology officer. Virtualising IT systems, he says, is only the first step to automating their management. This is seen as a threat to existing workers and makes many IT departments hesitant to embrace the technology. 然而，该技术还须攻克几个障碍。服务器虚拟化，大家都很清楚，但对个人电脑及移动设备而言，该技术尚未成熟。Citrix公司首席技术官Simon Crosby表示，从更长远来看，制度障碍也将证实是个问题。他称，IT系统虚拟化仅是其管理自动化的第一步。这被在职员工视为一个威胁，令许多IT部门接受这种技术犹豫不决。

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Still, analysts believe virtualisation will win out. Its impact will be felt through the industry. The technology not only makes IT systems more flexible, but allows firms to switch vendors more easily—which will weigh on the vendors’ profits. Big software firms such as Microsoft and Oracle may be hit hardest. But many hardware-makers may suffer as well, since their wares will become even more of a commodity than they are today. 尽管如此，分析家认为虚拟化将最终胜出。整个IT业都将感受到其影响。该技术不仅使IT系统更为灵活，也让企业更换销售商更为容易，这将给这些销售商盈利造成压力。诸如Microsoft及Oracle之类的软件巨头可能受打击最重。但许多硬件制造商，由于其产品将变成比现在更有价值的一种商品，也可能遭受重创。

What’s up, BYOC?（注1） “自带电脑”如何？

Moreover, virtualisation makes it much easier to add new servers or storage devices. Alternatively, firms can simply rent extra capacity from operators of what are called “computing clouds”, such as Amazon Web Services. That outfit has built a network of data centres in which virtual machines and disks can be launched in seconds. As a result, IT systems will increasingly no longer be a capital expense（注2）, but an operational cost（注3）, like electricity. 此外，虚拟化使得增添新服务器或存储设备非常容易。如若不然，企业也能简单地从所谓的“计算云”运营商（如Amazon Web Services公司）那租用额外磁盘容量。这家厂商已建立了一个数据中心网络，其中的虚拟机及磁盘能在数秒内启动。结果，IT系统愈来愈不是一种资本支出，而是一种运营成本，跟电力一样。

Yet the most noticeable change for computer users will be that more employees will be allowed to bring their own PC or smartphone to work, says Brian Madden of TechTarget, a consultancy. Companies can install a secure virtual heart on private machines, doing away with the need for a separate corporate device. A “bring your own computer” or “BYOC” movement has already emerged in America. Companies such as Citrix and Kraft Foods pay their employees a stipend, which they can use to buy any PC they want—even an Apple Mac. 然而，电脑用户感受到的最显著变化，则是更多雇员将获准携带自己的个人电脑或智能电话工作，一家咨询公司TechTarget的Brian Madden这样说。企业可在私人机器上安装一个可靠的虚拟心脏，这也摆脱了对企业设备的单独需求。一种“自带电脑”或“BYOC”运动已在美国出现。像Citrix和Kraft Foods这样的公司，付给雇员津贴，让他们用其购买想要的任何电脑，甚或苹果Mac电脑。

Such innovations may help to ease growing tensions between workers and IT departments. New privacy regulations and rampant cybercrime are pushing firms to tighten control of company PCs and smartphones. At the same time more and more “digital natives（注4）” enter the workforce. They have grown up with the freewheeling internet and do not suffer boring black corporate laptops gladly. Giving workers more freedom while helping firms keep control may prove to be the biggest benefit of virtualisation. 18

这类创新或许有助于缓解员工与IT部门间日益紧张的关系。新的隐私规则出台，网络犯罪猖獗，正推动企业加强对公司个人电脑与智能电话的管控。与此同时，越来越多的“数码原住民”步入职场。他们与无拘无束的互联网一起长大成人，很高兴不用忍受单调乏味的公司黑笔记本电脑。给予员工更多自由，同时协助企业管控，或许证明是虚拟化的最大收益。

注1：What’s up, BYOC? 小标题源自美国1972年出品的电影“What’s up, Doc?”，中文片名一般译为《爱的大追踪》，或“出什么事了，大夫？ / 疯狂飞车大闹唐人街 / 爱的大逃亡”。

注2：capital expense Capital Spending/Capital Expenditures/Capital Expense 资本支出
某些支出—如购置厂房、机器、设备等—可以使以后多个会计年度受益而非当年消耗完毕，这种支出形成的企业的生产能力，称为资本支出(capital expenditures。当一个企业花钱购买固定资产或给已有固定资产增加价值时，这就产生了资本支出。在会计中，把支出记作资产的办法，称为资本化。
由于税收的目的，资本支出不能在它们被支付或发生的年度扣除成本，并且必须被资本化。一般的规则是，如果收购的物业的使用年限超过纳税的年限，成本必须被资本化。资本开支成本会在以上资产的使用时期被分期偿还或贬值。 如上所述，资本支出给资产或财产创造或增加了基准，而一旦资本支出调整，将决定出售或转让时的税务责任。
对任何公司的会计问题是，特定的支出是该被资本化还是被算作开销。某个月里被算作开销的支出会很简单的作为成本出现在当月的财务报表中。而资本化的开支，会很多年来分期偿还。资本化的开支会出现在资产负债表上。大多数普通的商业开支很明显的是资本化或是被算作开销，但是某些开支会因公司的偏好而被放在任何一类。

注3：operational cost 营业成本(Operating costs，也称经营成本、运营成本，是指企业所销售商品或者提供劳务的成本。营业成本应当与所销售商品或者所提供劳务而取得的收入进行配比。营业成本是与营业收入直接相关的，已经确定了归属期和归属对象的各种直接费用。营业成本主要包括主营业务成本、其他业务成本。 销售产品、商品和提供劳务的营业成本，是由生产经营成本形成的。工业企业产品生产成本（也称制造成本）的构成主要包括： 1.直接材料：包括企业生产经营过程中实际消耗的直接用于产品的生产，构成产品实体的原材料、辅助材料、备品备件、外购半成品、燃料、动力、包装物以及其他直接材料。 2.直接工资：包括企业直接从事产品生产人员的工资、奖金、津贴和补贴。 3.其他直接支出：包括直接从事产品生产人员的职工福利费等。 4.制造费用：企业可以根据自身需要，对成本构成项目进行适当调整。

注4：digital natives 从80年代就开始接触PC的人，现在通常都已过不惑之年。90年代中国PC进入普及阶段的用户，现在也都30出头。这些人经历了模拟时代(机械时代的种种生活方式和工具，他们试着去转变自己的使用习惯和思维方式，这些人可称为“数字移民(Digital Immigrants”。然而1985年之后出生的人，则大不相同：他们成长的年代，已经是数字化的年代。他们属于天生数字(Born Digital，而且习惯且依赖连接世界(Live Connected。这类人称为第一代“数字原住民(Digital Native”。
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A digital native is a person who was born after the general implementation of digital technology, and as a result, has had a familiarity with digital technologies such as computers, the Internet, mobile phones,and digital audio players over their entire lives. A digital immigrant is an individual who was born before the existence of digital technology and adopted it to some extent later. Alternatively, this term can describe people born in the latter 1970s or later, as the Digital Age began at that time; but in most cases the term focuses on people who grew up with 21st Century technology. This term has been used in several different contexts, such as education (Bennett, Maton & Kervin 2008 (in association with the term New Millennium Learners (OECD 2008.
More complicated than you think 比你想象的复杂
A new, giant virus is confounding old certainties 新的、巨型病毒正在挑战人类的思维定势 Oct 28th 2010
BIODIVERSITY is not just a matter of tigers and whales, or butterflies and trees, or even coral reefs and tuna. It is also about myriad creatures too small to see that live in numbers too large to count in ways too numerous to imagine. It is easy to forget, especially at meetings like the one to discuss the Convention on Biological Diversity that has been taking place in Nagoya under the auspices of the United Nations, that most of biology is in fact microscopic. Indeed, the more microscopic biology gets, the more diverse it becomes. 生物多样性不仅仅是指老虎和鲸鱼、蝴蝶和森林，甚至也不仅仅是珊瑚礁和金枪鱼。它还指各种小得无法看见、多得无法计算、生存方式令人无法想象的生物。尤其是在联合国主持在名古屋（Nagoya）召开的生物多样性大会上，人们很容易忘记讨论生物学的绝大部分事实上是关于微生物的。实际上，生物越微观，多样性也越明显。

In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising. But for those brought up on a textbook definition of what a virus is, it is still a bit of a shock. For CroV is not a very viruslike virus. It has 544 genes, compared with the dozen or so that most viruses sport. And it may be able to make its own proteins—a task that viruses usually delegate to the molecular machinery of the cells they infect. 从这个意义上讲，英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种新生物，不应该太出人意料。他们建议将其命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。但是对于那些从小到大就熟悉课本对病毒的定义的人而言，这还是让人有点儿让他们震惊。因为CroV是一种不太象病毒的病毒。它有544个基因，而大多数病毒只有十几个。此外，它还可能制造自己的蛋白质—而病毒通常将这一任务交给自己感染的细胞由其通过分子机械功能来完成。

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CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988. Despite the recentness of its discovery, C. roenbergensis is one of the commonest creatures on the planet. It is also reckoned by some, given that it hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator on Earth. It is found in every ocean. The samples of C. roenbergensis from which Dr Suttle and his team extracted their quarry were collected off the coast of Texas. CroV，正如其名字所表示的一样，是Cafeteria roenbergensis的一种寄生虫，而前者则是一种人们于1988年发现的以浮游生物为食的单细胞生物。尽管其发现历史不长，Cafeteria roenbergensis是我们这个星球上最常见的物种之一。此外，由于它猎杀、捕食其他细菌，有人据此推断它是地球上数量最多的捕食者。各大洋都能见到其身影。Scuttle和他的团队从中发现CroV的Cafeteria roenbergensis的样品就是来自德州海岸的海水。

To see a world in a grain of sand 从一粒沙子看到一个世界
That quarry’s nature, reported this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is not a complete surprise. A larger virus, called Mimivirus, which lives in freshwater amoebas, turned up in 2003 and a few other, similar, viruses have been found since then. But CroV is by far the biggest to come out of the sea. 本周的《美国国家科学院院刊》报道了这一新发现病毒的性质，这也并非完全出人意料。因为另一个比较大称为“Mimivirus”的病毒，是一种生活在淡水中变形虫，在2003年就被人发现，还有其他几个类似的病毒之后也相继被人发现。但是CroV是来自海洋的最大的病毒。

Those who like their categories cut and dried may wonder whether viruses are alive or not. Wise biologists do not struggle too much with such questions. Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection. That is enough for biology to claim them. As for CroV, those 544 genes (composed of 730,000 base pairs, the DNA letters in which the language of the genes is written mean its genome is bigger than those of several bacteria—creatures which everyone agrees are alive. 那些习惯于传统分类学的人可能想知道病毒是活的还是死的。真正明智的生物学家不太纠缠于这类问题。病毒有基因，能再生，需要应对自然选择的进化压力。对生物学而言，这足以让其有资格成为生物了。至于CroV，那些544个基因（由73万组碱基对组成，这是构成基因语言的DNA字母）表明其基因图谱比几种大家认为是活体的细菌生物要大。

The problem with categorical thinking in biology is that evolution does not work like that. It actually works by whatever works working. If an organism can successfully subcontract part of the business of metabolism to another while retaining the rest itself, rather than offloading the whole lot as most viruses do, then there are no rules to stop it happening. 在生物学上，对什么都要分门别类的思维面临的问题是生物进化的方式并非一成不变。进化实际上是不拘一格，随遇而安。如果一种生物能够成功地将部分新陈代谢工作分包给另一个生物，但同时又保留其余的新陈代谢工作，而不是象大多数病毒那样把工作全部推掉，那么，就没有任何规则阻止其进化。
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CroV seems to do just that. Besides the genes that relate to protein synthesis it has others which encode DNA repair mechanisms and still others which are involved with protein recycling and signalling within cells. This is not mere hijacking. It is tantamount to a complete personality transplant for the infected cell. Crov似乎正是这么做的。除与蛋白合成有关的基因外，它将DNA修复机制的编码工作以及细胞内蛋白的回收和发送信号工作都交给其他生物完成。这不仅仅是简单的劫持。这相当于将特性完整植入被感染的细胞。

About a third of CroV’s genes are similar to Mimivirus genes, suggesting they share a distant ancestor. On the other hand, two-thirds are not. A significant chunk of them seem to have been copied from bacteria. But the majority are unique, and previously unknown to science. A whole new chapter of life, in other words, has been opened. CroV的基因中，约有三分之一同Mimivirus基因类似，说明它们之间都拥有共同的祖先。从另一方面讲，它们之间还有三分之二的基因不同。其中很大一部分似乎是从细菌中复制的。但大多数基因在科学上特性明显，属于新发现的基因。换句话说，人类已经翻开了生命研究的新篇章。

This discovery, then—and the earlier one of C. roenbergensis itself—speak volumes, albeit in a microscopic language, about biodiversity. Two centuries after Carl Linnaeus invented the system now used to describe it, and a century after Charles Darwin worked out what causes it, the ability of that diversity to surprise is still staggering. 这一发现—以及早先发现的C. roenbergensis —充分说明了生物的多样性，尽管是以微生物的语言表述的。生物多样性至今依然让人眼花缭乱，目不暇接，尽管卡尔?林奈（Carl Linnaeus）200年前就发明了我们现在仍然使用的其描述体系，尽管达尔文100年前就找到了其发生的原因。
Science and Technology
译者心得：
1. 本文是科技文章，又是微生物的，很多业外人士有恐惧感（我也不例外），想象拉丁文名字就够头大的。但这类文章语言比较规范，逻辑性强，所以，通过专业工具书解决掉最困难的名称之外，其他部分的翻译，同一般英文一样。

2. 几个词汇的处理。首句中的“matter”很多人译为“事情”，“是关于什么什么的事情”，这样的译文读起来很罗嗦，其实担子大一些，置之不理，中文意思也出来了。另外，“Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection. That is enough for biology to claim them”本段中的“Claim”不太好翻，for biology to claim them，让生物学对它们有主张，让生物学认领它们，其实就是“它们有资格属于生物范畴”的意思，如果直译，估计译者本人也觉得不是滋味。

3. 一个复杂句子的处理。“In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of 22

the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising”，先看一下直翻，“从这个意义上讲，由英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种他们建议命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis 病毒的生物，或CroV，不应该太出人意料。”这样的句子不能说不对，但但起来非常罗嗦，翻译腔太强，因此，在准确表述愿意的前提下，我译为“从这个意义上讲，英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种新生物，不应该太出人意料。他们建议将其命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。”将原句拆为两句，使其更符合中文行文习惯。这在翻译中很常见，毕竟译出的东西是让中国人看的。

4. 一个简单句型的处理。“It is found in every ocean”，这句话很简单，它被发现于各大洋，它存在于各大洋等等，都不错。但鉴于前文出现“hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator ”这类动作性很强的语句，我们不妨在这里也“生动”一些，译为“各大洋都能见到其身影”。

5. 关于逻辑性。翻译其实就是理解外语的逻辑性，然后将其外语按照译入语的逻辑性进行翻译。本文中CroV和Cafeteria roenbergensis什么关系？不要被名字吓倒，注意这句“CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988”，说得是CroV其实是寄生在Cafeteria roenbergensis上的一种生物，是宿主身上的一种病毒。关系弄清了，下文接着讲的都是宿主Cafeteria roenbergensis的事情，它们如何捕食，生存在什么地方。这其实也就间接介绍了CroV。

6. 名言警句的引用。《经济学人》的文章经常不经意间引用一些名言警句、诗词歌赋，恰当地表述其意义。本文不例外。“To see a world in a grain of sand”在本文中就有类似中文“麻雀虽小，五脏俱全”的意思，即使是一粒沙子，那上面生存着芸芸众生。建议大家看一部动画片，“Horton hears a who”，里边讲的是一头大象如何同一朵蒲公英上的生命群体沟通的故事。这句话来自英国诗人William Blake的一首诗： “A Grain of Sand 一粒沙子
William Blake/威廉.布莱克 To see a world in a grain of sand, And a heaven in a wild flower, Hold infinity in the palm of your hand, And eternity in an hour. 从一粒沙子看到一个世界， 从一朵野花看到一个天堂， 把握在你手心里的就是无限， 永恒也就消融于一个时辰。”（摘自网络）

总之，翻译需要什么都懂，否则译出的东西要么让人如坠五里雾中，要么让人笑掉大牙，因此，译完之后，多次校对，是必不可少的步骤。

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Raúl the pragmatist 实用主义者劳尔

Bold changes intended to preserve Cuban communism may herald the beginning of its end 旨在保护古巴共产主义的大胆变革反而有可能变成了掘墓人

Nov 11th 2010

SHORTLY after he took charge of Cuba from his ailing brother, Fidel, in 2006, Raúl Castro declared that his country’s moribund communist economy needed to change. But his failure to make anything more than marginal adjustments disappointed hopes that he would follow Chinese and Vietnamese communist leaders in combining capitalist economics and growing social freedom with continued party control. 劳尔.卡斯特罗2006年从他罹病的兄长—菲德尔卡.斯特罗手中接过了执掌古巴的大权，不久之后他宣称祖国的经济处于垂死边缘，亟需改变。但他最大的失败在于只进行不管痛痒的调整，这让人们的期望大大落空；大家原以为他可以效法中国和越南的共产党领导者，将资本主义经济及日益增长的社会自由性与党的持续控制有效的结合在一起。

Now, at last, Mr Castro is showing signs of boldness. Over the past few weeks he has launched some potentially far-reaching changes. By April 1st 500,000 Cubans will be laid off from their state jobs and encouraged to make their own living in small businesses. Over the next two or three years, another 800,000 are likely to join them. Eventually up to two Cubans in five will no longer work for the state. 从现在的形式看来，卡斯特罗先生最终还是显现出了果敢的迹象。过去数周时间里，他推行了一些极其深远的变革举措。截至到4月1日，50万古巴民众丢掉了国家工作的铁饭碗，政府鼓励他们用小买卖自谋生路。未来2-3年的时间中，另外80万人也将加入下岗大军的队伍。最终将有五分之二的古巴人不会再为国家工作。

This week Mr Castro convened a much-postponed Congress of the Communist Party for late April: its job will be to bless the new economic model (see article. Meanwhile, the government has released more than 50 political prisoners. Two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is Cuban communism finally on the way out? 本周卡斯特罗先生召开了从4月底一直推迟到现在的共产党代表大会，会议的主旨是批准全新的经济模式歌；与此同时，政府已经释放了超过50名政治犯。在柏林墙倒塌20年后的今天，难道古巴共产主义最终还是难逃过时的命数？

Any answer must be hedged about with caveats. The economists advising Mr Castro are barred from talking of “reform”. In its guidelines for the party congress, the leadership declares that “only socialism [ie, communism] is capable of overcoming 24

our difficulties and preserving the gains of the revolution” and that in the new economy “planning will be paramount, not the market.” No Cuban official has matched Deng Xiaoping’s embrace of “market socialism”, let alone his (perhaps apocryphal injunction that “to get rich is glorious”. The welcome release of prisoners seems merely to have been a move to deflect outside criticism after the death of one of them in a hunger strike, rather than a first step in dismantling the island’s police state. Indeed the army is playing a bigger role in the economy and in government. 任何答案都必须谨小慎微。给卡斯特罗先生提供咨询的经济学家们被禁止谈论改革。领导在会议纲领中指示“只有社会主义，暨共产主义才有能力克服当前的艰难困苦，并保持革命取得的胜利果实”；同时还指出，在新经济模式中“占据最高地位的是计划，而不是市场”。没有一个古巴官员可以达到邓小平的高度，领悟到“社会主义市场”的真谛，更不必说他“致富最光荣”的命令了（也许这是杜撰出来的）。在一名囚徒因绝食斗争送命后，深受欢迎的释放囚犯行为似乎只是为了转移外界的批判，而非迈出了废除本岛极权国家的第一步。实际上军界才是在经济和政府中更为重要的角色。

Yet Raúl’s reforms go much further than Fidel’s reluctant acceptance of foreign investment and limited self-employment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially reversed on the appearance of a new benefactor, Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. For the first time since the 1960s Cubans will be able to employ other Cubans (even though the constitution bans such “exploitation”. Many of the rules under which these new businesses will operate are still being drawn up. But it seems that Cubans will now be able to get loans and rent and buy property. Other changes are likely to follow. Mr Castro talks of gradually eliminating the free food rations that Cubans get, and moving towards targeted social assistance (as elsewhere in Latin America. The corollary is that wages will have to go up—and increasingly they will be set in the market. 苏联解体后，菲德尔极不情愿的接纳了境外投资和有限的自由职业者；然而劳尔的改革比他的兄长深入很多，在委内瑞拉的大恩人查韦斯登台后，部分举措与从前大相径庭。从上世纪60年代至今，尽管宪法禁止这类“剥削”，但古巴人首次可以对本国公民进行雇佣。很多对新型企业的生产经营进行规范的法规还正在规划中；但古巴人似乎已经可以获得贷款、出租房屋以及购买不动产。一些其他的变革也很有可能紧随其后。卡斯特罗提及逐渐取消古巴民众正在获得的免费的食物配给，而是同拉美其他地区一样，向着计划好的社会救济发展。必然出现的结果是工资不得不上调，并且日益受到市场的控制。

In all this Mr Castro is bowing to reality. He has been withering in his criticism of the featherbedding that has bankrupted the state. He has also refused to blame the American economic embargo for problems which he rightly says are self-inflicted. His pragmatism has finally won out against his brother’s doctrinaire Utopianism. 卡斯特罗在这些方面都屈从于现实：他对于导致国家破产的额外雇工进行了极尖刻的批判；同时也拒绝对美国采取贸易禁运所造成的问题进行批判，他认为这些问题都是自寻烦恼。在卡斯特罗兄弟的较量中，劳尔的使用主义最终战胜了菲德尔教条的乌托邦主义。

Apart from the economy, the other big task facing Mr Castro, who is 79 (and Fidel 84, is to start handing over power to a younger generation. That may come after the 25

party congress next year. In the meantime, his new boldness represents an opportunity for those who hope that Cuba will eventually join the rest of Latin America in accepting democracy and the market economy, for once the market’s green shoots appear they tend to flourish. 除了经济问题以外，现年79岁了劳尔（菲德尔已经84岁了）所面临的更艰巨的任务是开始着手将全力传递到年轻一代手中，不过这将是明年党代会以后的事情了。同时，对于那些希望古巴最终可以加入拉美其他国家的行列，接受民主和市场经济的人来说，他果敢的新政代表着希望；只要市场经济出现一抹新绿，必将是一派繁花似锦的景象。

How to help kill communism 怎样搭把手，灭了共产主义

Outsiders should take their lead from the common position that Europe adopted in 1996, which allows it to help in “the progressive and irreversible opening of the Cuban economy” while predicating closer friendship on moves towards democracy. Offering training and credit—as Brazil has done—to Cuba’s incipient private sector would be a good move. Rewarding Cuba for releasing prisoners who should never have been locked up in the first place—as Miguel Moratinos, Spain’s recently sacked foreign minister, wanted—would not. 局外人应该从1996年欧洲采用的共同立场中着手，旨在帮助“古巴进行先进且不可逆的经济改革”，同时在走向民主的道路上还能建立日益深厚的友谊。象巴西一样给古巴的早期私营经济提供培训和信贷，不失为一个很好的尝试。如果象最近遭解雇的西班牙外长Miguel Moratinos,所希望的那样，古巴因为释放那些原本就不应该遭到逮捕的犯人而得到奖励，就不是一个好的尝试。

America’s embargo remains as futile and counter-productive as ever. Although Barack Obama has commendably reversed George W. Bush’s restrictions on visits and remittances by Cuban-Americans, Republican control of Congress will make it even less likely that the embargo will be dismantled. That’s a great shame. The embargo has allowed the Castros to pose as proud Cuban nationalists standing up to a bullying hegemon and thus helped them cling to power. If change is at last under way it is despite the embargo, not because of it. 美国的贸易禁运一如既往的无效甚至是达到了反效果。奥巴马已经很好的撤销了小布什针对古巴裔美国人实施的拜访及汇款禁令，但共和党掌舵的国会让接触贸易禁运的可能性变得更加渺茫；这将是非常大的遗憾。贸易禁运让卡斯特罗兄弟摆出一副古巴民族主义者的英雄形象，直面恃强凌弱的至高强权；他们更是借此紧握政权。如果说改变正在发生，那这些改变不是因贸易禁运而起，甚至无视它的存在。 Lebanon and the region 黎巴嫩与中东地区

Can there be justice as well as stability? 既要正义也要稳定，可能吗？

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As the UN prepares to announce indictments for a series of murders and assassinations, the mood in Lebanon is getting edgy 联合国准备宣布针对一系列谋杀案的起诉，黎巴嫩人的心情日渐紧张

Nov 11th 2010 | Cairo

IT IS the strangest of courtroom dramas. Distinguished judges and a prosecutor sit in a sleepy suburb of the Dutch capital, The Hague. The case has plenty of victims: 61 people, including Lebanon’s then prime minister, Rafik Hariri, were murdered and 494 injured in a spree of bombings and assassinations that racked Lebanon from 2004 to 2008. But though the UN-sponsored Special Tribunal for Lebanon has yet to convene or to charge anyone for the crimes, the impending trial threatens not only to reignite a firestorm in Lebanon, but also to spread sectarian tensions across the Middle East and to vex relations even more between the region’s big adversaries, Iran and the United States. If Lebanon were to blow up again, Israel and Syria could well step in once more, turning the current Middle East peace process into a slide back towards war.
这是一部最为怪诞的法庭剧。尊贵的法官大人们与检察官坐在荷兰首都海牙郊外昏昏欲睡。此案受害者甚多：从2004至2008年间发生了一系列疯狂的爆炸和暗杀事件，包括黎巴嫩前总理拉菲克?哈里里（Rafik Hariri）在内共有61人被害，494人受伤。这些事件使黎巴嫩陷入痛苦之中。尽管联合国成立了黎巴嫩问题特别法庭，但尚未开庭或指控任何人对上述罪行负责。即将到来的开庭审判不仅可能引燃黎巴嫩国内的火药桶，而且还可能将教派冲突扩散到整个中东地区，对本地区最大的一对冤家——伊朗和美国的关系火上浇油。如果黎巴嫩内战再次爆发，以色列和叙利亚也很有可能再次介入，如此将导致目前的中东和平进程发生逆行，滑向另一场中东战争。

Few foresaw this when the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the car-bombing of February 2005 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, when Mr Hariri, a billionaire Sunni who was seeking his sixth turn at running the government, was assassinated along with 22 others. That sparked a furious popular backlash, prompting the exit of Syrian troops who had lingered, increasingly unwanted, to enforce peace after Lebanon’s civil war of 1975-90. Then followed the electoral triumph of Mr Hariri’s pro-Western coalition, known as the March 14th alliance, after the date of a big anti-Syrian demonstration. Many Lebanese, as well as the UN’s first investigating team, assumed that Syria had arranged Mr Hariri’s murder, and expected the case’s swift resolution.
2005年2月在黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特发生了一起汽车炸弹爆炸事件，当时伊斯兰逊尼派的亿万富翁哈里里正在寻求第六次就任黎巴嫩总理一职，在这起暗杀中哈里里与其他22人一同遇难。当联合国安理会下令对这起事件进行调查时，没有任何人预见到其后果会如何。这一事件引发了公众愤怒的反应，促使了叙利亚的撤军行动。黎巴嫩于1975至1990年间爆发了内战，27

叙利亚随后派出了这支维和部队，这支部队尽管愈来愈不受欢迎，但之前一直赖着不走。接着，在随后进行的一场大规模反叙利亚示威游行后，哈里里的亲西方盟友，所谓的“3?14联盟”获得了选战的胜利。许多黎巴嫩人以及联合国派出调查此案的第一个调查团都认为是叙利亚策划了哈里里的谋杀案，并预期此案能够得到迅速解决。

It was not to be. Over the next three years sporadic bombings and shootings targeted prominent backers of the March 14th alliance, Christian areas, and Lebanese officers involved in the investigation. Even as the investigators’ brief widened to include these later attacks, their credibility fell when it emerged that key witnesses implicating Syria had apparently made up their testimony.
但这是不可能的。在随后的三年内又陆续出现了几起针对“3?14联盟”支持者中有影响力的人士、基督教派系人士及参与调查此案的黎巴嫩官员的爆炸和枪击事件。正当调查人员们将调查范围扩大到后来的这些袭击事件时，人们对调查小组的信任却下降了。因为此时关键证人暗示叙利亚显然是编造了证词。

Meanwhile, March 14th’s pro-Syrian adversaries, led by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia which emerged strengthened from a war with Israel in July 2006, mounted a tenacious and effective campaign to challenge the pro-Western faction. This culminated in an invasion of central Beirut in May 2008 by Hizbullah gunmen that forced March 14th to accept a power-sharing deal. Hizbullah and its allies thereby secured a veto over government decisions but at the cost of deepening the bitter schism that now largely pits Lebanon’s Sunnis and Shias, each with nearly one-third of the population, against each other, and splits the third who are Christian into sparring factions backing one side or another.
此时，“3?14联盟”的对手，由真主党领导的亲叙利亚的黎巴嫩什叶派政党暨民兵组织通过2006年7月与以色列的一场战争而强大起来，他们展开了一场挑战亲西方派别的顽强而有效的运动。这场夺权运动的高潮出现在2008年5月，真主党武装人员闯入贝鲁特市中心，用武力迫使“3?14联盟”接受一项权力分享协议。真主党及其盟友从而获得了对政府所作决定的否决权，但其代价是加深了教派的分裂，使黎巴嫩的逊尼派和什叶派间的深沟难以与逾越。这两个派系各占有黎巴嫩近1/3的人口，双方水火不相容，并使黎巴嫩另1/3信仰基督教的人口也分裂成两派，他们支持伊斯兰派系的一方或另一方，争吵不休。

Since then, as the tribunal’s work has dragged on, many Lebanese have grown weary of the whole process. Lately, this weariness has turned to alarm. The court is expected to issue an indictment soon. Leaks strongly suggest it will not accuse Syria but rather senior officers of Hizbullah itself. The implications of such a charge are explosive. The party has long exalted its role as a heroic protector of Lebanon, justifying its impressive arsenal on the grounds, however implausible to outsiders, that its weapons are trained solely on Israeli invaders and not fellow Lebanese.
自那以后，随着特别法庭的开庭审判一拖再拖，许多黎巴嫩人已经对整个过程感到了厌倦。最近，这种厌倦的情绪变得让人吃惊。预计该法庭很快就会签发一项起诉书。据透漏出的消28

息，这份起诉书很可能不会指控叙利亚，而将指控真主党高级官员为暗杀事件的主谋。这样一份起诉书将产生爆炸性的后果。真主党长期以来一直自封为的黎巴嫩英勇的保护者，将之作为维持其庞大武装的冠冕堂皇的理由，但外人难以相信其枪口只是对准以色列侵略者而不是黎巴嫩同胞的说法。

Along with Hizbullah’s devoted followers, many non-Shias readily accept such arguments. But should Hizbullah be proven to have mounted a systematic campaign of extermination against Sunni Muslim and Christian political opponents in Lebanon, the party’s reputation would be severely damaged, along with that of its main backer, Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made a recent festively triumphant visit to Lebanon.
与真主党的忠实追随者一道，许多非什叶派黎巴嫩人也准备接受这种说法。真主党策划了针对黎巴嫩逊尼派穆斯林及基督教政治对手的系统消灭行动一旦获得证实，该党连同其主要后台——伊朗的声望都将受到严重损害。伊朗总统内贾德最近刚刚结束了黎巴嫩节日一般喜气洋洋的访问。

Mr Hariri’s son Saad, who now leads March 14th as Lebanon’s prime minister, has quietly reassured Hizbullah that he would publicly insist that any of its members implicated in the killings would be considered merely rogue actors. Conveniently also, the man most widely believed to have orchestrated the killings is dead. Imad Mughniyeh, well known since being implicated in bombings and hostage-takings during Lebanon’s civil war, headed Hizbullah’s special operations forces, and was a key link to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard before his unexplained assassination in Damascus in February 2008. Curiously, the killings in Lebanon stopped abruptly at the same time.
哈里里的儿子萨阿德现在是“3?14联盟”的领导人，也是黎巴嫩现任总理，他私下向真主党保证他将公开坚持其观点，即任何与这起暗杀事件有牵连的真主党成员都将被视为仅仅是制造了一起无赖行为。更便当的是，人们普遍认为是精心策划了这起暗杀事件的人已经死了。伊迈德?穆尼耶（Imad Mughniyeh）是真主党特种作战部队的首脑，也是真主党同伊朗革命卫队保持联系的一个关键人物，他以黎巴嫩内战期间制造了一系列爆炸和劫持人质事件而臭名昭著，2008年2月他在发生在大马士革的一场难以解释的暗杀中身亡。令人奇怪的是，同一时间内黎巴嫩的暗杀事件突然停止了。

But Hizbullah, apparently confident in its strength, rejects any suggestion of its involvement. Instead, its leaders have attacked the tribunal with growing vigour, accusing it of being an American tool and of ignoring purported evidence of Israel’s hand in the killings. In Beirut last month party loyalists posing as a pack of angry veiled women scratched, punched and bit members of a team from the UN investigation in southern Beirut. Hizbullah leaders followed this staged provocation with denunciations of the UN’s supposed affront to the virtue of Lebanese womanhood, declaring that henceforth any co-operation with the tribunal would be equated to collaboration with the “Zionist enemy”.
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真主党显然是对自身实力信心满满，拒绝接受任何它参与了谋杀的指控。相反，其领导人攻击特别法庭的调门不断升高，指责该法庭为美国的工具，对传说中以色列制造了这起谋杀的证据不予采信。上个月在贝鲁特，一群真主党的支持者扮成蒙着面纱的愤怒妇女，对来自贝鲁特南部的联合国调查人员是又挠又咬又打。真主党领导人在这起挑衅事件后谴责联合国调查人员冒犯了黎巴嫩妇女的高贵操守，声称今后任何与特别法庭的合作行为都将被视为与“犹太复国主义敌人”同流合污。

The party’s allies have made a noisy issue of the initial false testimony cited by investigators and long since discarded, in an effort to discredit the entire judicial process. More ominously, voices sympathetic to Hizbullah whisper that its militia, widely seen as far tougher than Lebanon’s ill-equipped conscript army, is ready to take swift control of ports, borders and main cities. Such a move might well provoke Israeli generals, whose itch to tame the Shia party is as intense as it was when they launched their fierce but inconclusive war in 2006, after a spat between Hizbullah and an Israeli border patrol.
真主党的盟友们抓住调查人员最初采信了伪证的问题小题大做，闹得沸沸扬扬。其实这个伪证被废弃已久，他们这样做的目的无非是千方百计想抹黑整个司法调查过程。更严重的是，真主党的同情者们透漏说，真主党民兵武装正在准备采取行动以迅速控制黎巴嫩的港口、边境和主要城市。真主党民兵武装的实力远远超过黎巴嫩装备低劣的正规军，这已经成了人们的普遍看法。此举很可能会激怒以色列的将军们，他们对驯服什叶派武装的冲动与发动2006年那场战争时同样强烈。那场战争的起因是真主党武装与以色列边境巡逻队间出现的摩擦。战争的过程非常惨烈，但无果而终。

In Lebanon’s polarised landscape Hizbullah’s large core of loyalists is unlikely to be shaken, even by firm evidence of the party’s involvement in the killing of Mr Hariri and others. Some of its allies, however, especially in the Christian camp, may prove less immune to repulsion. For such a small country, even one with such a violent past, 555 dead and wounded is a big number. Lebanese nerves are jangling.
在黎巴嫩泾渭分明的政治版图中，即使有明确的证据证实真主党卷入了暗杀哈里里和其他人的行动，真主党的大批核心支持者也不太可能出现动摇。然而真主党的一些盟友，尤其是基督教派营垒中的盟友，也许会因此而出现离心的倾向。对于黎巴嫩这样一个小国，即使过去暴力事件不断，555人的死伤也绝对不是一个小数目。这件事正在刺激着黎巴嫩人的神经。

Pros clicking at war An American firm wants to turn computer games into a global spectator sport
电脑游戏
职业选手的鼠标大战
一家美国公司试图将电脑游戏变成世界级的观赏性体育项目

Oct 28th 2010 30



Arriving for a big e-sports match参加电竞大赛 THE first round is over and 32 of the world’s best professional computer-game players are through to the next stage of the Global Starcraft 2 League being played in Seoul, South Korea. Over the next two weeks the players, including the reigning champion, Kim Won-ki (better known by his online moniker “FruitDealer”, will marshal their armies, ponder their strategies and crush their foes. The finalists will play in front of an audience of thousands (and hundreds of thousands more online for an $87,000 first prize and the respect due the best Starcraft 2 player on the planet.
第一轮比赛硝烟落定，世界上最优秀的32名职业电脑游戏选手登上了新的舞台，参加在韩国首尔举行的星际争霸2世界联赛。卫冕冠军金宏基（大家更熟悉他在线上使用的ID“水果贩子”）也在这批选手当中。在接下来的两周时间里，他们将运筹帷幄，挥师征战，直指敌酋。进入决赛的选手将在数千名观众（以及数以十万计的在线观众）面前争夺8.7万美元的奖金，以及全世界最好的星际2选手这一头衔。

This is e-sports, or professional computer-gaming, at its highest level. Just like football or baseball, computer games can be played competitively and in front of paying spectators. South Korea, where the original Starcraft game was released in 1998, is the spiritual home of e-sports.
这就是电子竞技（或者说职业化电脑游戏）的最高盛会。像足球和棒球一样，电脑游戏也成了一项具有竞赛性质的运动，可以吸引付费的观众。1998年，星际争霸在韩国首发，从那之后，韩国成了电子竞技精神上的故乡。

South Korean fans watch games broadcast on cable television and the players are celebrities. Teams flush with sponsorship money pay stars salaries on top of their prize money. (One player, Lee Yoon-Yeol, aka “Nada”, is rumoured to earn around $200,000 a year; a journeyman player might make $20,000. Now Activision Blizzard, the California-based company that developed the Starcraft games, is keen to spread the popularity of e-sports in the West.
韩国的电竞爱好者通过有线电视观看比赛，电竞选手也都成了名人。战队通过赞助商筹集资金，再按照获得的奖金为明星玩家发薪水。据称，绰号Nada的选手李云龙每年大约能赚20万美元，而一位新人选手也差不多能拿2万美元左右。星际争霸的开发者，总部位于加州的动视-暴雪公司正致力于在西方提升电子竞争的流行度。

Will it work? Professional computer-gaming in the West has been around for several years, with outfits like the Electronic Sports League in Europe and Major League Gaming in America. But it has never taken off to the extent that it has in South Korea. Activision Blizzard thinks that will change as faster broadband makes it easier to broadcast games over the internet. The company designed Starcraft 2 with spectators 31

in mind and has flown famous Korean players to America to play an exhibition match. GomTV, the Korean firm that runs the league, is providing English commentary on games and it has opened the tournament to any non-Korean player that can manage to qualify.
这种努力是否能够获得成果？职业电子竞争在西方也已经开展了不少年头了，在欧洲有电子体育联赛（ESL），美国则有游戏大联盟（MLG），然而其发展程度始终没有达到韩国的水平。动视-暴雪认为，随着宽频网络的发展，在网络上转播比赛会变得更加容易，这种局面也会随之改变。在星际争霸2的设计中，公司始终以竞技性为核心理念，还邀请韩国选手到美国打了一场表演赛。韩国方面负责运营这次表演赛的GomTV公司提供了英文解说，并表示支持所有非韩国选手参加预选赛。

Advertisers are attracted by the ability of e-sports to target an audience with plenty of spending money; Sony Ericsson is sponsoring the tournament in Seoul. The average American gamer is in his 30s and well-educated. With sponsorship comes the money necessary to attract players to pursue computer gaming as a career, says Sean Plott (better known as “Day[9]”, an American player-turned-commentator. Intel recently sponsored a European tournament with a $15,000 prize pool. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exporting e-sports to the West is a lingering belief that playing computer games is not a proper job—an idea that would no doubt sound familiar to pioneers of professional sports from tennis to snooker.
由于电子竞技面向的观众具有相当的消费能力，广告商也非常感兴趣。索尼-爱丽信赞助了在首尔举行的比赛。美国的游戏玩家平均年龄都在30岁以上，且受过良好的教育。Sean Plott（即著名选手Day[9]）曾经是一名电竞选手，现在改行做了解说员。他表示随着赞助商的加入，电子竞技会有更多的资金来源，也会鼓励电脑游戏的玩家将电子竞技作为自己的职业。因特尔最近就为一项欧洲电竞赛事提供了15000美元赞助作为资金。也许将电子竞技引入西方国家的最大障碍，是人们仍然认为玩电脑游戏并不能算一份真正的工作。这种想法听起来并不陌生，在网球和斯诺克这些职业体育的发展过程中，其行业先锋无疑也听到过类似的声音。
Silver lining 银光闪闪
Gold's poor relation is on a winning streak 黄金的穷二弟阔起来了 Sep 30th 2010

AT THE first Olympic games of the modern era in 1896, winners were awarded silver medals. Since then the metal has had to get used to second-class status. But for some time now silver prices have been outpacing those of gold (see chart, its flashier neighbour on the periodic table. On September 29th silver exceeded $22 an ounce, a price not seen since 1980 when the Hunt brothers, a pair of Texan oil barons, unwisely attempted to corner the market. Then silver spiked as high as $50 an ounce before the strategy unravelled, sending the price crashing and the Hunts back to the oil business. 32

在1896年第一届现代奥运会上，冠军获得的奖牌是银质的。从那以后，白银便沦为了老二的象征。不过，近来银价上扬之速已超过黄金（见图，银价一直压着它在元素周期表上的光鲜邻居一头）。9月29日，银价突破22美元/盎司。上一次白银达到如此高度还要追溯到1980年，当时德州石油大亨亨特兄弟（Hunt brothers）妄图操纵银市，使银价一度站上了50美元/盎司。接着，他们的如意算盘破产，银价随之崩盘，兄弟俩只能回去继续做石油生意。

The explanation for the steady rise of silver this time round is less dramatic. But high prices have a better chance of enduring. For investors, silver and gold have much of the same allure. The combination of a weak dollar, low interest rates and economic uncertainty that has convinced some to buy gold and pushed its price up to around $1,300 an ounce has also encouraged them to put their money into other likely-looking stores of value. Silver not only offers investors diversity but it is also supported by real industrial demand. 此次银价稳步上升背后的就没有如此精彩的故事了。但此次银价高企可能会持续更长时间。对投资者而言，白银与黄金吸引力相当。弱势美元、低利率以及经济不确定性促使人们大笔购入黄金，将金价推上1300美元/盎司；也促使他们把钱投向与黄金相似的价值储藏物。白银不但可以为投资者提供多元化之选，而且其价格还受到真实产业需求的支持。

Whereas around 25-30% of gold is bought by investors, only about a tenth of global silver production goes the same way. Roughly half the world’s silver goes to industrial users (the balance is accounted for by jewellery and other silverware, although their identity has undergone a huge shift over the past decade. 大约25~30%的黄金是由投资者购买的，而白银的这一比例只有大约10%。大约有一半的白银被用于工业用途（其余则被制成首饰和银器），不过数十年来用途不尽相同。

Old-fashioned film for cameras required mountains of silver. According to Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, photographic demand for silver has fallen by more than 60% in the past decade. Even in 2004, when the popularity of digital cameras was already well established, the photographic industry consumed 5,600 tonnes of silver, a fifth of total production. That compares with just 9% in 2009. 老式胶片需要大量使用白银。据投资银行美林公司的数据，过去十年摄影业的白银需求量下降了六成以上。在2004年数码相机已开始流行时，摄影业年白银消费量仍高达5 600吨，相当于产量的二成。到2009年已下降到9%。

New uses for the metal plugged the gap left by film. Silver is widely used in electronics, whether in buttons for TVs, in membrane switches in computer keyboards or as a coating for CDs and DVDs. But the great hope for silver is the solar-power industry. Photovoltaic cells, the technology used in 70% of solar panels, contain silver. Although other technologies that do not use silver are on the rise, heavy government subsidies are forecast to help keep the solar industry growing. 新用途填补了胶片需求萎缩留下的空白。白银被广泛用于电子器件，包括电视按钮、计算机键盘薄膜开关以及CD和DVD碟片涂层。但白银的未来需求主要存在于太阳能产业。70%的太阳能面板使用含银的光伏电池。尽管不使用白银的技术正在不断发展，但政府的大幅补贴预计仍将助太阳能产业蓬勃发展。
33


Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it. The same cannot be said for supply. As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world’s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines. So ramping up production is difficult. Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004. Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal. 发展中国家对白银的需求可能持续上升。特别是中国，已由白银出口国变为进口国。供给方的情形则非如此。德意志银行的迈克尔?刘易斯（Michael Lewis）指出，白银供给中有75%是铜、铅和锌矿开采过程中的副产品。因此大举增加产量并不容易。2009年，白银总供给量为27 650吨，只比2004年略高。或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也不会感到多沮丧了。 本主题由 System 于 2010-10-11 23:00 解除限时高亮 评分 收藏5 分享0 0 0 sometimes naive 回复 引用 举报 返回顶部
anchine 发短消息 加为好友 anchine 当前离线 在线时间13小时 最后登录2010-12-17 注册时间2010-9-25 积累0 点 现金64 GBP 奖励译文0 次 本周之星0 次 原创译作0 篇 阅读权限10 积分1 帖子5 精华0 主题0 UID131094 新人

新人, 积分 1, 距离下一级还需 1 积分 注册时间2010-9-25 原创译作0 篇 积分1 帖子5 2楼 发表于 2010-10-4 22:49 |只看该作者 Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal. 或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也会感到多沮丧了。

翻译反了吧！ Ambac's fall Ambac倒闭

And then there was one 34

已成过去

The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival
债券保险业挣扎求存

Nov 4th 2010
AMERICA’S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion. But “monoline” insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing. On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment. The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.
美国的市政债券市场市值约为2.8万亿。但为美国市县所发市政债券提供保险的单一险种保险公司只能苟延残喘。11月1日，当最大的债券保险公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息时，这个行业离灰飞烟灭又近了一点。该公司月底前可能申请破产。 It didn’t need an oracle to predict Ambac’s demise. Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac’s most toxic assets and put them into “rehabilitation”. Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities. One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion “net operating loss tax carry forward”, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit. Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: “Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.”

预测Ambac的破产并非难事。今年早些时候，一家州监管机构抽取Ambac的一些最为不良的资产，将它们投入“改造”。Ambac欠下超过16亿美元的债务，但只有7.6千万的现金和短期证券。该公司最遭人觊觎的资产之一是其70亿美元的“净营业损失免税金额”，如果该公司有机会盈利，该免税金额可转换成25亿美元的节税金额。CreditSights研究公司的罗布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）认为Ambac不会盈利：“Ambac时日无多了。”

The prospects for other monoline insurers look equally bleak. The industry got going in the 1970s and at first provided insurance only for municipal-bond issuers, which rarely defaulted. Over the past decade, however, the industry has branched out into structured products, such as risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralised-debt obligations. Big mistake. When subprime mortgages soured, bond insurers such as Ambac and MBIA, another embattled monoline, were on the hook to pay up. Their credit ratings dropped, which meant issuers were less willing to buy insurance from them.
其他单一险种保险公司的前景看来一样惨淡。这个行业始于20世纪70年代，起出只为很少违约的市政债券发行人提供保险。但过去十年，这个行业涉足结构化产品，如高风险的按揭贷款支持证券和抵押债务债券。大错特错。当次级房贷恶化时，Ambac和MBIA（另一家处境35

艰难的单一险种保险公司）等债券保险公司拖延偿还欠款。它们的信用等级下降，意味着发行人更不愿意向它们买保险。

In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so. Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede. All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business. Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back. “We’re like an only child,” says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty. “We don’t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.” Still, life isn’t all fun and games. Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.
2005年，债券保险公司覆盖了大约57%的新债券保险，但现在它们仅覆盖大约7%。只有一家单一险种保险公司仍有活力：对结构化浪潮浅尝辄止的Assured Guaranty。它在危机之前的所有同行要么正在重组，要么面临诉讼，要么破产。即使是2008年进入债券保险市场的沃伦?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出。“我们就像独生子，” Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）说，“我们没有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我们的。”然而，生活并非只有欢乐与游戏。评级机构标准普尔上月剥夺了该企业的AAA等级。

Some still believe there is hope for the industry. The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments. But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed. Stanislas Rouyer of Moody’s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities. This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.
一些人仍然认为这个行业还有希望。非营利组织全国城市联盟（National League of Cities）认为应有一家由地方政府拥有和运营的互助保险公司。但单一险种保险公司将不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家评级机构穆迪公司（Moody’s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?劳耶尔（Stanislas Rouyer）表示单一险种保险公司需要强调它们不仅提供保险，而且具备监控和监督的能力。这样做将使它们能够直接向占市政债券买家基数36%的散户销售产品。

There are other hurdles to jump first. The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what’s left of the industry to another huge test. Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers. But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.
还有其他障碍尚需先行跨越。一些市政府不稳固的财务状况可能使这个行业剩下的公司面临另一个巨大的考验。脆弱的发行人和紧张的投资者应该对保险公司有所裨益。但市县大量违约可能成为Assured Guaranty及其毫无活力的同行的致命一击。

Finance and Economics 财经
36


Oracle v SAP Oracle对阵SAP
Maintaining fees 捍卫维护费

A lawsuit against SAP is about more than illegal downloads 针对SAP的讼案不仅仅与非法下载有关

Nov 4th 2010
SOMETIMES a tackle says much about a match and even the entire season. This is the case with a trial that opened on November 1st, pitting the world’s two biggest makers of corporate software, Oracle and SAP, against each other. The dispute goes back to SAP’s purchase in 2005 of TomorrowNow, which provided maintenance services for some of Oracle’s software. Its aim was to poach customers. But in 2007 Oracle sued SAP, alleging that TomorrowNow had made illegal downloads from its website. 有时，一次阻截抢断就足以说明一场球赛甚或整个赛季。11月1日开庭、挑起全球最大两家企业软件商Oracle与SAP相互火拼的讼案，就属于这种情况。这场争论要追溯至2005年SAP收购TomorrowNow一事，后者为某些Oracle软件提供维护服务，意在挖走顾客。不过2007年Oracle起诉SAP，声称TomorrowNow从其网站非法下载。

SAP has since admitted that TomorrowNow had done wrong and closed it down. It will not even contest allegations that it was aware of the copyright infringement and has reportedly agreed to pay $120m in legal fees to Oracle. This essentially leaves only two questions open: the damages—SAP thinks $40m is enough; Oracle wants about $2 billion—and whether Léo Apotheker, SAP’s former boss and now head of Hewlett-Packard (HP, will appear in court. SAP自那时起就承认TomorrowNow行为失当，并关闭了该公司。而面对Oracle指控自个对版权侵害心知肚明一说，SAP甚至不会辩解。并且，据说其同意向Oracle支付1.2亿美元的诉讼费。这实质上只留下了两个问题悬而未决。一是Oracle的损失，SAP认为4000万美元足够了，而Oracle想要约20亿美元；二是Léo Apotheker这位SAP前老板、HP现领袖，是否会出庭。

As a result, it will be up to another trial to answer the underlying question: what are the rules for third-party maintenance? In January Oracle sued another maintenance firm, Rimini Street. It has since countersued, accusing Oracle of anticompetitive behaviour. 因此，SAP将面临另一场讯问，要回答如下问题：第三方维护的规则是什么？今年1月，Oracle起诉了另一家软件维护公司Rimini Street。该公司那时就提起反诉，指控Oracle的反竞争行为。

The issue is the same as with independent car-repair shops: what access to the 37

intellectual property of the original vendor should they have? If the court favours Rimini Street and others, their business could take off. A growing number of firms are thinking about defecting from Oracle and SAP, even though they would no longer get regular updates. They are happy with their existing applications and could cut their maintenance costs in half. 这个问题跟独立汽修店面临的问题是一样的：这些店铺应通过何种途径获得创始者的知识产权？若法庭站到Rimini Street及其他企业一边，这些企业就将蓬勃发展。越来越多企业正考虑背弃Oracle与SAP，即便不再获得定期升级。它们满意现有应用，可能会削减一半维护费。

If many customers jump ship, this would weigh heavily on the results of Oracle and SAP. Maintenance fees, usually 22% of a program’s price per year, have become a bigger part of firms’ technology budgets and of software vendors’ income. For both firms, maintenance generates twice as much revenue as software sales—and all of the profits. 若众多用户掉头离去，将会极大影响Oracle跟SAP的业绩。维护费通常占一个程序年费的22%，已成为企业科研预算及软件销售收入的大部分来源。对Oracle与SAP两家公司而言，维护费是软件销售收入的两倍，也是全部利润。

Yet if the TomorrowNow trial has attracted so much attention, it is also because of a new epic rivalry in the industry. It started when Oracle bought Sun Microsystems last year, becoming a direct rival to HP. Things got worse in September when Oracle hired HP’s ex-boss, Mark Hurd, who had been pushed out the previous month. The relationship became downright hostile when HP then appointed Mr Apotheker as successor and installed as chairman, of all people, Ray Lane, who left Oracle in 2000 after falling out with its flamboyant boss, Larry Ellison. 然而，倘若TomorrowNow一案吸引了如此多关注，也是因为该行业产生了新一轮重大对抗。这种对抗始于去年Oracle收购Sun Microsystems时，这场收购变成了一场直接针对HP的竞争。今年9月，情况变糟了，当时Oracle雇佣了HP前老板Mark Hurd，而他上个月刚被HP炒了鱿鱼。HP接着任命Apotheker先生充当继任者，安排Ray Lane担任董事长，而偏偏就是此人2000年与Oracle趾高气扬的老板Larry Ellison大吵一场后，离开了Oracle。因而此时，两家公司间的关系变得彻头彻尾充满敌意。

Mr Ellison, who has shown restraint in recent years, has since rediscovered his previous more belligerent form. He compared HP’s board to “idiots” when they forced Mr Hurd out. He spoke of “madness” after Mr Apotheker’s appointment. Later he accused HP’s new boss, who started his new job on the first day of the trial, of having “overseen an industrial-espionage scheme”. Ellison先生最近几年表现克制，但从那时起，他又找回了从前更好斗的模样。当HP董事会逼迫Hurd先生离开时，他将其比作“白痴”。在HP任命Apotheker先生后，他说这是“蠢事”。后来，他指责HP新老板（此案开庭首日他走马上任）正“监管一项工业间谍活动计划”。

All this has entertainment value. And it may impress Wall Street. But it is unlikely to make firms buy more of Oracle’s products. Nor will it do anything to counter the growing anger among customers of Oracle (and of SAP, for that matter over how much 38

they pay in maintenance fees, with so little in return. 这一切充满了娱乐价值，并会让华尔街印象深刻，却不大可能让企业购买更多的Oracle产品。而Oracle用户（就此事而言，SAP的用户同样）日益愤怒：他们付出了这么多维护费，回报却如此之少。要平息他们的怒气，这一切也毫无用处。 Transparency International 透明国际

Murk meter 阴暗量表

The best-known corruption index may have run its course 最著名的腐败指数或许已走到尽头。

Oct 28th 2010 | BERLIN
CORRUPTION takes many forms; in some countries it is blatant, in others it is barely visible. So the idea that it can quantified on a simple scale is appealing; it gives the impression that an elusive aspect of behaviour can be pinned down.
腐败形式五花八门：它在某些国家明目张胆地存在，而在其他国家则几乎深藏不露。因此，以一个简单的尺度对其加以量化的想法颇具吸引力。这给人留下一种印象：一种难以捉摸的行为也可被清晰界定。

No wonder, then, that the annual corruption perceptions index (CPI, which orders countries according to the perceived degree of graft, is closely watched. But when its compilers—Transparency International (TI, an organisation based in Berlin—released their 16th annual ranking on October 26th, there was criticism as well as curiosity.
于是，也难怪按被察觉到的贪腐程度对国家进行排序的年度腐败认知指数(CPI会受到密切关注了。不过当其编纂者（位于柏林的透明国际组织）在10月26日发布第16份年度排名时，既引发了好奇，也招至了批评。

To be sure, TI has done a lot for the anti-corruption cause. The group has had an “enormous impact”, says Richard Boucher, a deputy secretary-general at the OECD, a rich-country club. The CPI was the first index comparing corruption globally.
透明国际无疑已为反腐事业做出许多努力。富裕国家俱乐部——经合组织的副秘书长理查德?鲍彻(Richard Boucher称透明国际已拥有 “巨大的影响力”。腐败认知指数是第一个在全球层面上对腐败程度进行比较的指数。

But it has always been controversial. As might be expected, early complaints came from poor places which felt they were being singled out by an organisation that reflected the ethos of wealthy countries. 39


不过这一指数始终存有争议。正如你可能预料的那样，早期的抱怨来自于贫困地区，这些地区感到自己受到了一个反映富裕国家精神特质的组织的区别对待。

Now there are more subtle critiques, too. Some people take issue, for example, with the methodology based on 13 surveys of experts and business people. Its precise working varies from country to country, and it has changed over time—so that year-on-year comparisons can be misleading.
如今也出现了更为精巧的批评。例如，某些人士反对指数的计算方法，该方法以13项针对专家和商务人士的调查为基础。在不同国家，这种方法的准确运作会有差异，而且它也会随时间变化而变化，因此同比结果可能具有误导性。 The CPI highlights the general level of corruption, but offers little clue about which aspects are most serious, or how to fight it. Frustration has grown with the idea that “a single number for a whole country is enough”, says Nathaniel Heller of Global Integrity, an anti-corruption outfit.
腐败认知指数强调了腐败的整体水平，但却没有为哪些领域腐败最盛或应如何打击腐败提供多少信息。反腐败组织——环球廉正(Global Integrity的纳撒尼尔?海勒(Nathaniel Heller表示，对于那种认为“就整个国家而言，一个数据便足够了”的想法，人们已产生受挫感。 The CPI “has more than run its course”, in the view of Claudio Weber Abramo, director of Transparência Brasil, a former chapter that left the TI umbrella in 2007.
在透明巴西(Transparência Brasil主席克劳迪奥?韦伯?阿布拉莫(Claudio Weber Abramo看来，腐败认知指数“已经过时”。该组织曾是透明国际组织网中的一个分支，但已于2007年退出。

TI is aware of the index’s shortcomings. The CPI, it says, is “an annual snapshot” with “less of a focus on year-on-year trends”. Yet the group stands by its ranking. “We are comfortable we have an important tool—but it is only one tool”, says Huguette Labelle, TI’s chair.
透明国际明白指数所存有的缺陷。该组织指出，腐败认知指数是一种“较少聚焦于同比趋势”的“年度快照”。不过该组织仍支持自己的排序。透明国际主席胡吉特?拉贝勒(Huguette Labelle表示：“我们为自己拥有一种重要工具而感到安心——不过这只是一种工具”。

TI is far from a one-trick pony. It now focuses on boosting international accords and helping enforce them. At the local level, it also does much more than in the past. In some developing countries, legal advice centres help victims of corruption. Still, the CPI looms large, and the organisation faces a dilemma. The index gets a much-needed attention, but it overshadows other activities and exposes it to criticism. If TI had the courage to ditch its score-card, or at least publish it in a less misleading 40

form, its other work might fare better.
透明国际远非黔驴技穷之辈。目前，该组织正在关注推动国际协议并助其实施。而在地区层面上，该组织的所作所为也比以往多上许多。在一些发展中国家，法律咨询中心向腐败受害者伸出援手。不过，腐败认知指数影响巨大，透明国际正面临着两难局面。这一指数既赢得了其所急需的关注，却又盖住了其他活动的风头，并将自己推至风口浪尖。如果透明国际有勇气抛弃这块记分牌，或者至少是以一种误导性较小的方式加以发布的话，该组织其他工作的进展或许就将更加顺利。

Broadband in America 美国宽带业

Come sooner, future 快来吧，未来

Verizon has paid dearly to build a fast network. Now it needs customers Verizon公司付出了高昂代价建设高速网络。现在，它亟需用户

Oct 28th 2010
VERIZON can get shirty about the word “fibre”. America’s second-biggest telecoms operator successfully complained to the Better Business Bureau that competitors had touted “fibre-optic fast” to consumers, even though their broadband networks did not run fibre all the way to the home, as Verizon does. This is not just a techies’ argument. By an order of magnitude, an all-fibre network is the fastest way to move information from one place to another on the internet and Verizon has the largest such network in America. The difficult bit is making money from it. Verizon可能生“纤”字的气。因为这家美国第二大电信运营商向商业促进局申诉成功，称其竞争者的宽带网即便并未如自己那般从头至尾光纤延伸入户，却纷纷向消费者兜售“光纤高速”。这并非只是愤愤之辞。就数量级而言，全光网是互联网信息异地迁移速度最快的方式，而Verizon拥有美国最大的全光网。难点在于用它赚钱。

The company is betting that highbandwidth web services will create a huge demand for fast networks—and profits. But that is in the future. In Japan and South Korea, two other countries with fast networks, the government has subsidised the laying of new fibre. In America, which has relied on private investment, Verizon is having to shoulder more of the risk. 该公司正打赌，高带宽网络业务将创造对高速网络的巨大需求，并产生巨额利润。不过，这尚未到来。拥有高速网络的日韩两国，政府补贴新光纤铺设。而在依赖私人投资的美国，Verizon不得不承受更多风险。

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The reason why the company was so keen to build a fast network goes back to how America was wired originally. In the beginning there was copper wire, which telephone companies ran to almost every house. Then, in the 1980s, cable-television companies secured local monopolies to provide coaxial cable as well. 该公司热衷高速网络建设的原因，要追溯至美国当初如何布线。起初是铜线，电话公司铺至几乎每家每户。接着，在上世纪八十年代，有线电视公司获得了本地垄断权，也布设了同轴电缆。

At first the two networks had a fair fight, delivering the internet at about the same speed. No network, however, can run faster than the speed of its “last mile”, from the neighbourhood node to the house. This is the most expensive place to lay networks and the last mile of cable is faster than a copper wire. So the telephone companies would, eventually, be unable to deliver the internet as fast as their cable competitors. 最初，这两种网络公平竞争，互联网传输速度大致相同。然而，没有网络能快过其“最后一英里”（即从小区节点至用户家里那段）的速度。这是网络布设造价最贵之处，而电缆最后一英里比铜线快。因此电话公司也许最终，其互联网传输速度不能像有线竞争者那样快。

Verizon, formed in 2000 out of several regional telephone companies, decided to create a third network. Since 2004 it has strung optic fibre to 60% of the homes where it already had copper wires, mainly in Texas, California and on the East Coast. Verizon calls its new network “FiOS”. It cost about $23 billion to build and, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment firm, contributed to the $32 billion debt of Verizon’s wireline division. 2000年成立、由几家区域电话公司组成的Verizon，决定创建第三种网络。2004年来，光纤拉进了60%已铺有铜线的家庭（主要在德克萨斯、加利福尼亚及东海岸地区）。Verizon称其新网络为“FiOS”。其建设费约230亿美元，而据投资公司Sanford Bernstein的数据，这导致Verizon有线部门负债320亿美元。

To counter FiOS, the cable companies have run fibre to the neighbourhood node, from where the connection continues to the home through their existing cable. This technology now reaches more than 70% of homes (see chart and, unlike Verizon, the cable companies did not have to pay to replace the last mile. 为抗衡FiOS，有线公司已将光纤延伸至小区节点，从这儿继续用其现有电缆连接至用户家里。该技术现抵达了超过70%的家庭（如图所示），且与Verizon不同，有线公司无须掏钱更换最后一英里网络。

Basic copper and cable internet access cannot run faster than about 5 megabits per second, which is just about fast enough to watch something on YouTube or for a video chat over Skype. But networks seldom run as fast as advertised. The cable networks upgraded with fibre can run at speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second, enough to handle most present-day applications and many in the immediate future, like 42

high-definition video. Yet Verizon’s network could leave these in the dust. In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster. 基本的铜线及电缆互联网接入速度不超过5Mbits/s，仅够看YouTube或Skype视频聊天。不过，网速鲜有宣传得那样快。光纤升级后的有线网络，网速达几百兆每秒，足以应付现在的大部分应用，而在不远的将来出现的许多应用，如高清视频，处理起来也绰绰有余。然而，Verizon的网络将令上述网络望尘莫及，在马萨诸塞州进行的试验中，其光纤网速高达10Gbits/s,还能更快。

This puts Verizon in a tricky position. Its old copper network, still 40% of its customer base, is not fast enough but FiOS is faster than most consumers need. So the company is having to weather the transition to a time when faster networks become more important. On October 22nd Verizon said that its overall revenue, at $26.5 billion in the third quarter, was 2.9% down on the same period a year ago. Its mobile-phone division performed strongly, with revenue rising by 6%, to $16.3 billion. But its wireline business remained under pressure: revenue fell by 3.6% in the period and operating profit slumped by 90%. 这令Verizon处境棘手。仍有40%客户基础的旧有铜线网速不够快，但FiOS却快得超过了大部分用户所需。因此该公司现在不得不挨过这一过渡期，直到高速网络日渐重要的那一天。10月22日，Verizon称今年第三季度总收入达265亿美元，较去年同期下降2.9%。其移动电话部门表现强劲，收入增加了6%，达163亿美元。但其有线业务仍面临压力：这一时期收入下跌3.6%，营业利润大幅下滑90%。

For now, Verizon has halted new investment in fibre while it tries to drum up more customers for FiOS. And for the long term it is trying to create demand for an even faster internet. Verizon has suggested that it be allowed to offer companies super-fast, premium access to its network while continuing to provide what it calls “the open internet” to its customers. Verizon sees its fast network supplying programmes to 100-inch television screens and providing 3-D online gaming. More speed-demanding video games are coming (see article. The company has also been discussing linking medical devices in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries. It is building connections to intelligent power grids, which businesses and homes could use to reduce their energy bills. For Verizon, the future cannot come fast enough. 目前，Verizon暂停往光纤上再投资，同时设法力争更多FiOS顾客。而长期以来，它一直试图创造同样的高速互联网需求。Verizon表明，它应获准向企业提供高速、优惠的网络接入，同时继续向用户提供其所称的“开放式互联网”。Verizon考虑让其高速网络提供100英寸电视屏幕节目及3D网络游戏。更多苛求速度的视频游戏正在涌现。该公司也一直在谈论用高速网络连接医院医疗设备及医生手术室。它正构建智能电网连接，企业及家庭用户可用其削减能源开销。对Verizon而言，未来来得还不够快。 Born digital 数码人生

National libraries start to preserve the web, but cannot save everything 各国的图书馆开始保存网站，但不能面面俱到
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Oct 21st 2010
The library of the future IN THE digital realm, things seem always to happen the wrong way round. Whereas Google has hurried to scan books into its digital catalogue, a group of national libraries has begun saving what the online giant leaves behind. For although search engines such as Google index the web, they do not archive it. Many websites just disappear when their owner runs out of money or interest. Adam Farquhar, in charge of digital projects for the British Library, points out that the world has in some ways a better record of the beginning of the 20th century than of the beginning of the 21st. 在数码界，出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜。当谷歌忙于将书籍扫描成数字文档时，各国图书馆已经开始保存这个在线巨人漏掉的资料。尽管谷歌这类搜索引擎提供网站的索引服务，但并没有把网站保存起来。很多网站因其所有人缺乏资金或失去兴趣而昙花一现。Adam Farquhar负责大英博物馆的数字项目，他指出在某种程度上全世界对20世纪初期的记录比21世纪初期的记录要好。

In 1996 Brewster Kahle, a computer scientist and internet entrepreneur, founded the Internet Archive, a non-profit organisation dedicated to preserving websites. He also began gently harassing national libraries to worry about preserving the web. They started to pay attention when several elections produced interesting material that never touched paper. 在1996年，一个名为Brewster Kahle的计算机科学家和因特网企业家，成立了英特网档案室，这是一个非营利性的组织，致力于网站的保存。他也开始委婉地敦促各国的图书馆关注保存网站的问题。几轮选举中出现很多有意义材料，但从未以书面形式保留下来时，此时，各国图书馆开始关注这一问题。

In 2003 eleven national libraries and the Internet Archive launched a project to preserve “born-digital” information: the kind that has never existed as anything but digitally. Called the International Internet Preservation Consortium (IIPC, it now includes 39 large institutional libraries. But the task is impossible. One reason is the sheer amount of data on the web. The groups have already collected several petabytes of data (a petabyte can hold roughly 10 trillion copies of this article. 2003年，11家各国图书馆和因特网档案室启动一个保护数码信息的项目：此类信息没有以数码之外的任何其他形式存在过。这个称为“国际因特网保护联合体”的项目，现有39家大型机构图书馆。但是这一任务几乎无法完成。理由之一是网络上的数据量极其庞大。这些团体已经收集了几拍（petabytes）的数据（一拍大约能装下10万亿篇本文）。

Another issue is ensuring that the data is stored in a format that makes it available in centuries to come. Ancient manuscripts are still readable. But much digital media from the past is readable only on a handful of fragile and antique machines, if at all. The IIPC has set a single format, making it more likely that future historians will be able to find a machine to read the data. But a single solution cannot capture all content. Web publishers increasingly serve up content-rich pages based on complex 44

data sets. Audio and video programmes based on proprietary formats such as Windows Media Player are another challenge. What happens if Microsoft is bankrupt and forgotten in 2210? 另一个问题是如何确保现在储存数据的格式，在几个世纪之后依然存在。古代的一些书稿人们到今天还能读。但是很多过去的数字媒体，即使勉强能读，也仅限于为数不多的几台老掉牙的机器。国际因特网保护联合体已经单独创立一种格式，让未来的历史学家更有可能找到读取这些数据的机器。但一种解决方案不能抓取所有内容。网站发布工具越来越多地按照数据的复杂程度提供内容丰富的网页。以各类专有格式（如windows media player储存的音频和视频内容也是个大问题。万一2210年微软破产或无人知晓怎么办？

The biggest problem, for now, is money. The British Library estimates that it costs half as much to store a digital document as it does a physical one. But there are a lot more digital ones. America’s Library of Congress enjoys a specific mandate, and budget, to save the web. The British Library is still seeking one. 现在面临的最大问题是钱。大英博物馆估计储存数字文件的花费是储存物理文件的一半。但是数字内容要多很多。美国国会图书馆很幸运，因为国家有具体的保护网站的命令和预算。大英博物馆还在争取这种命令。

So national libraries have decided to split the task. Each has taken responsibility for the digital works in its national top-level domain (web-address suffixes such as “.uk” or “.fr”. In countries with larger domains, such as Britain and America, curators cannot hope to save everything. They are concentrating on material of national interest, such as elections, news sites and citizen journalism or innovative uses of the web. 因此，各国的图书馆决定共同完成这个任务。它们分别承担其顶级域名内的数字作品（如后缀为“.uk”或“.fr”的网址）。如果某些国家域名庞大，如英国和美国，馆长们不要指望把什么都保存下来。他们需要重点处理关系国计民生的材料，如选举、新闻网站和公民的报章杂志或创意使用网站的方法。

The daily death of countless websites has brought a new sense of urgency—and forced libraries to adapt culturally as well. Past practice was to tag every new document as it arrived. Now precision must be sacrificed to scale and speed. The task started before standards, goals or budgets are set. And they may yet change. Just like many websites, libraries will be stuck in what is known as “permanent beta”. 每天，都有无数网站消失，更让人感到时间紧迫——图书馆也不得不根据社会文化需要，灵活处理。过去习惯做法是凡是新文件，一一标注保存。现在则必须牺牲准确性换取规模和速度。标准、目标或预算都没确定，就开始工作了。而标准、任务、预算还可能变更。同很多网站一样，图书馆也将陷入所谓“永久试用”的境地。

译者注： 本文不长，语言相对简单，但要译出“韵味”，还是不容易。我觉得有几点需要大家尤其注意： 1. 大意的把握。两方面内容，保存什么？保存的是网站内容，不是某个网页。谁来45

保存？各国的图书馆，这不是一个国家的图书馆能做得了的工作。这两点弄不好，文中web、national libraries就不好翻。
某些具体语句的把握。除了要翻出意思，还要翻出感情色彩。就拿开头一句“things seem always to happen the wrong way round”来说，有人翻成“倒行逆施”，这就说明译者没有理解中文的倒行逆施有“贬义”，用来形容某个不得人心、逆历史潮流而动的做法等，感情色彩很浓厚。而本文则没有这种强烈的情绪，因此，我认为“出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜”、“事情的发展总是让人摸不透”等比较贴切，看似“不准确”，其实意思出来了。

Virtual outsourcing 虚拟外包业

Mobile work 移动工作

A way to earn money by texting 发短信赚钱之法

Oct 28th 2010 | new york
Mobile worker 移动工作者

THE idea came to Nathan Eagle, a research scientist with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, when he was doing a teaching stint in rural Kenya. He realised that, as three-quarters of the 4.6 billion mobile-phone users worldwide live in developing countries, a useful piece of technology is now being placed in the hands of a large number of people who might be keen to use their devices to make some money. To help them do so, he came up with a service called txteagle which distributes small jobs via text messaging in return for small payments. 麻省理工学院研究员Nathan Eagle在肯尼亚乡下进行短期教学时，冒出了这一念头。他意识到，全世界46亿手机用户有四分之三生活在发展中国家，因而一项实用技术，此刻正掌握在大量或许渴望用自己手机赚钱的人手中。为帮助他们那样做，Eagle先生想出了一种叫做txteagle的业务，可以靠发文字短信分发零活来换取小额报酬。

Only 18% of people in the developing world have access to the internet, but more than 50% owned a mobile-phone handset at the end of 2009 (a number which has more than doubled since 2005, according to the International Telecommunication Union. One study shows that adding ten mobile phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts growth in GDP per person by 0.8 percentage points. 根据国际电信联盟的数据，2009年底，发展中国家仅有18%的人接入了互联网，却有超过一半的人拥有手机（这一数据自2005年以来增加了一倍以上）。一项研究表明，在一个典型的发展中国家，每百人增加十部手机，会使人均GDP提升0.8个百分点。
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Mr Eagle hopes txteagle will do its bit by mobile “crowdsourcing”—breaking down jobs into small tasks and sending them to lots of individuals. These jobs often involve local knowledge and range from things like checking what street signs say in rural Sudan for a satellite-navigation service to translating words into a Kenyan dialect for companies trying to spread their marketing. A woman living in rural Brazil or India may have limited access to work, adds Mr Eagle, “but she can still use her mobile phone to collect local price and product data or even complete market-research surveys.” Payments are transferred to a user’s phone by a mobile money service, such as the M-PESA system run by Safaricom in Africa, or by providing additional calling credit. Eagle先生希望txteagle业务通过移动“众包”（将工作拆分成零星任务后派发给众多个体）有所贡献。这些工作通常牵涉本地知识，涵盖各种事情，如为一种卫星导航业务核对种种路标在苏丹乡下表明什么，为那些试图扩展市场的公司将文字翻译为肯尼亚土语。一位住在巴西或印度乡下的妇女，或许工作机会有限，Eagle先生补充道，“但她仍能用自己的手机搜集当地价格及产品数据，甚或完成市场调研。”报酬通过一种手机钱包业务（比如非洲Safaricom移动通信公司运营的M-PESA移动转账系统）转到用户手机上，或者打入额外的手机预付费。
Working with over 220 mobile operators, txteagle is able to reach 2 billion subscribers in 80 countries. It already has the largest contract-labour force in Kenya and new ways of using it are being found all the time. Recently a large media firm asked Mr Eagle for help in monitoring its television commercials across Africa. The company was concerned that, although it had paid for broadcasting rights, its ads could be replaced with others by local television companies. So txteagle pays locals to watch and then text notes about which ads are shown. “I would never think of that myself,” says Mr Eagle. Which is why he is not sure just how big all these small text jobs could become. txteagle业务与220多个移动运营商合作，能到达80个国家的20亿订户。在肯尼亚已拥有了最大的包工力量，新的使用方式一直层出不穷。最近一家媒体巨头向Eagle先生求助，监视其在非洲全境的电视商业广告。该公司担心，尽管其已为播映权掏了钱，但自个的广告却可能被当地电视公司的广告替换。于是txteagle业务付钱给当地人观察哪些广告播出了，然后用文字标注。Eagle说，“我自己决不会想到这个法子。”他不确定所有这些零星的文字工作究竟会变成多大的力量，而这就是原因。The Big Mac index 巨无霸指数 An indigestible problem 难题
Why China needs more expensive burgers 为什么说中国的巨无霸太便宜了 Oct 14th 2010 | Hong kong
A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch. But it can provide a cheap one. In China, for example, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates. In America, in contrast, the same burger averages $3.71. 出口商和政客所吁求的弱势货币绝非免费的午餐。不过它确实可以使午餐变得很便宜。比如说，在中国的北京和深圳，一个麦当劳巨无霸汉堡平均只需14.5元人民币即可买到，按市场汇率计算，相当于2.18美元。而在美国，相同的汉堡要卖到3.71美元。
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That makes China’s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, our gratifyingly simple guide to currency misalignments, updated this week (see chart. The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currency’s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy. Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market. In fact, it costs just $0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about 40%. 这使得人民币成为本周巨无霸指数——本刊的实用单一货币失调指标——中最被低估的货币（见图）。巨无霸指数的基础是购买力平价，即一种货币的价格应该反映它所能买到的商品和服务。14.5元人民币可以买到3.71美元的汉堡，因此1元人民币应该在外汇市场中价值0.26美元。而事实上1元人民币只能兑换0.15美元，这意味着人民币被低估了40%。 The tensions caused by such misalignments prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a “currency war”. Perhaps it was something he ate. In Brazil a Big Mac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying that the real is now overvalued by 42%. The index also suggests that the euro is overvalued by about 29%. And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one. Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list. The Japanese are so far the only rich country to intervene directly in the markets to weaken their currency. But according to burgernomics, the yen is only 5% overvalued, not much of a casus belli. 在货币失调所造成的国际紧张局面面前，巴西财政部长曼特加（Guido Mantega）上个月发出了巴西是“货币战争”潜在受害者的感叹。或许他是在抱怨自己吃的东西太贵了。在巴西，一个巨无霸汉堡的价格相当于5.26美元，表明雷亚尔被高估了42%。巨无霸指数还显示欧元被高估了29%。而传统的中立国瑞士这次站在了货币战争最前线。瑞士法郎已成为指数中最昂贵的货币。日本是目前唯一直接干预货币市场使本国货币贬值的发达国家。但从我们的汉堡经济学视角来看，日元只被高估了5%，显然不能作为发动货币战的借口。 If a currency war is in the offing, America’s congressmen seem increasingly determined to arm themselves. A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs. The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation. 货币战争是否一触即发姑且不论，美国的国会议员们似乎是铁了心要开始武装戒备了。上个月，众议院通过了一项法令，将被低估的货币视同非法出口补贴，美国公司有权要求征收抵消性关税。具体的税率体现了被低估的程度。

How does the bill propose to calculate this misalignment? It relies not on Big Macs, but on the less digestible methods favoured by the IMF. The fund uses three related approaches. First, it calculates the real exchange rate that would steadily bring a country’s current-account balance (equivalent to the trade balance plus a few other 48

things into line with a “norm” based on the country’s growth, income per person, demography and budget balance. 这一法令通过什么方法计算货币失调程度呢？不是巨无霸指数，而是IMF所惯用的深奥算法。IMF使用三种相互关联的手段来计算汇率。一是根据使一国经常项目收支（相当于贸易收支在加上少数其他项目）与“标准”（由该国增长率、人均收入、人口和财政收支等因素决定）相匹配的原则来计算真实汇率。

The fund’s second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a direct statistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a country’s terms of trade (the price of its exports compared with its imports, its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities. The strength of Brazil’s currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such as soyabeans. 第二种算法忽略经常项目收支，而是计算一国真实汇率与该国进出口比价（出口品价格与进口品价格之比）、生产力、对外资产负债情况等因素的直接统计关系。比如，巴西里亚尔的强势一定程度上是拜其出口品（如大豆）价格较高所赐。

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the country’s foreign assets and liabilities at a reasonable level. If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses, resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate. 三是计算使一国对外资产和负债稳定在合理水平的汇率。比如，如果某国有着巨大的贸易盈余，因而对外资产迅速囤积，那么该国货币就有可能是被低估的。

The IMF has typically assessed its members’ policies one at a time. But the fund’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to make sure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes. He is keen to identify the ways in which a country’s policies, including its exchange-rate policies, “spill over” to its neighbours. 在通常情况下，IMF会逐一评估各成员国的政策。但总干事多米尼克?斯特劳斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）最近建议同时评估所有最重要成员国，以确保它们的宏观经济策略目标不会相互冲突。卡恩急切地想弄明白一国的政策——包括汇率政策在内——是如何“溢出”从而影响到邻国的。

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments. But the biggest economies are also the hardest to bully. The fund’s last annual report on the Chinese economy, in July, included the government’s rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered. In a decorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was “substantially” undervalued but refrained from quantifying the size of the problem. 溢出效应既取决于失调的严重程度，也取决于经济规模的大小。但大经济体通常也是强硬派。在IMF最新一期的中国经济年报（7月发布）中，中国政府逐条反驳了IMF提出的所有批评。IMF只能作出适当让步，仅仅称人民币被“显著”低估了，而没有给出到底低估多少的具体数字。

49

Big revaluations of the kind required to satisfy the fund or equalise the price of burgers are unlikely. A recent study of the Big Mac index by Kenneth Clements, Yihui Lan and Shi Pei Seah of the University of Western Australia showed that misalignments are remarkably persistent. As a result, the raw index did a poor job of predicting exchange rates: undervalued currencies remain too cheap and overvalued currencies remain too pricey. 要被低估的货币一下子升值到符合IMF的标准或者使巨无霸汉堡价格一致的水平是不可能的。西澳大利亚大学的肯尼斯?克莱门茨（Kenneth Clements）、Yihui Lan和Shi Pei Seah对巨无霸指数的最新研究表明，失调具有明显的持久性。因此，原始指数无法很好地预测汇率走势：被低估的货币通常会持续低估，而被高估的货币则持续高估。

But since this bias is systematic, it can be identified and removed. Once that is done, the three economists show that a reconstituted index is good at predicting real exchange rates over horizons of a year or more. Since The Economist costs just $6.99 (a little less than two burgers on the news-stand, the index provides decent value for money for would-be currency speculators, the authors conclude. The Big Mac index may itself be undervalued. 但这一偏差是系统性的，因此可以被识别和移除。只要修正这一偏差，三位经济学家显示，改进的巨无霸指数就可以很好地在年及年以上时间单位上预测汇率走势。鉴于本刊报摊零售价不过6.99美元（还不到两个汉堡的价钱），笔者认为我们的指数对欲从事货币投机者来说绝对物超所值。也许巨无霸指数本身也被低估了。Microsoft's mobile operating system 微软的移动操作系统

Windows or curtains（注1） 良机还是死路？

The software giant is desperate to make a splash in the smart-phone business 软件巨头孤注一掷，想要在智能电话行业大展拳脚

Oct 7th 2010 | San Francisco
AT A company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s pugnacious boss, spied an employee taking a photo on an Apple iPhone. He promptly grabbed the offending device and pretended to stamp on it. Microsoft would love to crush competitors in the smart-phone market, but it has repeatedly failed to come up with compelling offerings of its own. Now the software firm is gearing up for another assault on a business that is crucial to its future. 去年，在一次公司会议上，斗志旺盛的微软老板斯蒂夫?鲍尔默，发现一名雇员正在用苹果的iPhone拍照。他一把夺过这台令其不快的设备，作势猛踩。微软巴不得击垮智能电话市场上的对手，却一而再再而三地、未能整出强有力的产品。现在，这家软件公司正憋足了劲，要在智能手机行业发起又一轮出击，该行业对其未来至关紧要。
On October 11th Microsoft is due to unveil phones from manufacturers such as HTC and 50

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