How China runs the world economy

中国如何引领世界经济
Jul 28th 2005
From The Economist print edition

Global wages, profits, prices and interest rates are increasingly being influenced by events in China

1 “IF YOU want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of Chinese proverb crudely sums up how the entry of China's massive labour force into the global economy may prove to be the most profound change for 50, and perhaps even for 100, years.
“一年之计，莫如树谷；十年之计，莫如树木；终身之计，莫如树人。”

中国这句老话可以直白地概括说明为什么庞大的中国劳动力大军进入全球经济如何会是50年、甚或100年间最为深刻的变化。

2 China, along with the other emerging giants, India, Brazil and the former Soviet Union, has effectively doubled the global labour force, hugely boosting the world's potential output and hence its future prosperity. China's growth rate is not exceptional compared with previous or current emerging economies in Asia, but China is having a more dramatic effect on the world economy because of two factors: not only does it have a huge, cheap workforce, but its economy is also unusually open to trade. As a result, China's development is not just a powerful driver of global growth; its impact on other economies is also far more pervasive
中国连同其他正在崛起的大国印度、巴西和前苏联国家使全球劳动力翻了一番，大大提高了世界的潜在产出，因而未来的繁荣前景更加光明。

较之以前或目前的亚洲新兴经济体，中国的经济增长率没有什么了不起，但是中国对世界经济的影响较大，这是由于两个方面的原因：拥有廉价的劳动力大军；中国经济是开放型经济，而且贸易开放程度异乎寻常。因此，中国的发展不仅仅是全球经济增长的强大驱动力，而且对其他经济体的影响也广泛得多。

3 Beijing's new influence was clear from the shockwaves in global currency, bond and commodity markets last week after it announced that the yuan will no longer be pegged to the dollar. Until a couple of years ago nobody cared much that the Chinese yuan was pegged to the dollar. Recently, though, this link has become one of the hottest issues in international politics, widely blamed in America for its huge trade deficit.

北京上周宣布人民币不再盯住美元，此事给全球货币、债券和商品市场带来冲击波，北京具有的影响力由此可见一斑。就在几年前，谁都不太在乎人民币是否盯住美元。然而，由于巨额贸易逆差受到了美国广泛指责，这种联系最近也成了国际政治的一个热门话题，

4 Last week's 2.1% revaluation of the yuan is trivial and unlikely to dent America's trade deficit.More important is the breaking of the yuan's formal link to the dollar and the shift to a so-called “managed float” against a basket of currencies. In theory, this allows considerable scope for a further rise in the yuan against the dollar, though it is unclear by how much the Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to climb.
上周人民币升值2.1%，这种很小的幅度无法填补美国巨额贸易赤字留下的大坑。人民币正式宣布与美元脱钩，转而实行所谓的一篮子浮动利率管理机制，，这是更为显著的变化。尽管目前还不大清楚中国政府允许人民币升值的程度有多大，理论上讲这种变化使人民币对美元的升值空间更大。

5 Even if last week's adjustment was timid, it could mark an important turning point. It is certainly a step in the right direction for China itself, as greater currency flexibility will give it more room to use monetary policy to steer the economy. More interesting are the implications for the world economy. This might be the beginning of the end of what has been dubbed a revived Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates between China (and other Asian economies) and America.
尽管上周中国调整人民币步伐很小，但却具有转折性意义，无疑是向着正确方向迈出一步，巨额的货币流通能力使得中国可以运用货币政策掌控经济的空间更大了。更为有趣的是对世界经济产生了深刻影响。它标志着中美实行固定汇率、一个翻版的刚刚复活的布雷顿森林体系的终结。
The dragon's breath

6 Under this arrangement, China has provided cheap finance to America's consumers and its government by buying Treasury bonds. If the switch to a currency basket causes China to reduce its new purchases of dollar assets, then American bond yields could rise. America's China bashers, who demand a further revaluation of 25% or more, should therefore be careful. Such a large-scale revaluation would surely push bond yields higher and badly hurt America's economy. Indeed, if the yuan's adjustment has any real impact on America's trade deficit, it will not be through the revaluation itself, but because higher bond yields squeeze domestic demand.

通过购买国库券（国债），中国向美国消费者和政府提供着廉价资金。如果人民币转而盯住一篮子货币导致中国减持美元资产，那么美国的债券收益率可能就会上升。美国的中国抨击者们要求人民币再上调25%或者更多，他们这下应该小心了。这种大幅重新定值一定会将债券收益率推向一个更高的水平，从而严重损害美国经济。其实，如果说调整人民币币值会对美国的贸易逆差产生什么实际影响，那不会是通过重新定值本身，而是因为债券收益率升高压缩了国内需求。美国的贸易逆差主要是开支过度和储蓄不足引起的，并非源自中国的竞争。

7 America's trade deficit is due mainly to excessive spending and inadequate saving, not to unfair Chinese competition. If China has contributed to America's deficit it is not through its undervalued exchange rate, but by holding down bond yields and so fuelling excessive household borrowing and spending. From this point of view, global monetary policy is now made in Beijing, not Washington.

如果说美国贸易逆差的责任中国也有份儿，那不是通过压低汇率，而是通过降低债券收益率从而刺激家庭过度借贷和开支。从这个角度看，现在制定全球货币政策的是北京，而不是华盛顿。

Puzzle key

8 The popular focus on the yuan, America's trade deficit and jobs as China's main impact on the rest of the world misses the point. China's growing influence stretches much deeper than its exports of cheap goods: it is revolutionising the relative prices of labour, capital, goods and assets in a way that has never happened so quickly before. A recognition of China's profound and widespread impact on the world economy explains various current economic puzzles.
诸多难题答案都是中国人们一心关注人民币、美国贸易赤字和就业岗位问题，认为这些就是中国对世界其他地区产生的主要影响。这种看法没有抓住问题的实质。中国的影响力不断增强，所及范围远远超过出口廉价商品：中国正在使劳动力、资本、商品和资产的相对价格发生根本变化，其速度之快以前从未有过。如果你能认识到中国对世界经济的影响之深、影响之广，就能找到当前各种经济难题的答案。

9 Take, for instance, the oil price. Since the beginning of last year, oil prices have doubled, yet in contrast to previous oil shocks, inflation rates remain low and global growth robust. The answer to this riddle is China. To the extent that oil prices are driven up by strong Chinese demand rather than, as in the past, an interruption of supply, they are less likely to hurt global growth. And the impact of higher oil prices on inflation has been offset by falling prices of all sorts of goods from cameras and computers to microwaves and bicycles—thanks to China. In addition, competition from China and the threat that firms in developed countries might shift offshore also helps to keep a lid on wages and hence inflation.
举个油价的例子。自去年初以来，油价已经翻了一番，然而较之以前油价带来的冲击，通货膨胀率仍然很低，全球经济增长势头强劲。个中谜底就是中国。油价高涨是由于中国需求强劲，而不是像过去那样源于供应中断，就此而言全球经济增长不大可能受到损害。多亏了中国，从照相机、电脑到微波炉和自行车等各种商品价格下降，进而抵消了高油价对通货膨胀的影响。此外，来自中国的竞争以及发达国家的公司有可能迁往国外也有助于抑制工资上涨从而控制通货膨胀。

10 Another oddity is that, while the prices of most goods are falling, house prices are soaring in many countries. Again, enter the dragon. Cheaper goods from China have made it easier for central banks to achieve their inflation goals without needing to push real interest rates sharply higher. This has encouraged a borrowing binge. The resulting excess liquidity has flowed into the prices of assets, such as homes, rather than into traditional inflation. And, last but not least, there is the conundrum which has puzzled Alan Greenspan, head of America's central bank: why are American bond yields so low despite robust growth and hefty government borrowing? Part of the answer lies, once again, with China, which has bought large quantities of Treasury bonds to hold down its currency.
还有一个奇怪的现象：在许多国家，大多数商品的价格下降了，但是房价却在猛涨。这又是中国龙在发挥威力。由于中国提供着比较利率。这就助长了借贷热。由此带来的超额流动性流入了房地产等资产的价格，而没有流入传统的通货膨胀。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，有一个谜令美国的中央银行负责人格林斯潘百思不得其解：经济增长势头强劲，而且政府大举借债，可是为何美国的债券收益率却如此之低？部分答案还是与中国有关，因为中国购买了大量美国国库券。

11 Over the coming years, developed countries' inflation and interest rates, wages, profits, oil and even house prices could increasingly be “made in China”. How should the world's policymakers respond to China's growing economic clout? Trying to halt China's growth through protectionist measures, as many American congressmen would like to do, would be a disaster, for it would close off a powerful source of future global prosperity.

延续繁荣应当欢迎中国今后若干年，发达国家的通货膨胀、利率、工资、利润、石油甚至房价有可能越来越多的是“中国制造”。中国的经济影响力与日俱增，世界的决策者应该如何应对？试图通过采取保护主义措施中止中国的经济增长――正如美国的许多国会议员希望的那样――将是一场灾难，因为那会关闭未来全球繁荣的一个强大源泉。

12 A better way to deal with China's growing power would be to give the country a bigger stake in global economic stability. China should be a full member of international economic policy forums, such as the G7 and the OECD. Western policymakers would be wise to remember another Chinese proverb: “What you cannot avoid, welcome.”

要应对中国日益增强的实力，一个比较好的办法是：让这个国家在全球经济稳定中发挥更大作用。中国应该成为七国集团和经合组织等国际经济政策论坛的正式成员。prosperity, grow trees. If you want 100 years of prosperity, grow people.” This old

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