考研时文阅读（12

Text 11 Why texting harms your IQ

为什么收发短信会降低智商？

The regular use of text messages and e-mails can lower the IQ more than twice as much as smoking marijuana. That is the claim of psychologists who have found that tapping away on a mobile phone or computer keypad or checking them for electronic messages temporarily knocks up to ten points off the user's IQ. This rate of decline in intelligence compares unfavorably with the four-point drop in IQ associated with smoking marijuana, according to British researchers, who have labeled the fleeting phenomenon of enhanced stupidity as infomania.

Research on sleep deprivation suggests that the IQ drop caused by electronic obsession is also equivalent to a wakeful night. Infomania is mainly a problem for adult workers, especially men, as the study commissioned by Hewlett Packard, the technology company, has concluded.

The noticeable drop in IQ is attributed to the constant distraction of always on technology when employees should be concentrating on what they are paid to do. Infomania means that they lose concentration as their minds remain fixed in an almost permanent state of readiness to react to technology instead of focusing on the task in hand. Workers lose productivity by interrupting a business meeting and disrupt social gatherings because of their infirmity, the report said.

The brain also finds it hard to cope with juggling lots of tasks at once, reducing its overall effectiveness, it added. And while modern technology can have huge benefits, excessive use can be damaging not only to a person's mind, but to their social life.

Furthermore, infomania is having a negative effect on work colleagues, increasing stress and dissenting feelings. Nine out of ten polled thought that colleagues who answered e-mails or messages during a face-to-face meeting were extremely rude. Yet one in three Britons believes that it is not only acceptable, but actually diligent and efficient to do so.

The effects on IQ were studied by Dr Glenn Wilson, a University of London psychologist, as part of the research project. This is a very real and widespread phenomenon, he said. We have found that infomania, if unchecked, will damage a worker's performance by reducing their mental sharpness. Companies should encourage a more balanced and appropriate way of working.

经常收发短信和e-mail会降低人的智商。这种损害比吸食大麻对智商带来的损害要高两倍多。心理学家发现，使用手机或敲击电脑键盘发送或接收电子信息会暂时降低使用者约十个百分点的智商。根据英国研究人员的研究，吸食大麻会使智商下降个百分点，而与之相比，经常使用电子文本信息造成的智力衰减率更加严重。研究人员将这种暂时变笨的现象称为“信息狂躁”。

关于剥夺睡眠的研究表明因为痴迷于电子产品而造成的智力衰退相当于一夜失眠。惠普科技公司委托进行的研究结果表明，信息狂躁主要表现在成年人身上，尤其是成年男性。

造成这种智力明显衰退的原因在于当员工们应该集中精力工作时，“无处不在”的科技却总是不断分散他们的注意力。信息狂躁是指他们的意识近乎一直处于一种随时对“技术”做出反应的状态，因而无法将注意力集中在手头的工作上。报告中说，因为工人们的虚弱，通过中断了业务会议而失去生产效率，并且破坏了社交聚会的范围。

该报告还补充说大脑很难同时应付许多难题，其整体效率会降低。此外，虽然现代科技可以给予我们巨大的帮助，但过多地使用科技也会给人们的大脑和社会生活带来危害。

　　此外，信息狂躁对同事也有负面影响，增加他们的压力和敌对情绪。90％的被调查者认为在面对面会议时回电子邮件是非常无礼的行为。但是三分之一的英国人不仅可以接受这种行为，而且觉得这样做说明自己工作勤奋、高效。

　　伦敦大学的心理学家Glenn Wilson博士正在做一个名为“这是一个真实的普遍现象”的研究项目，信息狂躁对智商的影响是其中的一个部分。他说：“如果不进行检查控制，信息狂躁将会降低员工的精神敏感度，进而影响其工作效率。所以，公司应提倡一种更加平衡的适当的工作方式。”

核心单词记忆：

1. text v. 发送短信（文字讯息）[新词义]

2. tap on vt. 在……上轻敲，轻拍

3. knock up v.（使）筋疲力尽，（使）累垮

4. label vt. 贴标签于，指……为，分类，标注

5. deprivation n. 剥夺 动词为 deprive vt. 剥夺，使丧失

6. be equivalent to 相等(当) 于……，等（同）于，与……等效

7. commission vt. 委任，任命，委托，委托制作；n. 委任，委托，代办（权），代理（权），犯（罪），佣金

8. attribute to v. 归因于

9. cope with v. 与……竞争，应付

10. while conj. 虽然，尽管 例句：While the grandparents love the children， they are strict

with them. 虽然祖父母们都爱他们的孩子，但却对他们要求严格。

11. dissenting adj.（=dissentient）不同意的

12. poll v. 投票，获得选票，选举中获得

13. face-to-face adv. 面对面地

14. unchecked adj. 未受制止的，未经检查的，未加抑制的

15. appropriate adj. 适当的

Text 2 使用不健康网络可能有损心理健康

Internet use appears to cause a decline in psychological well-being, according to research at Carnegie Mellon University. Even people who spent just a few hours a week on the Internet experienced more depression and loneliness than those who logged on less frequently, the two-year study showed. And it wasn't that people who were already feeling bad spent more time on the Internet, but that using the Net actually appeared to cause the bad feelings.

Researchers are puzzling over the results, which were completely contrary to their expectations. They expected that the Net would prove socially healthier than television, since the Net allows users to choose their information and to communicate with others.

The fact that Internet use reduces time available for family and friends may account for the drop in well-being, researchers hypothesized. Faceless, bodiless virtual communication may be less psychologically satisfying than actual conversation, and the relationships formed through it may be shallower. Another possibility is that exposure to the wider world via the Net makes users less satisfied with their lives.

But it's important to remember this is not about the technology; it's about how it is used, says psychologist Christine Riley of Intel, one of the study's sponsors. It really points to the need for considering social factors in terms of how you design applications and services for technology.

卡内基麦伦大学的研究表明，使用因特网可能会导致心理健康程度下降。两年的研究表明，上网次数多的人与较少的人相比，即使是一周仅上网几小时也会经常地感觉到沮丧和孤独。这不是说已经有不良感觉的人在网上花费了更多的时间，而是说使用因特网似乎确实诱发了人们的不良感觉。

研究人员对这些结果困惑不解，因为这与他们的预料截然相反。他们预测，和看电视相比，从社交角度来说，上网可能更健康一些，因为网络允许使用者选择自己需要的信息并且和别人进行交流。

研究者推测说，实际情况是上网使网民减少了和家人及朋友共度的时光，这也许可以解释他们心理健康状况下降的原因。和面对面的交谈相比，这种见不着面、看不见人的“虚拟”的交流可能会使人从心理上缺乏满足感。人们通过这种交流结下的友谊也不会太深。还有一种可能是，网民通过因特网所了解到的广阔世界使他们对自己的生活不那么满意了。

“然而，重要的是不要忘记这与技术本身是无关的，问题在于如何使用因特网。”这项研究的发起人之一、心理学家、英特尔公司的克里斯廷·赖利说，“这的确表明在考虑从技术上如何设计应用和服务时有必要把社会因素考虑进去。

核心单词记忆：

1. available 可利用的，可支配的； 例句The swimming pool is available only in summer. 这个游泳池只在夏天开放。

2. contrary to 与……相反 例句：What you are doing now is contrary to the doctor's advice.

3. hypothesize 假设，假定；

4. virtual [电脑]虚拟的，虚的；对于这个词可以结合上下文理解. Faceless, bodiless virtual

communication may be less psychologically satisfying than actual conversation, and the relationships formed through it may be shallower. 文中virtual communication对应着后面的actual conversation，又有than，可以想到这是两个对应的反义词。

5. actual 现实的；

6. exposure to 暴露，（文中引申为了解） 例句：The paint came off as the result of exposure

to the rain.油漆因受雨淋而剥落。

7. sponsor 发起者，主办者，赞助者

考研时文阅读（13A）

Is GE food Safe to Eat?

转基因食物食用是否安全?

Traditional plant breeding involves crossing varieties of the same species in ways they could cross naturally. For example, disease－resistant varieties of wheat have been crossed with high－yield wheat to combine these properties. This type of natural gene exchange is safe and fairly predictable.

Genetic engineering（GE）involves exchanging genes between unrelated species that cannot naturally exchange genes with each other. GE can involve the exchange of genes between vastly different species, e.g. putting scorpion toxin genes into maize or fish antifreeze genes into tomatoes. It is possible that a scorpion toxin gene, even when it is in maize DNA, will still get the organism to produce scorpion toxin, but what other effects may it have in this alien environment? We are already seeing this problem——adding human growth hormone genes to pigs certainly makes them grow——but it also gives them arthritis and makes them cross－eyed, which was entirely unpredictable.

It will be obvious, for example, that the gene for human intelligence will not have the same effect if inserted into cabbage DNA as it had in human DNA——but what side－effect would it have? In other words, is GE food safe to eat? The answer is that nobody knows because long－term tests have not been carried out.

　　Companies wanting a GE product approved in the UK or USA are required to provide regulatory bodies with results of their own safety tests. Monsanto''s soya beans were apparently fed to fish for 10 weeks before being approved. There was no requirement for independent testing, for long-term testing, for testing on humans or testing for specific dangers to children or allergic people.

　　The current position of the UK Government is that there is no evidence of long-term dangers from GE foods. In the US, the American Food and Drug Administration is currently being prosecuted for covering up research that suggested possible risks from GE foods.

传统的植物培育方法，是用植物自然杂交的方式，来进行相同物种的人工杂交。比如，抗病小麦同高产小麦杂交，形成了一种具有双重特性的新的小麦品种。这种自然的基因交换既安全，又具有相当的可预见性。

基因工程是在彼此毫无关系的物种之间，相互交换在自然条件下无法交换的基因。它可在有巨大差异的物种之间进行基因交换。比如，将蝎子毒素基因注入玉米，或者将鱼防冻基因注入西红柿。即使在玉米DNA中，蝎子毒素基因依然可能获得有机组织产生蝎子毒素。但是在这种异质的环境中，这种基因产品会有什么其他作用吗？我们实际上已经发现这个问题：将人类生长荷尔蒙基因植入猪的体内，一定会使猪的生长加速，但是同时也使猪患上了关节炎和内斜视，而这一切是完全无法预测的比如，人类的智力基因显而易见在人体DNA内和注入卷心菜DNA后的作用是不同的。但将它植入卷心菜中会产生什么样的副作用呢？换句话说，食用转基因食品安全吗？没有人知道答案，因为人们尚未进行长期的测试。

在英国或者美国，一个公司如果希望其转基因产品获得批准，它必须向管理机构提供本公司转基因产品安全测试的结果。Monsanto的大豆在获得批准之前，曾用了10周时间进行喂鱼试验。目前，尚无要求对转基因产品进行独立测试、长期测试、人体测试，或者就其对儿童及过敏者所造成的特定危险进行测试。

英国政府目前的态度是：“尚无证据表明食用转基因食品存在长期性的危险。”在美国，人们正在起诉美国食品药品管理局掩盖转基因食品安全性的研究结果，这些研究结果表明，食用转基因食品可能导致危险。

核心单词：

1. breeding 生育，繁殖，培植

2. resistant 抵抗的、防……的

3. yield 出产，结出，被迫放弃 例句：These apple trees yield plenty of fruit this year. 这些苹果树今年结了许多苹果。例句：He was forced to yield the castle. 他被迫放弃城堡。

4. property 特性，属性 例句：He is studying the medicinal properties of wild plants. 他正在研究野生植物的药物特性。

5. scorpion 蝎子

6. toxin 毒素

7. alien 外国的，性质不相容的；例句：Her behavior is alien to our ethical values. 她的行为和我们的伦理标准格格不入。

8. side-effect 副作用

考研时文阅读(13B)

The history of life on earth has been a history of interaction between living things and their surroundings. To a large extent, the physical form and the habits of the earth's vegetation and its animal life have been molded by the environment. Considering the whole span of earthly time, the opposite effect, in which life actually modifies its surroundings, has been relatively slight. Only in the present century has one species man acquired significant power to alter the nature of his world.

During the past quarter century this power has not only become increasingly great but it has changed in character. The most alarming of all man's assaults upon the environment is the contamination of air, earth, rivers, and sea with dangerous and even lethal materials. This pollution is for the most part irrecoverable. In this now universal contamination of the environment, chemicals are the sinister partners of radiation in changing the very nature of the world as well as the very nature of its life. Chemicals sprayed on croplands or forests or gardens lie long in soil, entering into living organisms, passing from one to another in a chain of poisoning and death. Or they pass mysteriously by underground streams until they emerge and combine into new forms that kill vegetation, sicken cattle, and work unknown harm on those who drink from once pure wells. Man can hardly even recognize the devils of his own creation, as a scientist has said.

It took hundreds of millions of years to produce the life that now inhabits the earth. Given time not in years but in millennia life adjusts, and a balance has been reached. But in the modern world there is no time.

The rapidity of change follows the impetuous pace of man rather than the deliberate pace of nature. Radiation is now the unnatural creation of man's tampering with the atom. The chemicals are the synthetic creations of man's inventive mind, having no counterparts in nature.

To adjust to these chemicals would require not merely the years of a man's life but the life of generations. And even this, were it by some miracle possible, would be futile, for the new chemicals come from our laboratories in an endless stream; almost five hundred annually find their way into actual use in the United States alone. Among them are many that are used in man's war against nature. Since the mid 1940's over 200 basic chemicals have been created for use in killing insects, weeds, and other organisms described as pests.

地球上生命的历史一直就是一部生物与其环境相互作用的历史。在很大程度上，地球上动植物的形态以及习性都是由外部环境所塑造的。考虑到地球上生命存在的整个时间，相反作用，即生命对其周围环境的实际改变作用，却相对很小。只有在当前这个世纪（指20世纪）才有一个物种——人类，获得了强大的力量，改变了其所生存的世界的自然状态。

在过去的1/4世纪中，这种力量不仅日趋强大，而且其性质也发生了变化。在人类破坏环境的种种行为中，最令人担忧的是人类向大气、土壤、河流以及海洋中排放危险甚至致命物质，而当今这种污染在很大程度上是无法挽救的。在当今这种对环境的普遍污染中，化学制品与辐射狼狈为奸，改变着地球的自然状态，也就是改变着地球上生命的自然状态。喷洒到农田、森林或者花园里的化学物质长期滞留于土壤中，渗入有机体内，并彼此相传，形成了一个中毒与死亡的链条。化学物质还神秘地通过地下水传递，最终以新的形式出现并结合，使植物毒死，牲畜害病，并使饮用一度纯净的井水的人遭受了不明之害。正如一位科学家所言：“人类甚至对自己创造的恶魔都不认识。”

地球历经了许多亿年才创造了栖息其上的生命。经过了一定时间——不是以若干年计而是以若干千年计的时间——生命开始适应环境，并形成了一种与环境的平衡。但是在现代世界中，时间这一因素已经没有了。

环境改变的速度不再顺从大自然从容不迫的节奏，而是顺从人类急切匆匆的步伐。辐射是当今人类通过支配原子而得到的一种非自然的创造物。化学制品则是人类有发明创造力的头脑创造出来的合成物，在自然界本无相应的东西。

为了适应这些化学制品，人类需要付出的时间不会只是一个人一生的时间，而是几代人的时间。而即使这样，就算出现奇迹成为可能，这种适应也是徒劳的，因为新的化学制品从我们的实验室中源源不断地涌出。仅在美国，每年就有大约500种化学制品投入使用，其中许多是用于人类对自然的战争中。从20世纪40年代中期起，人类已经创造了200多种基本化学制品用来消灭昆虫、野草以及其他所谓的“有害生物”。

重点词汇：

1. character（人的）品质，性格；（事物的）性质、特性；He has a changeable character. 他性格多变。

2. assault 攻击，袭击 They made a strong assault on the town. 他们猛烈攻击这个镇子。

3. spray 浪花，水花，喷液 Did you bring along some insect spray？你带来杀虫剂了吗？

4. impetuous 性急的，鲁莽的 It was impetuous of her to do that. 她竟做那种事，真是鲁莽。

5. deliberate 不慌不忙的，从容的 He is deliberate in his speech. 他说话从容不迫。The rapidity of change follows the impetuous pace of man rather than the deliberate pace of nature. 可见由than相连，

必然是两个反义词。

6. futile 无益的，无效的，无希望的 His efforts to save the business were futile. 他挽救公司的努力未能奏效。

考研时文阅读（14）篇章结构分析

本文所讨论的中心主题是：由于电视业不断地在进行结构调整，结果造成了一种商业主义泛滥的文化氛围。作者在第一段指出英国媒体的一个阴暗面，并指出对电视业的行业标准与诚信逐渐沦丧的一个普遍存在的原因。接着，作者在第二、三段分析了这个问题的一些其它原因。作者在第四段用了一个转折词but,指出一个最为重要但却被公众所忽视并不理解的原因：节目制作被外包给独立的公司。最后作者分析了在电视业培养诚信和保证质量的最好方法。属于现象分析型文章。

The abundant commentary on British television’s faking crises, including Jeremy Pitman’s recent Mac Taggart Lecture, doesn’t show British’s media in the best light. The chorus of TV executives complaining that the core issue is a loss of “trust” is a poor substitute for probing analysis of the underlying reasons why television’s standards and integrity have been undermined.

In many accounts, the BBC’s current agonies are integrated with the pervasive apprehension afflicting the TV industry. This is not to excuse the BBC. But the wider problems have been worsening for a decade, and they affect the BBC because the corporation is inevitably influenced by the wider broadcasting ecology.

The causes of the problems are several. Hyper-competition from the early Nineties onwards has led to a culture of rampant commercialism from which the BBC is not exempt, as is shown by the promotion of ratings-chasing, sensationalist and populist programs. Crucial, too, are the changes to working conditions, in particular a catastrophic decline in training, the growth of short-term employment, the erosion of career structures, and prevalent ageism, which leads to experienced producers being kicked out at 50 or before.

But the most important cause is obscured in the present debate: the outsourcing of production to independent companies, the leading figures of which are international businesses, and which are particularly tempted to put profit over standards and quality. This is where the government comes in, as the prominent position of the independents is due to repeated restructurings of the industry, during which the old producer-broadcasters were collapsed and the independents were given more and more of the cake. Right now, spurred on by a disappointing license-fee settlement, the BBC is making further cuts to its already depleted production base and increasing independent programming. Why should this matter? Because with outsourcing, the lines of communication and responsibility are fragmented, making it difficult for broadcasters to oversee and enforce standards with disobedient commercial suppliers. This problem is rarely acknowledged and little understood in public debate.

Renewed values and purposes: these can’t stem the tide when the incentives are piled to encourage deliberate deception and the manufacture of celebrity. Finally, nor is it true to claim, as some executives complacently do, that audiences have only recently decided they expect more from television. For some years, research has shown that audiences are mightily fed up with the diet of lacking initiative, low-quality output. The BBC can’t reverse the rot alone. As has been recently grasped, integrity and quality are best cultivated competitively between media companies that are regulated and funded to deliver them.

The independents are a varied bunch. Some, like, End mol, are multinational subsidiaries that pride themselves on delivering ratings. Such companies can sometimes cross-subsidies to support adventurous fare. But, as an RDF executive told me, ultimately their operations are driven just as much by the bottom line. That RDF’s creative director, Stephen Lambert---previously in charge of some of the BBC’s finest documentary output----was the man who edited the culpable publicity tape is a tragic but telling symptom of the Faustian pact driving the TV industry. This is not just about Lambert’s individual failing; the rot is systematic.

有关英国电视媒体造假危机长篇累牍的评论----包括杰里米帕克斯曼最近所做的麦克塔格特纪念演说----暴露出英国媒体的一个阴暗面。电视业管理者们齐声抱怨的问题的关键是“责任”的丧失，但这一说法并不能取代对电视业的行业标准与诚信逐渐沦丧的根本原因所进行的深入分析。

在很大程度上，BBC眼下的麻烦是与困扰电视业的普遍担忧相伴随的问题。这并不是要为BBC开脱。但更广泛的问题十年来一直在恶化，这些问题也影响到了BBC，因为在这样的媒体大环境之下，它也难以独善其身。

问题的原因是多方面的。自上世纪90年代以来，过度竞争导致商业主义泛滥的文化氛围。BBC也未能幸免，这从它提倡追求收视率、轰动效应、媚俗的节目即可看出。同样重要的原因还包括工作状况的变化，尤其是职业培训严重滑坡、短期聘用增加、从业者结构恶化以及普遍存在的年龄歧视等，而年龄歧视导致许多有经验的制作人在50岁甚至不到50岁就被扫地出门。

然而最为重要的原因却在目前的争论中被掩盖了起来：节目制作被外包给独立的公司，这些公司中的那些显赫者都是一些跨国公司，它们尤其会受到利润的驱使而使其凌驾于标准和质量之上。在这一点上，政府摆脱不了干系，因为这些独立公司的突出地位是由于电视业的多次结构调整而造成的。在此过程中，旧的制作、播放一体的体制遭到瓦解，独立制作公司分得的蛋糕则越来越大。眼下，受到令人失望的许可证费用方案的推动，BBC进一步削减了它原本就已萎缩的制作基地，同时增加独立公司的节目编排。为什么这一点关系重大？因为由于实行外包，制作的交流和责任链条就被割裂，遇到难对付的商业供片商，播出方就很难监督和强化节目的水准。这一问题在公众讨论过程中很少为人所认识和理解。重建的价值观和目的：这些都阻止不了道德滑坡的趋势，因为这个方面的因素都在激发从业者的蓄意欺骗和制造名人效应行为。最后，事实并不像一些管理者们得意声称的那样，观众们只是最近才决定对电视节目给予更多期待。研究显示，观众多年来早已受够了那些制作播出的相互抄袭、质量低劣的节目了。单靠BBC一家无法逆转这种腐败之势。正如最近认识到的那样，只有在加强监督和资金投入的同时，促进媒体公司之间的竞争，才是培养诚信和保证质量的最好办法。

这些独立制作公司形形色色。有些跨国公司的子公司，如End mol公司，它们以提高收视率的产品而感到自豪。这类公司有时候相互提供资金支持，以完成一些冒险性节日。但是，正如RDF的一位管理者告诉我的那样，他们经营的最终动力还是赢利。RDF的创意总监Stephen Lambert---过去曾是BBC制作出的一些最精良的记录片的负责人----就是对那盘难辞其咎的宣传录像带进行编辑加工的人。这一事实虽然令人悲哀，却是背后驱策电视业的浮士德契约的鲜活例证。这不只是Lambert个人的污点，这种腐败是全行业的。

考研时文阅读（15A） How safe is biosafe?

Dressed in blue scrubs and disposable underwear, Simon Caidan cautiously transfers liquid into a series of bottles inside the airtight cabinet in front of him. His arms are pushed up to his elbows in a pair of gloves sealed to the glass, preventing him from coming into contact with the potentially deadly material inside.

This is one of the most secure research laboratories in Britain, dealing with some of the world's most dangerous diseases. The threat posed by the pathogens kept here, on the outskirts of north London, is so great that the rooms are maintained at a lower air pressure than the outside to ensure nothing can escape when the doors are opened.

All the air passing through the building is filtered several times to strip it of even the finest particles, while staff have to remove all clothing before entering and must shower before leaving. If there is a leakage, the entire laboratory can be sealed and fumigated.

Yet, despite these formidable safety measures, it is from a laboratory similar to this that a foot and mouth virus is thought to have escaped, infecting nearby livestock. Initial reports into the outbreak in Normandy, Surrey, have pointed to a high-security laboratory in Pirbright, three miles away, shared by the government-funded Institute for Animal Health and a private drug firm, Merial UK.

The incident has sparked grave concerns about the state of the country's secure laboratories and the threat they pose. If a virus can escape from one such laboratory, can it happen again? And next time, could it be from a lab handling deadly human diseases?

In Britain, there are 15 “Containment Level Four” laboratories, the maximum bio-security level, across the country. Each handles some of the deadliest organisms known to man and animals: diseases that are highly infectious, fatal even in low doses and impossible to treat.

“I am surprised there has been a release from a facility in the UK, of all places,” said Dr Ingegerd Kallings, an expert on bio-safety for the World Health Organization and the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control. “You have good regulations in place.” For Dr Kallings, the escape of foot and mouth into the countryside around the Pirbright laboratory illustrates the weak link in the world's bio-security measures: people.

“It comes down to a lax attitude among the staff,” she said. “You can't really blame the age of a facility for an escape, as ultimately the bio-security is not a technical issue.”

What she, and other scientists, fear is that the tight regulations and safety measures can be rendered useless by carelessness. Adhering to safety protocols is tedious, and researchers can pick up bad habits or become complacent. Washing contaminated material down the wrong sink, for instance; carrying infected samples between rooms, or removing equipment from the laboratory before it has been properly decontaminated. All are hard to monitor and prevent.

生物安全有多安全?

身穿蓝色防护服和一次性内衣, 西蒙﹒凯旦小心谨慎地将液体转移到面前密封柜中的一套小瓶子里。他将双臂伸进封帖在玻璃上的一副手套里，直至肘部，以防接触盗柜子里那具潜在致命性的物质。

这是英国最为安全的科研实验室之一，位于伦敦北部郊区，从事世界上一些最具危险性疾病的研究。保存在这里的病原体具有非常大的危险性，因此实验室内的气压维持在低于外界气压的状态，以确保开门时不会发生任何泄露。

所有经由实验室流通的空气都经过数次过滤，以除去哪怕最微小的颗粒，同时，工作人员在进入前必须除掉所有衣物，而且沐浴后才能离开。如果发生泄漏，整个实验室都要封闭，进行熏蒸消毒。

然而，尽管采取了这些严密的安全措施，据认为还是有一个与其类似的实验室发生了口蹄疫病毒泄露，感染了附近的牲畜。关于萨里郡诺曼底所暴发的口蹄疫疫情的初步报告，把矛头指向了位于3英里之外皮尔布赖特的一所高安全性实验室。这所实验室由政府资助的动物卫生研究所和私营的英国梅里亚尔药品公司共管。

该事件引发了人们对英国安全实验室的状况及其所构成威胁的严重关切。如果病毒能从这样的实验室外泄，那么此类事件是否会再次发生？而下一次，病毒是否会从研究致命性人类疾病的实验室外泄？

英国拥有15所“四级防护”实验室，即全国最高生物安全级别实验室。每所实验室所研究的都是一些已知的对人和动物最致命的微生物：最有高度传染性的疾病，哪怕是最小剂量也会致命，而且绝无治愈的可能。

“我很惊讶，在所有那些地方中，偏偏是在英国发生了泄露，”世界卫生组织及瑞典传染病研究所的生物安全专家英格德﹒克林斯博士说，“你们已经制定了严格的规章制度啊。”在克林斯博士可看来，口蹄疫病毒外泄到皮尔布赖特实验室附近的乡村，表明了世界生物安全措施中存在的薄弱环节：人。

“归结到一点，就是工作人员态度松懈，”她说，“你的确不能把泄露的原因归为设备老化，因为归根结底生物安全不是一个技术问题。”

她和其他科学家所担心的是，严格的规章制度和安全措施会因粗心大意而变得毫无用处。恪守安全议定书是件令人厌烦的事，研究人员会染上各种坏习惯或变得满不在乎。例如，在错误的水池冲洗被污染的物品，携带被感染的样品穿梭于各个房间，或者未经适当消毒就将设备带出实验室。所有这一切都难以进行监督和预防。

考研时文阅读（15B）

Malicious behavior is even harder to control, if a member of staff decides to smuggle a virus out of a facility. Doctors and scientists, as the recent terrorist attacks on Glasgow airport showed, can be radicalized like anyone else and many experts have pointed at the folly of keeping stocks of dangerous diseases so readily at hand.

Then there are the facilities themselves. Can a simple household electric shower, as used in the National Institute for Medical Research where Mr Caidan works, for instance, remove all traces of a virus?

“Lab accidents happen more frequently than the public knows,” says Ed Hammond, of the Sunshine Project, a non-profit-making organization that monitors the use of biological agents. “They are not always as spectacular as the one in the UK, but I believe there's a real culture of denial about the scale of the problem.”

In 2004, a Russian scientist working on an Ebola vaccine died after pricking her hand with a syringe, while in April 2005, a pandemic strain of Asian flu was released by a laboratory in America after it was accidentally put into test kits sent to scientists around the world. The last known case of smallpox occurred in 1978, when a researcher has resulted in the death of a member of the public...so far.

But campaigners fear that, with more and more research being carried out on these hazardous organisms, the risk of accidents and escapes is increasing. The viruses kept in Containment Level Four laboratories are among the most infectious. Just a few of the tiny organisms are needed to cause disease. Once out in the community, they would spread quickly, with little chance of controlling them, and there are effective treatments for few of them.

At the National Institute for Medical Research, scientists are studying the deadly H5N1 avian flu virus. Samples from infected people are brought to the facility in London's Mill Hill for analysis. Researchers have also been working on the 1918 pandemic flu strain that killed about 50 million people. If this strain of the virus were to escape, it could cause a fresh pandemic, as virtually no one would have immunity.

“This is why the regulations have to be so strict,” explains Mr Caidan, the head of safety for the site. “We are not just protecting our staff, but the environment and the general public.”

So why are we taking the risk at all? “We need to carry out research on these organisms so we can understand them better and produce ways of treating them,” says Prof Philip Duffus, an animal virologist at Bristol University. “We also need to handle samples for diagnosis of these diseases.”

While the investigation into how the foot and mouth virus escaped from the Pirbright site continues, there are now doubts as to whether the laboratory is still fit for purpose. There are also questions about whether liquid waste from the Merial buildings and the Institute for Animal Health laboratory was treated sufficiently to kill any virus it contained, and investigators are still examining whether the disease could have been carried off the site by a member of staff.

Regardless of the outbreak's cause, the safety of Britain's high-security laboratories will have to be improved. The WHO will publish new international standards for containing dangerous pathogens next year. The fear of the escape of a deadly human virus is sending many a shiver down white-coated spines.

如果一名工作人员决意把病毒偷偷带出实验室，那么这种恶意行为就会更加难以控制。最近格拉斯哥机场遭到的恐怖袭击表明，医生和科学家与其他人一样也会变成激进分子，很多专家也指出，使大量危险性病菌唾手可得是件愚蠢的事。

设备本身也有问题。简单的家用电淋浴----比如凯旦先生供职的国家医学研究所所使用的那种-----能够冲洗掉所有病毒残余吗？

“实验室事故的发生比公众所知道的要频繁，”来自监控生物制剂使用的非赢利机构“阳光计划”的埃德﹒哈蒙德说，“这些事故并不像英国的这起这样惊人，不过我觉得，的确存在一种否认问题严重性的现象。”

2004年，一位从事埃博拉病毒疫苗研究的俄罗斯科学家因被注射器扎伤了手而身亡；2005年4月，美国一家实验室在发往全世界科学家的试验箱中，不慎放入了一种亚洲型流感病株，导致病毒外泄。最近的一个为人所知的天花感染事件发生在1978年，当时伯明翰大学的一名研究人员受到感染。到目前为止，尚没有一起实验室事故导致公众死亡。

但是社会活动人士担心，随着对这些危险微生物研究的日益增多，事故和外泄的风险也在增加。保存在“四级防护”实验室中的病毒都属于最具传染性的病毒。这些微小的生物体只需极少的一点就能致病。一旦外泄，就会迅速扩散，几无控制的可能，也没有有效的治疗方法。

在国家医学研究所，科学家们正从事H5N1型致命性禽流感病毒的研究。从感染者身上获取的样本被带到伦敦米尔西尔的实验室进行分析。同时，研究人员也一直在研究1918年流感病株，那场流感造成大约5000万人死亡。如果该病毒的病株外泄，就会导致新一轮大流感暴发，因为几乎没有人能对其免疫。

“这就是规章制度必须如此严格的原因，”实验场地安全负责人凯旦先生解释说，“我们不只是在保护自己的工作人员，而且也是在保护环境和公众。”

那么我们为什么还要冒此风险呢？“我们需要对这些微生物进行研究，这样才能更好的了解它们，找到对付它们的办法，”布里斯托尔大学动物病毒学家菲利普﹒达弗斯说，“我们还需要研究样本，以诊断这些病毒。”

尽管针对口蹄疫病毒如何从皮尔布赖特外泄的调查仍在继续，人们已经开始怀疑这个实验室是否还适于使用。同时，人们也在质疑梅里亚尔公司和动物卫生研究所共管的这所实验室排出的液体废物是否经过了充分处理，杀死了其中含带的任何病毒，而调查人员也仍在调查该病毒是否有被工作人员带出实验室的可能。

一名最近参观过皮尔布赖特实验室的高级实验室安全专家也对日益老化的设备能否有效维护生物安全表示担忧。“我所见到的情况非常令人震惊，”他说，“那里有优秀的科学家，但是设备太老了，与更为现代化的设备相比，出错的可能性更大。”

不管疫情暴发的原因是什么，英国高安全性实验室的安全必须得到加强。世界卫生组织明年将发布危险性病原体保存的国际新标准。致命性人类病毒外泄造成的恐惧令身着白大褂的试验人员脊骨发凉。

考研时文阅读（16）

The press in recent times has been all about the press. The Murdoch takeover of The Wall Street Journal has dominated the news. Is he a savior or a spoiler? Beyond that, there have been many articles recently about the glum future of newspapers. Are they dying? Can the Internet save serious journalism?

The fact that these big newspapers have gone public makes things worse as Wall Street has weighed in with attacks on the management of The New York Times and their lack of financial performance. Even Warren Buffet has pronounced that the present model------meaning print-----isn't going to work. Being publicly owned puts all the focus on the numbers. And when you're trying to improve your numbers to make investors happy, you cut the things you should be investing in such as people, promotion and innovation.

No one has worked harder to improve the numbers than Donald Graham, the CEO of the Washington Post Co.. He was one of the first to aggressively push into the digital world, yet critics say Graham needs to move even faster to get the business online.

In an effort to recapture young readers, the Post in 2003 started a free weekday newspaper called the Express, which now publishes 185,000 copies a day. It's profitable. A year later the company acquired El Tiempo Latino, a Spanish-language weekly. It also publishes five paid-circulation suburban newspapers, 34 free suburban weeklies, 12 military newspapers, and real estate and auto guides. To squeeze a few more dollars out of its presses and trucks, the Post Co. distributes The Wall Street Journal in Washington, and it prints and circulates the local edition of the satirical newspaper The Onion.

Yet, despite all this effort, print advertising revenue at the Post is six times that of Internet revenue. It's still about the paper. Needless to say, all this is one tough marketing problem.

Sometimes to solve a problem in one industry you have to study other analogous industries. In this case I would look to the retail world. There are similarities. The store name is the brand where I go to shop. The newspaper name is the brand where I go to read. In both instances, I go for what's in each, so content is important. And in both instances, there are competitive forces that are causing great difficulties.

For example, good old Sears Roebuck has been under enormous price pressure from the likes of Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Sears, through the years, built very powerful brands. Names like Die Hard, Kenmore, Craftsman and Weather-beater Paint are what make the difference for Sears. If they are

to survive, their strategy should be to promote these brands as “sold only at Sears.” They can't compete on price or selection.

In my estimation, newspapers like The New York Times and The Washington Post have to pursue a similar “read only at” strategy. They have to work hard at aggressively branding their writers such as The Times' Tom Friedman, Maureen Dowd or Paul Krugman. The more powerful these brands become, the more I'll have to buy the paper or pay to read them on the Internet. Also, the more I'll be willing to pay for the paper. The sports world understands this. If Tiger Woods isn't in the tournament, television ratings take a big hit. Why do you think that Los Angeles soccer team paid so much to get Beckham to kick a ball around?

Beyond the celebrity writers, newspapers have to talk more about their reporting staff----how many they have all around the world and their credentials. They have to point out that accuracy takes money, hard work and lots of talent. (Stuff you can't get from the bloggers, cable television or The Daily Show.) Many years ago, The Wall Street Journal ran an ad with the headline: “Every day the Kremlin gets 12 copies of The Wall Street Journal. Maybe they know something you don't know.” Now that's the kind of advertising I would like to see more of on behalf of their hardworking staffs.

What newspapers have to realize is that in today's over-communicated world, it's as much about content as it's about news. It's as much about celebrity as unknown reporters. It's as much about how you get the news as just printing it. This might be a tough reality to face for the owners of these papers, but the barbarians are at the gates. You've got to wheel out and aggressively promote your big guns, your organization and why you should be read.

And, if you keep your readers, the advertisers will come.

报纸向何处去？

最近一个时期，媒体的报道都和新闻媒体有关。默克多收购《华尔街日报》事件占据了新闻报道的头条。他是个救星还是个毁灭者？除此之外，最近还有许多文章在探讨报纸的惨谈前景。报纸濒于消亡？互联网能拯救严肃的新闻事业吗？

大报社公司上市的事实会使得情况变得更糟，因为华尔街已经对《纽约时报》的管理不善和财务状况不佳提出了抨击。就连沃伦巴菲特都宣称，目前的模式-----意指印刷媒体----快不行了。上市使得人们只关注数字。当你试图改善这些数字以取悦投资者的时候，你就会置人才、推销和创新于不顾，而这些才是你应该投入精力关注的。

华盛顿邮报公司的首席执行官唐纳德格雷厄姆为改善这些数字所做出的努力无人能及。他是向数字领域狂飙突进的先行者之一，但批评家们说格雷厄姆还需要加快速度把业务推广到网路上。

为了重新获得年轻读者的青睐，华盛顿邮报公司在2003年推出了《快报》。这是一份供读者在工作日阅读的免费小报，目前的日发行量达18.5万份，收益颇丰。一年后，公司又把一家西班牙周刊 El Tiempo Latino 并购到旗下。华盛顿邮报公司还出版了5种郊区付费报纸，34种免费的郊区周刊，12种军事报纸，以及房地产和汽车指南读物等。为了能从其印刷成本和卡车运费中多省出几美元，该公司在华盛顿分销《华尔街日报》，并印刷和发行了本地版的讽刺类报纸《洋葱报》。

然而，然而在做了这么多努力的同时，华盛顿邮报公司的印刷广告收入达到了互联网广告收入的6倍。看来还是报纸的天下。不用说，所有这一切都是个棘手的营销问题。

为了解决一个行业中的某项问题。有时你必须去研究其他类似行业的情况。鉴于此，我将把目光投向零售业领域，因为二者之间存在着相似之处。商店名就是我去购物的品牌。报纸名就是我阅读的品牌。对于二者，我都要去看里面有什么，所以内容是很重要的。而在两种情况下，都会面临带来巨大挑战的竞争性力量。

例如，大名鼎鼎的老牌西尔斯﹒罗巴克公司就一直承受着来自像沃尔玛和家得宝一类公司在价格上的巨大压力。西尔斯历经数年建立了非常强大的品牌优势。像 Die Hard、Kenmore、Craftsman 和 Weatherbeater Paint 一类的品牌造就了西尔斯的与众不同。如果它们想生存下去，其策略就必须是宣扬这些品牌是“西尔斯独家销售”。它们无法在价格或选择性上与其他强手展开竞争。

我估计，像《纽约时报》和《华盛顿邮报》这样的报纸必须追求一种类似的“独家刊载”的策略。它们必须力推高调树立其撰稿人的品牌形象，就像《纽约时报》的汤姆﹒弗里德曼，莫琳﹒多德或者保罗﹒克鲁格曼。这些品牌影响力越强，我就越得去买这份报纸，或付费在互联网上阅读，而且我也更心甘情愿地花钱买这份报纸。体育界是深谙此道的。如果泰格﹒伍兹不参加锦标赛，电视收视率就会大打折扣。你想，要不洛杉矶的足球队干嘛要花那么多钱请贝克汉姆来踢个球呢？

除了明星撰稿人外，报纸还必须要宣扬其报道团队---它们在全世界有多少记者及其资历。它们必须指出，准确地报道需要金钱、努力工作和众多的才干。（这些你是无法从博客、有线电视或《每日秀》节目中获取的）。多年以前，《华尔街日报》刊载的一条广告的大标题是：“克里姆林宫每天都订12份《华尔街日报》。或许他们知道一些你不知道的事。”现在，这就是我更加想看到的广告，它代表了那些辛勤工作的员工们。

报纸必须认识到，在当今这个通讯过度发达的世界，内容与新闻同等重要。名人与无名记者同等重要。获取新闻的渠道与刊载新闻同等重要。对这些报纸的所有者来说，这可能是个需要面对的严酷现实，但野蛮人就站在门口虎视眈眈地等着收购你。你必须赶快行动，积极宣传你的大腕作者、你的团队和让人阅读你的报纸的理由。

何况，如果你能笼络住读者，广告商也就接踵而至了。

考研时文阅读（17A）

本文是一篇说明文，主要介绍了两位博士对午睡和健康关系的一项最新研究。第一段提出了有关午睡的话题，并以一些名人的午睡特点来加以例证，接着介绍了纳斯卡和特里克伯罗斯所进行的研究，说明午睡可以延长人的生命；第二段进一步详细地阐述其研究的结果；第三段作者驳斥了地中海饮食可能影响实验结果可信度的说法；在第四段里，特里克伯罗斯博士建议人们为了健康尽量午睡。

Sloth(怠惰, 懒惰) may be seen as a sin, but some of history's most accomplished men were fond of lounging around. Leonardo da Vinci enjoyed napping. So did Albert Einstein and Winston Churchill. Richard Buckminster Fuller advocated taking 30-minute naps every six hours. No one has yet proved a correlation between napping and artistic brilliance or professional success, but an intriguing study published this week claims to find a link between daytime siestas and good health. A team of researchers led by Androniki Naska and Dimitrios Trichopoulos of Harvard's School of Public Health followed over 23,000 Greek patients with no history of cancer or stroke, for an average of six years. Their conclusion: napping just might save your life.

The study found that the group of adults who took 30-minute siestas at least three times a week had a third fewer deaths from heart disease than an equivalent group who did not sleep at all during the day. The benefit was greater for men than for women. It was also greater for working males than for those who had retired. However, a number of previous studies done in the Mediterranean and in parts of Central America (where siestas remain common) have come up with conflicting results, but Dr. Naska and Dr. Trichopoulos argue that those studies have often been flawed. The subjects in some, for example, had survived heart attacks and may therefore have benefited more from napping than healthy individuals do.

Given that all of the subjects of this new study were Greeks; could the much-celebrated Mediterranean diet deserve credit, rather than the siestas? The firm answer from Dr Trichopoulos is “No”. And he is in a good position to say so, for it was he who did the pioneering research that put olive oil and a plant-based diet on the scientific map in the first place. Unlike some other nap studies, his was controlled for diet, smoking, exercise and other relevant variables. The earlier findings about the benefits of the Mediterranean diet are confirmed, he says, and napping seems to help on top of that.

Before buying a sofa for the office, however, it might be wise to consider the possibility of selection bias. Dr Trichopoulos concludes that “Type A” personalities, whose hard-working lives may make them prone to heart attacks, are also much less likely to take naps during the day. That bias might be distorting the study's results. Even so, he advises, “Take a nap if you can.”

参考译文

懒惰也许会被人们认为是一种罪过，但是历史上一些最成功的人士却喜欢悠闲懒散的生活。列奥纳多·达芬奇喜欢午睡，阿尔伯特爱因斯坦和温斯顿丘吉尔也一样喜欢午睡。里查德巴克明斯行福勒提倡每隔6个小时就小睡30分钟。没有人能够证明午睡与杰出的艺术才能或者事业上的成功有相互关系，但是本周一份引人入胜的研究报告声称发现了日间午睡与健康之间的一种联系。一个由安德罗尼基·纳斯卡和哈佛公共卫生学院的特里克伯罗斯所领导的研究小组对23,000名没有癌症或者中风记录的希腊病人，进行了长达6年的研究，该研究结果表明：午睡有可能延长人的生命。

这项研究发现，那些每周至少午休3次，且每次午睡至少30分钟的成人组与日间从不午休的成人组相比，患心脏病致死的概率低了1/3。男性从午睡中的获益比女性更加明显。上班的男性比退休人士的获益更为明显。但是，在午休仍然普遍的地中海地区和中美洲的部分地区曾进行过的一些研究得到的却是与此矛盾的结果，不过纳斯卡博士和特里克伯罗斯博士认为这些研究都存在问题。比如，一些曾经有过心脏病发作史的研究对象从午睡中的获益相对于那些健康人要明显得多。

鉴于所有的研究对象都是希腊人，那些影响因素是否是驰名的地中海饮食而不是午休呢？特里克伯罗斯博士坚定地回答说“不”。他的回答是令人信服的，因为正是他开创性地将橄榄油和以素食为主的饮食放到科学领域内来进行研究。与其它关于午休研究不同的是，他的研究控制了饮食、吸烟、运动和其他相关的变量。他说，早前关于地中海饮食益处的研究已经得到了肯定，而午睡在饮食的基础上也起到了最为重要的作用。

在办公室添置沙发之前, 最好还是先考虑一下选择性偏见的可能性。特里克伯罗斯博士认为那些辛勤工作从而易发心脏病的“A型”个性的人，在白天小睡比较少。这些偏见也许会与研究报告的结果相矛盾。即便如此，特里克伯罗斯博士还是建议，“如果可以的话就小睡一会吧”。

考研时文阅读（17B）

本文论述了肥胖在人与人之间的相互影响及其相互影响这一问题。第一段通过一个最新研究来引出人们越来越肥胖这一话题；第二段用具体数据进一步阐述了这一研究结果；第三段论述了朋友关系对于肥胖的不同影响及其原因；第四段指出家庭关系和兄弟姐妹关系对肥胖有影响，但并不重要，真正重要的原因是其社会标准。最后一段提出人与人之间的这种相互影响关系也同样适用于减肥。

核心词组

participate in 参加，参与

in the context of 在…背景下，在…环境下

identify…as… 把…当作是

for one thing 首先，第一

have … to do with 与…有关

as much …as 与…一样多，与…一样也是

be involved in 与…有关，卷入到

after all 毕竟

According to the new research appearing in the July 26 issue of The New England Journal of Medicine, obesity isn't just spreading; rather, it may be contagious between people, like a common cold. Researchers from Harvard and the University of California, San Diego, reviewed a database of 12,067 densely interconnected people who had all participated in a major American heart study between 1971 and 2003. It was that information that the NEJM authors mined to explore obesity in the context of a social network.

From their analysis, when a study participant's friend became obese, that first participant had a 57% greater chance of becoming obese himself. In pairs of people in which each identified the other as a close friend, when one person became obese the other had a 171% greater chance of following suit. James Fowler, a political scientist at UC San Diego says that it's not just that people who share similar lifestyles become friends. For one thing, geographic distance between friends in the study seemed to have no impact: friends who lived a 5-hour drive apart and saw each other infrequently were just as influenced by each other's weight gains as those who lived close enough to share weekly take-out meals or basketball games.

The best proof that friendship caused the weight gain, says Fowler, is that people were much more likely to pattern their own behavior on the actions of people they considered friends — but the relationship didn't work in the other direction. If you had named another person as a friend, and your friend became obese, then you were more than 50% more likely to get fat too. But if your friend had not named you as a mutual friend, and you became obese, it would have no significant impact on your friend's weight.

Spouses share meals and a backyard, but the researchers found a much smaller risk of gaining weight—a 37% increase—when one spouse became obese. Siblings share genes, but their influence, too, was much smaller, increasing each other's risk 40%. Fowler believes the effect has much more to do with social norms: whom we look to when considering appropriate social behavior. Having fat friends makes being fat seem more acceptable.

Fowler and Christakis say that the contagion-effect should hold just as much for weight loss as it does for weight gain. "I would hope this influences individuals to get friends and families involved in decisions about health," Fowler says. After all, he says, a weight-loss plan may be more effective if the people closest to you are on a diet. And, if you're successful, your good health will help others achieve a healthy weight too. The impact extends not just to your friends; it turns out — but also to your friends' friends, and even to their friends.

参考译文

根据7月26日出版的《新英格兰医学杂志》，肥胖不仅越来越多，而且它会像感冒一样, 在人与人之间传播。来自哈佛大学和加州大学圣地亚哥分校的研究者查阅了1971至2003年期间参与了美国一项重要心脏研究的12,067位受访者的数据库。受访者之间大多数都有亲密的关系。正是由于这个信息，使得研究者对社会关系对肥胖的影响产生了研究兴趣。

这项研究认为，如果受访者的朋友肥胖的话，那些受访者自己变胖的可能性会高出常人57%。如果两人互为密友的话，那么这一机率将会高出常人171%。加州大学圣地亚哥分校的政治学家詹姆斯·福勒认为不仅仅是只有共同生活习惯的人才会成为朋友。一方面，研究表明朋友之间的地理位置差距不会有影响，相距车程仅5小时但经常不见面的朋友关系对肥胖的影响和每周都一起吃外卖或打篮球的朋友关系一样。

詹姆斯·福勒认为友谊引起肥胖的最好证据就是，人们倾向于和朋友们做一样的事情。如果你把一个人当作朋友，如果他变肥胖了的话，那你的肥胖概率会高出常人50%。要是他不把你当朋友，那么即使你胖了，对他也没影响。

夫妻共处一室，共同进餐，为什么当双方之一变胖的时候，另一方肥胖概率仅仅高了37%。兄弟姐妹们的基因差不多，但他们之间的影响却小得多，只有40%的风险。福勒相信这更多的是由于社会标准的原因，我们看人的时候总是在考虑什么是合适的社会行为。如果你的朋友肥胖，这就意味着你认为肥胖是可以接受的。

福勒和克里斯塔克斯认为这种“朋友之间的影响效应”对于减肥和发胖的影响是一样的。“我希望这个研究能使人们在考虑健康状况时把家人和朋友的因素也考虑进去。” 毕竟，如果你最亲密的朋友与你一起减肥，那么这个计划会更加成功。同时，如果你成功减肥，那么你的健康也会帮助其他人达到理想的体重。这种效果不仅对于你的朋友有效，并且对你朋友的朋友，以及他们的朋友都会有影响。

考研时文阅读（18）

At the World Bank in Washington, officials have posted some new “help wanted” signs. The bank is looking for a few good specialists to focus on adapting to global warming. It’s a small start, perhaps. Still, the ads represent one signal that adaptation is emerging from the political doghouse to take its place among the front-rank options for dealing with climate change.

At least in the developed world, the idea that people should start figuring out how to deal with the projected effects of warming has been overshadowed by calls to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. Some environmentalists have viewed adaptation either as a white flag on the issue or as a refuge of contrarians who despise the broad consensus that human activity is warming the climate.

But last week’s release of a report on the science of global warming----with its projections of warming based on emissions already in the air, as well as on potential future emissions trends----has helped underscore the need. “Climate change is here and now,” notes Ian Noble, a senior climate-change specialist at the World Bank. “We have to adapt.”

In some cases, adaptation can be politically wrenching. Australia, for example, is facing the worst drought in a century. The drought’s length and severity is consistent with some projections of global warming, several scientists note. The national government has proposed a controversial, $ 2.5-billion (Australian) plan to wrest control of the withering Murray-Darling river basin----the country’s largest river system---from the four states in eastern Australia that draw water from it. Meanwhile, Queensland has adopted regulations that since last March have required each new home in the state to draw nearly 40 percent less water than pre-2006 homes. In some towns, building codes specify the installation of large holding tanks to capture and store rain for use in the gardens and to flush toilets.

If Australia represents the dry end of the adaptation spectrum in the develop world, New Orleans and the Gulf Coast may well represent the wet end. The region is still struggling to recover from hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The tragedy surrounding those two storms underline just how maladapted major population centers in the region are to today’s conditions, let alone those that might hold in 2050 or 2100, experts say.

“The reality is that we should be adapting ” and tackling carbon-dioxide emissions at the same time, notes Roger Pielke Jr., a science-policy specialist at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

华盛顿世界银行的官员们发布了新的“紧急招募令”。他们正在寻找几位可以胜任的专家来重点研究顺应全球变暖的问题。

也许这只是个小小的开端。然而，这则招聘启事还透露出一个信息：应对全球气候变化的各种对策中，顺应变化已经成为政界的优先之选。

至于在发达国家，对于人类应开始设法应对气候变暖的突出影响的呼吁，已经被减少二氧化碳排放的呼声所压倒。一些环境保护论者认为，顺应变化要么意味着对全球变暖问题举白旗，要么就是反对派的权宜之计，他们蔑视人类活动引起了气候变暖这种广泛共识。

然而，上周发布的一份全球变暖科学报告基于已排入大气的二氧化碳数量及未来可能的排放量对气候变暖作出预测，突出了顺应变化的必要性。世行高级气候变化专家Ian Noble说：“气候变化是个迫在眉睫的问题，我们不得不去顺应变化。”

一些情况下，顺应变化可能意味着政策上的重大转变。例如，澳大利亚，该国正在遭遇百年不遇的特大旱灾。一些科学家指出，此次旱灾的持续时间及强度与一些关于全球变暖的预测相一致。澳大利亚政府已经提出一个具争议性的、耗资25亿澳元的方案，以求从自墨累—达令河取水的澳大利亚东部四州那里夺回流域控制权，挽救这一该国最大河系，使其避免干涸的命运。同时，昆士兰州已经下达细则，从去年3月起，要求该州新建住宅用水量比2006年前住宅减少约40%。一些城镇的建筑规范明确规定建筑物需设有大型储水槽来收集和储存雨水，用于灌溉园林和冲洗抽水马桶。

如果说澳大利亚是发达国家中顺应气候变化的干旱区的代表，那么新奥而良与墨西哥湾岸地区则算得上涝灾区的典型。这个地区依然未能从2005年的“卡特里娜”与“丽塔”飓风中完全恢复。专家称，从那两场灾难就可以看出该地区主要人口密集区与当前环境的强烈不适，更不用说，2050年或2100年可能出现的状况了。

位于博尔得的科罗拉多大学科学政策专家小罗杰派而克指出：“现实情况就是我们应该顺应变化”，在此同时也需要去处理二氧化碳排放问题。

考研时文阅读（19）

本文是一篇说明文，通过两项研究来阐述了黑猩猩的语言能力，以及它们的手势和面部表情的一些特点。前两段介绍了卡德勒夫妇的研究成果并引出后两位学者对黑猩猩的其它特征的研究；第三、四段分别介绍了两位学者所提出的研究假设及其研究的结果；末段进一步阐述了手势对于人类大脑语言能力的进化作用。

核心词组记忆

attribute n. 属性, 品质, 特征 sophistication n. 复杂，精致

hard-wired adj. 天生的 adept adj. 熟练的, 拿手

render vt. 致使，导致 successor n. 继承者, 接任者

end in v. 以 … 而结束 be incapable of adj. 不能够

be equivalent to 相当于，类似于 no doubt 毫无疑问

be confined to v. 局限在，限制在 to some extent 在某种程度上

by contrast 相比之下 come up with 提出，想出

vary with 因… 而不同/变化 be built on 以…为基础，指望，依靠

Previous attempts to teach chimpanzees to talk had ended in failure and the matter was considered by most people to be closed. But the Gardners realized that speech and language are not the same thing. Many deaf people, for example, are unable to speak but are perfectly able to communicate by gestures that have all the attributes and sophistication of spoken language. So the Gardners suspected that previous experiments had failed because chimps are physically incapable of speech.

They therefore decided to try teaching a chimpanzee to sign in the way that deaf people do. And their chosen subject, a female chimp named Washoe, proved an adept pupil. Though there is still debate about whether what Washoe learned was really equivalent to human language, there is no doubt that she now has a vocabulary of about 200. All of this, however, raises a second question. If Washoe and her successors can learn a complex and arbitrary vocabulary of gestures from people, do they have such vocabularies naturally? To examine that possibility, Amy Pollick and Frans de Waal have looked at gestures and expressions in chimpanzees.

Signaling by facial and vocal expression is present among primates. Signaling by gesture is confined to the great apes. The researchers' hypothesis was that the meaning of expressions has been hard-wired by evolution whereas the meaning of gestures is learnt and, at least to some extent, is arbitrary. If that were true, particular sorts of facial and vocal expression would occur only in particular contexts, and this would be consistent across groups and even species. The same gestures, by contrast, would be used in different contexts.

The researchers found exactly what they expected. Expressions (“silent bared teeth”, “relaxed open mouth”, etc) almost always occurred in the same contexts in different groups and different species. Gestures (“hard touch”, “reach outside”, etc) did not. Half of the gestures Dr. Pollick and Dr. de Waal regularly observed seemed to have completely different meanings in the two species. Moreover, even within a single group, the meaning of a gesture could vary with context, almost as tone of voice can vary the meaning of a human's spoken word.

It is also worth remembering that gesture is still a crucial part of human language, even for those with normal hearing. Evolution does not come up with complicated structures in a single leap. They are built up step by step. This study suggests that the step of speech may have been built on mental attributes that were acquired millions of years ago when the ancestors of apes and men began to wave meaningfully at each other.

以前曾试图教黑猩猩说话的尝试最后都以失败而告终，大多数人认为这项研究就此结束了。但是卡德勒夫妇意识到说话和语言是两码事。比如说，许多聋哑人不能说话，但是却能熟练地用手势进行交流，这些手势都包含了人类语言的那些特点和复杂度。因此卡德勒夫妇认为前人研究的失败是因为黑猩猩生理上就不能说话。

因此，他们决定试着教一只黑猩猩掌握使用聋哑人的手势。他们选择的研究对象是一只名叫Washoe的雌性黑猩猩，结果这只黑猩猩成了一个能熟练使用手势的“学生”。尽管人们对Washoe学会的单词到底算不算人类语言存在争议，但毫无疑问她现在已掌握了约200个单词的词汇量。所有这一切又提出了第二个问题。如果Washoe和她的后代能够从人类那里学会复杂和任意性的词汇，那么他们是不是天生就拥有这些词汇呢？为了验证这种可能性，爱米·波利克和弗朗斯·德瓦尔对一些黑猩猩的手势和表情进行了研究。

通过面部表情和声音来发送信号在灵长类动物中很普遍。但只有大猩猩才能用手势发送信号。研究者的假设是，表情的意义是通过进化天生而成的，而手势的意义是后天学成的，至少在一定程度上是任意的。如果这个假设成立，那么特别的面部表情和声音就只会在特殊的情境下才能发生，而且在种群甚至是物种之间都是一致的。相反，同样的手势却能够在不同的情境下使用

研究结果正如研究者所料。不同种群以及不同物种之间几乎都会在相同的情境下使用一些表情（比如“不出声地露齿”、“放松地张嘴”等），但它们不会用相同的手势（比如“硬碰”、“向外伸手”等）。波利克和德瓦尔博士定期观察到，两个物种有一半手势在意义上完全不同。此外，即使是在同一物种内部，一个手势的意义可能会随情境的不同而变化，几乎就像人类说话时用不同的声调可以表示不同的意义那样。

值得我们记住的是，手势仍然是人类语言中一个至关重要的组成部分，即使是对那些没有正常听力的人而言。进化并不是一步就能达到其复杂结构的，而是一步一步累积起来的。这项研究说明了，数百万年前，当我们的猿人和人类祖先开始有意义地彼此挥手的时候，语言能力就在已获得的这种脑力特征上不断地向前发展。

考研时文阅读（20）

Several years ago, at the height of the dotcom boom, it was widely assumed that a publishing revolution, in which the printed word would be supplanted by the computer screen, was just around the corner. It wasn’t: for many, there is still little to match the joy of reading a printed book and settling down for one hour. But recently some big technology companies, including Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Yahoo, contend that the dream of bringing books online is still very much alive.

The digitizing of thousands of volumes of print is not without controversy. On Thursday, Google, the world’s most popular search engine, posted a first installment of books on Google Print. This collaborative effort between Google and several world’s leading research libraries aims to make books available to be searched and read online free of charge. Although the books included so far are not covered by copyright, the plan has attracted the rage of publishers.

Five large book firms are suing Google for violating copyright on material that it has scanned and, although out of print, is still protected by law. Google has said that it will only publish short extracts from material under copyright unless given express permission to publish more, but publishers are unconvinced. Ironically, many publishers are collaborating with Google Print Publisher, which aims to give readers an online taste of books that are commercially available. The searchable collection of extracts and book information is intended to tempt readers to buy the complete books online or in print form.

Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer, has made plans to enter the mass e-book market by selling a vast array of goods. Given that Google should impinge upon its central territory, Amazon revealed that it would introduce two new services. Amazon Pages will allow customers to search for key terms in selected books and then buy and read online whatever part they wish. Amazon Upgrade will give customers online access to books they have already purchased as hard copies. Customers are likely to have to pay five cents a page, with the bulk going to the publisher.

Microsoft has also joined the online-book trend. In October, the software giant said it would spend around $ 200m to digitize texts, starting with 150,000 that are in the public domain, to avoid legal problems. It will do so in collaboration with the Open Content Alliance. And on Thursday, coincidentally the same day as Google and Amazon announced their initiatives, Microsoft released details of a deal with the British Library, the country’s main reference library, to digitize some 25m pages; these will be made available through MSN Book Search, which will be launched next year.

篇章结构分析

本文是一篇说明文，主要论论了当今各大技术公司纷纷推出在线图书服务的计划和行动。第一段提出了电脑阅读和印刷书阅读的特点，接着用But转折引出本文的主题，即在线阅读服务。第二、三段介绍了Google的在线图书行动，并指出在线图书存在的问题，及其出版商对在线图书服务持矛盾的态度。第四、五段介绍了亚马逊公司和微软公司在线图书计划及行动。

核心词汇记忆

supplant 取代，代替 around the corner 即将到来

free of charge 免费的 out of print 不再出版/印刷

is intended to 目的在于 impinge upon 侵害，侵犯

a vast array of 一系列 in collaboration with 与…合作

it was widely assumed that 人们普遍认为

几年前，在网站建设繁荣的高峰时期，人们普遍认为，一场由电脑屏幕将取代传统印刷的出版革命即将到来。但这一革命并没有到来：对许多人来说，电脑阅读所带来的乐趣不能与安下心来坐一小时读一本印刷书的乐趣相比。但最近这些大技术公司（包括Google, Amazon, 微软和雅虎）认为，将书放到互联网的梦想依然充满了生命力。

把数以千计的印刷版书籍电子化并不是毫无争议。星期四，业界最受欢迎的搜索引擎Google在其Google Print上发布了第一期书目。Google和几个全球领先的研究性图书馆共同合作，旨在使读者能够在互联网上搜索到书籍并且能够免费阅读。虽然目前这些相关的书籍不受到版权保护，但该计划依然引起了出版商们的愤怒。

五大图书出版公司正在控告Google因扫描一些读物而侵犯了版权，尽管这些书籍已不再印刷出版，但它们仍受到法律的保护。Google声称对于那些受版权保护的书籍只会发布简短的摘录，并在取得出版商明确的同意之前不会发布更多的信息，但出版商们并不认可这一做法。有趣的是，许多出版商都在与Google Print Publisher合作，旨在为读者提供有偿的网上阅读服务。这些可以搜索到的内容摘要和书的信息意在吸引读者购买在线书籍的完整版本或是印刷版。

世界上最大的网上零售商亚马逊（Amazon）已经计划通过销售一系列的产品来进军大众电子书籍市场。由于Google将进军亚马逊的中心地带，亚马逊透露将提供两项新的服务。Amazon Pages允许用户在选定的书籍中用关键字进行查询，然后用户还可以选择购买或是在线阅读书中的任何一部分。Amazon Upgrade 在用户购买印刷版书籍后为其提供该书的电子版。用户可能需要支付每页5美分的费用，这将为出版商带来巨大的收益。

微软也加入了在线书籍这一趋势。10月，这个软件业巨头称将投资2亿美元用于书籍电子化，为了避免法律纠纷，首期计划只包括15万本属于公共领域的书籍。微软将选择与Open Content Aliance合作。碰巧的是，在Google和亚马逊发布其新计划的同一天，即星期四，微软公布了与英国主要参考书图书馆大英博物馆的合作的详细内容。该计划准备2500万页相关书籍电子化，到明年用户就可以通过MSN Book Search来使用该项服务了。

考研时文阅读（21）

本文的主题是有关美国的非法移民问题。第一段引出非法移民这一矛盾的问题，即美国人不喜欢非法移民，但又依靠非法移民来做事情。第二、三段讲述了参议院最近对非法移民问题的讨论，及可能出台的法律措施。第四段提到了移民的支持者已在美国一些大城市开始采取激烈的行动来维护自己的利益。第五段继续论述了新法案通过的困难性。末段提出足够的签证有可能解决美国非法移民这一问题。

核心词汇记忆

no less than 与… 一样 depend on 取决于，依靠

such…as… 像…一样 bring up 抚养，教育

give priority to 给…优先考虑 contribute to 有助于，导致

call for 要求，需要 regardless of 不管

 In the neighborhoods of Los Angeles, white kids occasionally shout to each other in Spanish. They learn their first words from Mexican nannies who are often working illegally, just like the maids who scrub floors and the gardeners who cut their lawns, which helps to explain why fixing America's broken immigration system is proving so difficult. Californians, no less than the residents of other states, find illegal immigration distasteful. Yet they depend on immigrants for even such intimate tasks as bringing up their children.

This week the Senate was trying again to reconcile these contradictory problems. It seemed close to the promise of legalization for the nation's roughly 12 m illegals, some 2.5 m of them in California alone. But their cases will not be considered until the border is deemed to have been made more secure and the current stockpile of legal immigrants is cleared—something that will take at least eight years. Worse, from the immigrants' point of view, they will probably have to leave the country and then implore to return, in what is known as “touch-back”.

If it becomes law, the Senate bill will transform America's immigration system. Following the lead of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Britain, America would adopt a points system that will give priority to the sort of young, employable immigrants who are most likely to contribute to the economy. Family ties, essential in deciding immigration claims since the 1960s, would become less important.

Immigrant advocates have become more militant. Last year huge, mostly orderly crowds gathered on the streets of Los Angeles, Chicago and other cities to protest against a bill, passed by the House of Representatives that would have criminalised illegal immigrants. Many carried American flags. Rallies earlier this month, by contrast, were dominated by professional protesters. In Los Angeles a small and occasionally angry crowd clashed with police. Protesters have called for another rally next month in Hollywood.

Although the pressure for reform appears overwhelming, it is not clear that a deal can be done this year. Compromise may prove more elusive in the House of Representatives. Because of the way that congressional districts are drawn, many politicians represent constituencies with large numbers of ethnic minorities or hardly any at all.

Nor is it clear that the Senate plan would bring illegal immigrants out of the shadows. Those who have American children (up to 40% of those in California) will be reluctant to “touch-back”. Much will also depend on how many visas are made available to unskilled workers. If there are too few, the supply of immigrant labour will surely continue to meet the demand for it, regardless of what the law says.

在美国洛杉矶的一些邻近地区，白人孩子偶尔会用西班牙语彼此叫嚷。他们从墨西哥奶妈那里学到了最早的词汇，而那些奶妈通常都是非法打工者，就像那些擦地板的女仆和整理草坪的园艺工一样，这就解释了为什么要修补好美国已经受到破坏的移民制度是如此艰难。加州人也和其他各州的居民一样，觉得非法移民令人生厌，然而他们却又依赖移民来承担甚至像抚育孩子这样亲密的任务。

本周参议院正试图重新解决这些令人感到矛盾的问题。现在看起来这个国家中大约1千2百万的非法移民很有希望可以合法化，其中仅在加州就有大约250万非法移民。但是只有在边境变得更加安全、以及当前的合法移民问题得到充分解决之后（这需要至少8年的时间才能解决），非法移民的问题才会得以考虑。更遭糕的是，从移民们的观点来看，他们有可能不得不先离开这个国家，然后再申请回来，这就是所谓的“touch-back”。

如果有关非法移民的问题得以立法，那么参议院的这一法案将改变美国的移民制度。美国将学加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰和英国的做法，采用一个积分制度，并优先考虑那类年轻且有工作能力的移民，因为他们更有可能为美国经济作贡献。自从上世纪60年代以来，对移民申请极为重要的家庭关系，在将来会变得不再那么重要。

移民的支持者已经采取越来越激烈的行动。去年，大量移民有组织地来到洛杉矶、芝加哥以及其它城市的大街上游行来抗议众议院通过的一项将非法移民犯罪化的法案。他们中的许多人都挥舞着美国国旗。而这个月早些时候这些游行队伍则由职业抗议者们所领导。在洛杉矶，一小部分愤怒的人群偶尔会与警察发生冲突。现在抗议者们正在号召下个月在好莱坞举行另一次集会。

尽管改革的压力显得非常大，但是目前不清楚在今年法案是否能够通过。妥协在众议院会证明更加难以令人置信。因为国会采取分区的方式，所以很多政治家代表的是有很多人口的少数民族或者根本不代表任何少数民族。

现在参议院的计划是否能够使非法移民走出阴影仍然是个谜团。许多人的孩子都是美国公民（其中高达40%的在加州），他们都不会愿意“touch-back”。这也将大大取决于有多少签证能够发放给没有特殊技能的工人。如果签证太少，那么不管法律制定了什么标准，对移民劳动力的供应还将一定继续来满足对移民劳动力的需求。

考研时文阅读（22）

Imagine waking up and finding the value of your assets has been halved. No, you are not an investor in one of those hedge funds that failed completely. With the dollar slumping to 26-year low against the pound, already-expensive London has become quite unaffordable. A coffee at Starbucks, just as unavoidable in England as it is in the United States, runs about $ 8.

The once all-powerful dollar isn’t doing a Titanic against just the pound. It is sitting at a record low against the euro and at a 30-year low against the Canadian dollar. Even the Argentina peso and Brazilian real are thriving against the dollar.

The weak dollar is a source of humiliation, for a nation’s self-esteem rests in part on the strength of its currency. It is also a potential economic problem, since a declining dollar makes imported food more expensive and exerts upward pressure on interest rates. And yet there are substantial sectors of the vast U.S. economy----from giant companies like Coca-cola to mon-and-pop restaurant operators in Miami----for which the weak dollar is most excellent news.

Many Europeans may view the U.S. as an arrogant superpower that has become hostile to foreigners. But nothing makes people think more warmly of the U.S. as a sight-seeing place than a weak dollar. Through April, the total number of visitors from abroad was up 6.8 percent from last year. Should the trend continue, the number of tourists this year will finally top the 2000 peak? Many Europeans now apparently view the U.S. the way many Americans view Mexico----as a cheap place to vacation, shop and party, all while ignoring the fact that the poorer locals can’t afford to join the merrymaking.

The money tourists spend helps decrease our chronic trade deficit. So do exports, which thanks in part to the weak dollar, soared 11 percent between May 2006 and May 2007. For the first five months of 2007, the trade deficit actually fell 7 percent from 2006.

If you own shares in large American corporations, you are a winner in the weak-dollar gamble. Last week Coca-cola’s stock bubbled to a five-year high after it reported a fantastic quarter. Foreign sales accounted for 65 percent of Coke’s beverage business. Other American companies profiting from this trend include McDonald’s and IBM.

American tourists, however, shouldn’t expect any relief soon. The dollar lost strength the way many marriages break up----slowly, and then all at once. And currencies don’t turn on a dime. So if you want to avoid the pain inflicted by the increasingly pathetic dollar, cancel that summer vacation to England and look to New England. There, the dollar is still treated with a little respect.

想象一下，当你醒来时发现自己的资产价值已经减少了一半，但你却不像那些彻底破产倒闭的对冲基金之一的投资者那样。随着美元兑换英镑的汇率创下了26年来的最低纪录，已经昂贵的伦敦消费已经变得让人无法忍受。在英国，就像在美国不可避免的一样，喝上一杯星巴克（Starbacks）咖啡的价格却高达8美元。

曾经不可一世的美元现在没有与英镑保持着坚挺的汇率。美元兑换欧元的汇率跌落至历史的最低点，美元兑换加拿大元的汇率也创下了30年的新低，甚至阿根廷比索和巴西里拉也对美元保持着坚挺的汇率。

弱势的美元是屈辱的根源。在某种程度上，一个国家的自尊取决于其货币的坚挺。弱势的美元也是一个潜在的经济问题，不断下挫的美元会使得进口商品更加昂贵，迫使利率上升。然而，对于庞大的美国经济的许多部门-----无论是可口可乐这样的商业巨头还是迈阿密家庭餐馆的经营者来说，弱势美元是最好的消息。

许多欧洲人也许将美国视为一个对外国人怀有敌意的，自负傲慢的超级大国。但是没有任何事物能比弱势美元更能让人热切地将美国视为旅游之地。整个四月，来自国外的游客总数比去年增长了6.8%。如果这一趋势持续下去，今年的游客数量会最终达到2000年时的顶峰吗？与许多美国人看待墨西哥一样-----许多欧洲人现在显然将美国视为一个旅游、购物以及聚会的便宜之所，即便他们都忽略了一个事实：贫困的美国当地人不可能与他们一起狂欢作乐。

游客们花的钱使得我们的长期贸易赤字有所减少。在2006年5月到2007年5月之间，出口额猛增了11个百分点，这也得部分归功于弱势美元的作用。2007年的头5个月，贸易赤字比2006年下降了7%。

如果你持有美国大企业的股票，你也成为了这场弱势美元投资活动的赢家。上周，在公布了一个利好业绩的季度之后，可口可乐的股价创下了5年来新高。国外销售额占到了可口可乐饮料营业额的65%。在这一趋势中获利的其他美国公司还包括麦当劳和IBM。

但是，美国的游客们短时间内可能无法松口气了，与许多破裂的婚姻一样，美元失去势头的方式----缓慢随后突然。与此同时，货币也不会立即升值。因此，如果你想避免日渐凄凉的美元所造成的痛苦，不妨取消暑期到英国的旅游，转而寻求到新英格兰度假。在那里，美元依旧可以获得一些尊重。

考研时文阅读(23

The percentage of immigrants (including those unlawfully present) in the United States has been creeping upward for years. At 12.6 percent, it is now higher than at any point since the mid-1920s.

We are not about to go back to the days when Congress openly worried about inferior races polluting America’s bloodstream. But once again we are wondering whether we have too many of the wrong sort of newcomers. Their loudest critics argue that the new wave of immigrants can’t and indeed do not want to, fit in as previous generations did.

We now know that these racist views were wrong. In time, Italians, Romanians and members of other so-called inferior races became exemplary Americans and contributed greatly, in ways too numerous to detail, to the building of this magnificent nation. There is no reason why these new immigrants should not have the same success.

Although children of Mexican immigrants do better, in terms of educational and professional attainment, than their parents, UCLA sociologist Edward Telles has found that the gains don’t continue. Indeed, the fourth generation is marginally worse off than the third. James Jackson, of the University of Michigan, has found a similar trend among black Caribbean immigrants. Telles fears that Mexican-Americans may become mired in a seemingly permanent state of poverty and underachievement. Like African-Americans, Mexican-Americans are increasingly relegated to segregated, substandard schools, and their dropout rate is the highest for any ethnic group in the country.

We have learned much about the foolish idea of excluding people on the presumption of the ethnic/racial inferiority. But what we have not yet learned is how to make the process of Americanization work for all. I am not talking about requiring people to learn English or to adopt American ways; those things happen pretty much on their own. But as arguments about immigration heat up the campaign trail, we also ought to ask some broader question about assimilation, about how to ensure that people, once outsiders, don’t forever remain marginalized within these shores.

That is a much larger question than what should happen with undocumented workers, or how best to secure the border, and it is one that affects not only newcomers but groups that have been here for generations. It will have more impact on our future than where we decide to set the admissions bar for the latest wave of would-be Americans. And it would be nice if we finally got the answer right.

美国移民（包括目前那些非法的）所占的比率数年来一直在稳步上升。今年是12.6%，这比20世纪20年代中期以来任何一年都要高。

我们不可能回到国会公开担心劣等民族会污染美国血液的那个时代了。但是我们又想知道美国非法的新来者是不是太多。呼声最高的批评者认为，新一代的移民不能也不像他们的先辈们那样融入美国社会。

我们现在知道这些种族主义者的观点是错误的。意大利人、罗马尼亚任何其它一些被称为劣等种族的人最终都成了美国人的典范，在许多方面（太多不便详述）为这个伟大国家的建设做出了巨大的贡献。没有理由怀疑这些移民不会取得同样的成功。

尽管墨西哥移民的子女在学术成绩和专业水平方面比其父母要好，但加州大学洛杉矶分校的社会学家爱德华泰利斯发现这种优势不再有了。事实上，移民子女的第四代跟第三代相比有点孙色。密歇根大学的詹姆斯克孙在来自加勒比海的黑人移民身上也发现了相似的趋势。泰利斯担心墨西哥裔美国人也许注定会步非裔黑人的后尘：大部分人也许会陷入永远贫困和无所作为的状态。像非裔美国人那样，墨西哥裔美国人也逐渐进入那种实施种族隔离的次等学校，他们的辍学率在其它种族中是最高的。

基于种族劣势的推定而把那些人排斥在外的愚蠢主意我们已经了解得多了。但我们不知道的是如何让所有的移民都融入到美国社会中去。我不是说让他们学英语或者按美国的方式做事，事实上他们自己在这样做了。但是正如关于移民的争论使得竞选活动升温那样，我们也应该在同化，以及如何确保使曾经的外人在美国不被永远边缘化等方面问一些更加概括性的问题。

与如何处理那些非法工人或如何让最好地保障边境安全相比，那是一个更大的问题，它影响到的不仅是新来的移民，也有呆在美国数代的人。它对我们未来的影响要比新一批将要成为美国人的人在那儿设置准入门槛多得多。如果我们最终能够找到答案那就更好了。

考研时文阅读（24）

In the college-admission wars, we parents are the true fighters. We’re pushing our kids to get good grades, take SAT preparatory courses and build resumes so they can get into the college of our first choice. We’ve twice been to the wars, and as I survey the battlefield, something different is happening. We see our kids’ college background as a prize demonstrating how well we’ve raised them. But we can’t acknowledge that our obsession is more about us than them. So we’ve contrived various justifications that turn out to be half-truths, prejudices or myths. It actually doesn’t matter much whether Aaron and Nicole go to Stanford.

We have a full-blown prestige panic; we worry that there won’t be enough prizes to go around. Fearful parents urge their children to apply to more schools than ever. Underlying the hysteria(歇斯底里)is the belief that scarce elite degrees must be highly valuable. Their graduates must enjoy more success because they get a better education and develop better contacts. All that is plausible---and mostly wrong. We haven’t found any convincing evidence that selectivity or prestige matters. Selective schools don’t systematically employ better instructional approaches than less selective schools. On two measures---professors’ feedback and the number of essay exams----selective schools do slightly worse.

By some studies, selective schools do enhance their graduates’ lifetime earnings. The gain is reckoned at 2—4% for every 100-point increase in a school’s average SAT scores. But even this advantage is probably a statistical fluke(偶然). A well-known study examined students who got into highly selective schools and then went elsewhere. They earned just as much as graduates form higher-status schools.

Kids count more than their colleges. Getting into Yale may signify intelligence, talent and ambition. But it’s not the only indicator and, paradoxically, its significance is declining. The reason: so many similar people go elsewhere. Getting into college isn’t life’s only competition. In the next competition---the job market and graduate school----the results may change. Old-boy networks are breaking down. Princeton economist Alan Krueger studied admissions to one top Ph.D. program. High scores on the GRE helped explain who got in; degrees of prestigious universities didn’t.

So, parents, lighten up. The stakes have been vastly exaggerated. Up to a point, we can rationalize our pushiness. America is a competitive society; our kids need to adjust to that. But too much pushiness can be destructive. The very ambition we impose on our children may get some into Harvard but may also set them up for disappointment. One study found that, other things being equal, graduates of highly selective schools experienced more job dissatisfaction. They may have been so conditioned to being on top that anything less disappoints.

在考大学这场战争中，我们这些做父母的真是名符其实的战士。我们强迫自己的孩子考出好成绩，参加SAT预备课程，写简历，以便让他们能够进入到我们首选的大学。我经历过两次这样的战争，当我回顾战场时，总会有不同的想法，我们将孩子的大学教育背景视为一个奖品，证明我们在教育子女上做得有多好。但是我们却不肯承认我们更关心的是我们自己，而不是在关心他们。因此，我们要做的各种辩解都是片面的、带有偏见或是虚构的。Aaron 和Nicole能否进入斯坦福大学实际上无关紧要。

我们充满了对名誉的恐惧；我们担心没有足够分发的奖品。战战兢兢的父母督促自己的孩子去申请比以往更多的学校。在这种歇斯底里的情绪下隐藏着一种信念，即稀缺的精英学位必然是极为可贵的。拥有该学位的毕业生必定可以享受到更多的成功，因为他们接受了更好的教育，积累了更好的人脉。所有的这些似乎都是合理的-----然而通常都是错的。我们没有找到任何有力的证据证明出类拔萃或名誉起着重要的作用。比起非精英学校，精英学校并没有系统地采用更好的教育方法。在两项标准上-----教授的反馈以及论文考试的数量上----精英学校要稍逊一筹。

一些研究表明，精英学校确实能提高他们毕业生的终生所得。一所学校中的SAT平均分每高出100分，获得的收入大约高出2--4%。但是即使这样的优势也可能是由统计上的偶然性造成的。一项知名研究对进入精英学校，随后转入其他学校的学生进行了调查。这些学生与来自精英学校毕业生获得的收入一样多。

孩子们不一定要上大学才有出息。进入耶鲁大学也许意味着聪明、才干和抱负。但这不是惟一的指标。相反的是，它的重要性正在下降，原因就是：很多条件相似的人没有上大学。上大学并不只是人生唯一的竞赛。而在另一场竞赛中----职场和研究生院中----结果也许会发生变化。老校友的关系网正在瓦解。普拉斯顿大学的经济学家Alan Krueger对一项顶级博士培养计划的录取进行了研究。研究表明，获取GRE高分能解释谁能被上大学；而享有声望的大学学位却不能。

因此，父母们放轻松些吧。这一利害关系被极大地扩大了。在一定程度上，我们能够为自己的催逼辩解。美国是一个竞争的社会。我们的孩子需要适应它。但是太多的催逼也会对孩子有着破坏性的影响。我们在孩子身上寄予的雄心壮志也许能促使他们中的一些人进入哈佛大学，但也会让他们失望。一项研究发现，在其他条件均等的情况下，精英学校的毕业生会经历更多的工作不满。他们也许习惯了不会带来一丝失望的优势地位。

考研时文阅读(25)(2010-03-27 11:29:30) Background Information

"医学之父"希波克拉底说过："让食物变成你的药，让药变成你的食物。"作为一个生于公元前五世纪的希腊人，他的智慧远远超越了他所处的时代。如今，我们知道低脂肪而富含全麦、水果和蔬菜的饮食结构能增强我们的免疫力，并能减少癌症、心脏病和中风的发病率。

但是，这些还不完全。新的证据显示食品可能会影响健康人的思考和感觉方式。如果希波克拉底今天还在世的话，他也许会回顾他吃过的最后一顿饭，解释他兴奋（或忧伤）的心情。他可能还会改变自己的饮食习惯，使自己变得更幸福或更聪明。

Can milk make you happy? Can fish make you smart?

Picture yourself lying in bed, your mind in turmoil. You toss and turn, but sleep won't come. Maybe a bedtime snack would help. What should you choose? If you think first of toaster waffles or popcorn, some experts would say you're on the right track. Foods high in complex carbohydrates---such as cereals, potatoes, pasta, crackers, or rice cakes---make many people relaxed and drowsy.

Missed that one? Try again. Suppose the weather's rotten, you forgot your homework, and your best friend's mad at you. What's good medicine when you're feeling low? A sugary cola or candy may give you a quick lift, but you'll crash just as quickly. Better choices may be Brazil nuts (for selenium), skim milk (for calcium), or a spinach salad (for folic acid). In research studies, all three of those nutrients have been shown to lift spirits and battle the blues.

Try one more. You have a math test coming up in the afternoon. You want to be sharp, but you usually feel sleepy after lunch. Is your best choice an energy fix of fries and a shake or a broiled chicken breast and low-fat yogurt? If you pick the high-fat fries and shake, you may feel sluggish and blow that test. The protein-rich chicken and yogurt are better choices. Protein foods energize, some experts say.

How does food affect mood and mind? The answer may lie in the chemistry of the brain and nervous system. Molecules called neurotransmitters are chemical messengers. They carry a nerve impulse across the gap between nerve cells. The release of neurotransmitter molecules from one neuron and their attachment to receptor sites on another keep a nerve impulse moving.

Nerve impulses carry messages from the environment to the brain, for example, the pain you feel when you stub your toe. They also carry messages in the other direction, from the brain to the muscles. That's why you back away from the obstacle that initiated the pain signal and exclaim, "Ouch!"

"Many neurotransmitters are built from the foods we eat," says neuroscientist Eric Chudler of the University of Washington. Too little or too much of a particular nutrient in the diet can affect their production, Chudler says. For example, tryptophan from foods such as yogurt, milk, bananas, and eggs is required for the production of the neurotransmitter serotonin. Phenylalanine from beets, almonds, eggs, meat, and grains goes into making the neurotransmitter dopamine.

Dozens of neurotransmitters are known; hundreds may exist. Their effects depend on their amounts and where they work in the brain. The neurotransmitter serotonin, for example, is thought to produce feelings of calmness, relaxation, and contentment. Drugs that prevent its reuptake (into the neuron that released it) are prescribed to treat depression. In at least some healthy, non-depressed people, carbohydrate foods seem to enhance serotonin production and produce similar effects. "It is the balance between different neurotransmitters that helps regulate mood," Chudler says.

Proper nutrition may also enhance brainpower. Chorine is a substance similar to the B vitamins. It's found in egg yolks, whole wheat, peanuts, milk, green peas, liver, beans, seafood, and soybeans. The brain uses it to make the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. To test the effects of chorine on memory and learning, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology gave memory tests to college students before increasing the amount of chorine in their subjects’ diets. Later, they retested. On the average, memories were better, and the students learned a list of unrelated words more easily.

核心词汇

picture v. 想象，设想; (常后接介词as) ，相当于imagine

turmoil n. 骚动，混乱（disorder=mess）

snack n. 小吃，零食；

on the right track(在合适或正确的小路或轨道上)，比喻为：做某事情是对的。

drowsy a. 昏昏欲睡的，催眠的，沉寂的；动词：drowse=doze off=sleep

rotten a. 腐烂的，腐朽的；比喻为：糟糕的，坏的

give sb. a lift=make you refreshed 给某人提神

crash v. 崩溃，撞碎，垮台

skim n. 脱脂 v. 撇去，去除；浏览，略读

spirits(用做复数时，表示“情绪，心情”的意思，比如be in high spirits情绪高涨, be in low spirits 情

绪低落，它还有“酒，酒精”的意思，如果是“精神”，就只用作单数。)

battle 战斗，斗争，用做动词，就是：与…做斗争，抑制

blues 忧虑，悲伤。

sluggish a. 懒散的，懒惰的

blow the test 直译为：吹打考试，可以理解为：考砸了。

energize v. (ize是常用的动词后缀)，能源化，提供能量

lie in=consist in 存在于，lie with（后面常接表示人的单词）

nervous system(医学词汇) 神经系统；nerves 神经

attachment 依附，附属于；爱恋，依恋(后常接介词to)；形容词短语：be attached to附属于，爱上某人；

receptor 接收器；感觉感官

impulse 冲动，萌动；脉冲

back away 后退，躲开

obstacle 障碍物，阻碍物obstacle n. 障碍，妨碍，干扰；The process is not the road itself, but

rather the attitudes and feelings people have, their caution or courage, as they encounter new

experiences and unexpected obstacles. 成长过程不是道路本身，而是当遇到新情况或意外困难时所持的

态度和情感，是慎重行事还是勇往直前。

initiate 开始，创始，启动

signal 信号；sign n. 招牌，迹象；v. 签字，签名；

exclaim 呼喊，大叫

diet 饮食；dietary 饮食的，be/go on a diet节食

depend on/upon=rely on=count on=rest on/upon=hinge on/upon(注意动词后接介词on和upon的意思是一样的)

依靠，取决于

be thought to 被认为是

relaxation n. 放松，松弛，娱乐，休闲

enhance v. 提高，增强; enhance living standards 提高生活水平

regulate=control=manipulate=supervise 控制，制约

subject 实验对象，科目，主题，主语；v. 使…受到(subject…to); 形容词短语be subject to 受到…影响

on the average 总体说来

喝牛奶能让你快乐吗？吃鱼能使你变聪明吗？

设想一下你躺在床上，脑子里却一片混乱。你辗转反侧，但总也睡不着。也许在睡觉时吃点零食会对你有帮助。你应当选择吃些什么呢？如果你的首选是威化饼或爆米花，那么一些专家就会说你选对了。富含复合碳水化合物的食品，比如麦片、土豆、面食、饼干或米糕，会使许多人感到放松和困倦。

你选错了吗？再试一次。假如天气糟糕，你忘了做家庭作业，同时你的好朋友又对你大发雷霆。在你情绪低落之时，什么对你来说是一剂良药呢？一杯甜可乐或一块糖果可能会使你情绪很快高涨，但你的情绪又会很快崩溃。也许更好的选择是吃些巴西胡桃（获得更多的硒），脱脂牛奶（获得更多的钙），或菠菜沙拉（获得更多的叶酸）。研究表明，上述三种营养素都会使人们情绪高涨，抑制忧虑。

再试一次吧。下午你将参加数学考试。你想要精力充沛，可你总是在午饭后感到昏昏欲睡。能使你精神饱满的最佳选择是薯条和奶昔，还是鸡胸肉和低脂酸奶？如果你选中了高脂肪的薯条和奶昔，你就会感到非常懒散，很可能考砸了。高蛋白的鸡肉和酸奶是较好的选择。有些专家说蛋白质食品给人们提供能量。

食物是怎样影响人的情绪和思维的呢？答案可能存在于人的大脑和神经系统的化学结构。被称为神经递质的分子是化学信使。它们（这些信使）把携带神经脉冲穿过神经细胞之间的空隙。神经递质分子从一个神经元释放后，会附着到另一个接受感官上，从而令神经脉冲不断地运动。

神经脉冲能够把周边环境的信息传输到大脑中，例如，当你脚趾被绊了一下时，你就会感到疼。神经脉冲也能从相反的方向传递信息，比如说从大脑到肌肉。这就是为什么当障碍物产生疼痛的信号时，你就会躲开障碍物，并且大喊："哎哟!"

华盛顿大学的神经科学家埃里克•查德勒说："许多神经递质是靠我们所吃的食物形成的。" 查德勒指出，过多或过少地通过饮食摄入一种营养素可以影响这些神经递质的形成。例如，来自诸如酸奶、牛奶、香蕉和鸡蛋的色氨酸会产生神经递质的血清素。来自甜菜、杏仁、鸡蛋、肉和谷物中的苯基丙胺酸会形成神经递质的多巴胺。

已知的神经递质有数十种，但实际存在的可能有几百种。它们产生的效果取决于本身的数量和它们在大脑中运转的位置。例如，神经递质血清素被认为会产生平静、放松和满足的感觉。治疗情绪低落时，大夫就开出一些能够防止它返回（即进入到释放出它的神经元中）的药。至少在一些健康和情绪不低落的人当中，碳水化合物食物似乎能够促进血清素的生成并能产生类似效应。查德勒说："不同神经递质之间的平衡帮助调节人的情绪。"

恰当的营养能提高人的脑力。胆碱是一种类似于维生素B的物质。它存在于蛋黄、全麦、花生、牛奶、菜豆、肝、蚕豆、海鲜和黄豆中。大脑利用这种物质生成神经递质的乙酰胆碱。为了检测胆碱对记忆和学习的影响，麻省理工学院的研究者们对大学生进行了记忆测验。随后，他们在试验对象的饮食中增加胆碱的量，随后又重新实验。从总体上来看，学生的记忆力有所提高，他们能够更加容易地学会一系列不相关的单词。

考研时文阅读(26)经济类文章

Background Information

美元持续走低，意味着美国经济存在缺陷，但是否就意味着地球上其他国家也将遭受劫难？答案是否定的。世界经济将从美元的逐步下滑中受益。这将有助于缓解全球流动资金失衡状况，并且通过将生产转移到美国可贸易领域，缓冲房地产泡沫破灭给美国经济带来的震荡。诚然，美元的下滑将影响欧洲及亚洲的出口，但如果这些地区的央行现有的利率走低，进而促进内需---这也正是全球经济达到重新平衡所需要的局面----那么这种影响将会被抵消。现今欧洲及亚洲的强势增长也将有助于防止美国经济的低迷蔓延至整个世界。

The Falling Dollar

THE dollar's tumble this week was attended by predictable shrinks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004.

The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market's troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling.

So, contrary to popular perceptions, America's economy has not significantly outperformed Europe's in recent years. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households' saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged.

Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors---or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies.

The main reason for the dollar's strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world's other rich country economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hypothesis. Sure, America's GDP growth has been faster than Europe's, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movement, exaggerate America's lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone.

America's growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth.

As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labor markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar.

核心词汇：

tumble v. ①（使）摔倒；② 打滚，翻腾；n. 摔跤，跌倒

shrink n. v. 萎缩，减少; [同义词]dwindle

euro 欧元

slip v. ①滑，滑倒；② 滑落，滑掉；③ 溜走；n. 疏忽，小错，口误，笔误

Step outside and you could break a leg, slipping on your doormat.［1999年阅读1］

如果你走出去，可能会滑倒在门垫上，摔伤一条腿。

trigger n. 扳机，触发器；v. 触发，引发，引起

nasty a. 肮脏的，污秽的，下流的，恶意的

housing market 住房市场

durable-goods 耐用品

in /by contrast 相比之下，on the contrary 相反；

mount v. (由名词mountain变来) 爬上去，增长，上升

pile up 堆积，囤积

assiduously 勤勉地，勤恳地

cyclical 循环的，周期性的；recycle 循环，再利用；recyclable 可回收的

illusion 幻觉，错觉；illusory 幻觉的，虚幻的；allusion 典故

outperform v. 表现好于，超额完成；胜过

over the past decade 在过去的十年里

whereas=while 而，尽管

accelerate 加速，加快

contrary to与…相反

perception 观念，理念；art perception 艺术理念；

deficit 赤字

plunge 垂直下降

fiscal=financial 财政的

budge v. 编预算

dwindle 缩小，萎缩

unsustainable 不能维持下去

consequent 随后的，后来的

imbalances 不平衡

inevitably 不可避免地

prolonged 延长的，长期的

inflexible 不灵活的

paradoxically 自相矛盾的是，似是而非的是

contemplate 考虑，沉思

to a limited extent 在一定的程度上

spot n. 地点，v. 发现

下跌的美元

本周，由于可预见的市场萎缩，美元继续保持下降的趋势。随着美元兑欧元下降到二十个月来的最低点（1.32美元兑1欧元），唯一可以算得上令人惊讶的事情是这种局面不会更快地下滑。的确，有充分的理由相信美元的下降趋势将继续下去，甚至打破2004年12月创造的1.36美元：1欧元的历史最低点。

近期关于美国经济的大量负面新闻触发了美元的持续贬值。这一周来的新数据显示，美国房市的问题对经济带来了更广泛的影响。消费者信心和耐用品订单量都比预期的下滑还要更严重。相比之下，德国商业信心创下了15年来的历史新高，同样也出现了越来越多的担忧，那就是中国或其它地方的央行几年来一直努力囤积美元，而现在却开始抛售美元。

因此，和流行的观念恰恰相反，美国经济近几年的经济整体表现并不明显强于欧洲的同期表现。自2000年以来，美国的结构性财政赤字显著提高（对经济周期对财政状况的影响进行修正后）。同时，随着美国家庭储蓄率持续下降，使得美国的流动资金赤字迅速增长。而在同一时期，欧元区的各经济体的财政状况良好，而家庭储蓄也基本保持不变。

但是，周期性因素只能片面地解释美元为什么一直强势。美元对投资者的吸引力根本上更多地基于经济结构要素---或者更准确地说，基于投资者对于美国和欧洲的经济结构差别所产生的一种错觉。

美元过去强势的主要原因是普遍存在的这种观点：近几年，相对世界其它富裕国家，美国经济的整体表现十分出众。但数据并不支持这一假设。的确，美国的国民生产总值增长速度要高于欧洲国家，但是这主要归功于美国快速增长的人口总量。生产力增长的官方数据，虽然在理论上是影响货币汇率走向的重要因素，但实际上却夸大了美国的领先地位。如果将欧美放在同一指标上进行比较，那么在过去十年里，欧美的经济表现基本上是一样的。更重要的是，最新的数据显示，当前美国的生产力增长正在放缓，而欧元区的生产力增长则在加速。

因此，美国的经济增长一直靠消费增长所拉动。而消费增长则是建立在储蓄下降和负债增多的基础上，很明显，这种形式的经济增长是无法持久的，而因此造成的经济以及财政的不平衡的后果也将不可避免的出现。随着这种消费主因的经济增长的消退，国家将可能面临长时间的经济增长放缓。

就欧洲而言，这块年迈的大陆被缺乏弹性的产品和劳工市场拖得步履艰难。但是，虽然听起来有些荒谬，这种状况相对来说可能是一种优势：它意味着欧洲人有很大的空间去改善他们的经济状况。一些欧洲国家开始慎重考虑（并在小范围内试行）他们的经济改革。如果这些改革成功，他们的经济增长将在未来显著加快。一旦投资者发现这点，他们很可能认为欧元相比美元将是更加有利的选择。

考研时文阅读(27)

统计数字显示17岁以下的青少年中一半以上的人每周至少上网发送一封电子邮件或是一条即时信息。微软和索尼两家视频游戏机巨头最近双双推出了升级版的互联网游戏服务来争夺价值300亿美元的市场。

Microsoft brings instant chat to TV screen, through games

Microsoft planned to announce today that it will make its Windows Live Messenger service available on its Xbox 360 game consoles, bringing instant messaging from the computer to the television.

The move was meant to help Microsoft stay ahead of Sony, its chief rival in the electronic games business, in delivering the richest online experience for game players. It is also an element of Microsoft's overall strategy to connect people across PCs, televisions and mobile devices like cell-phones.

More than 200 million people use Windows Live Messenger to chat with friends, family members and colleagues. Separately, more than six million Xbox 360 owners are connected to the company's Xbox Live online community, an enhancement that lets people with broadband Internet connections communicate with one another.

In the second week of May, those two worlds will begin to converge. Xbox Live members will be able to link their "gamer-tag" , the online identity they use within the Xbox community, to an existing Windows Live Messenger account. Players will then be able to chat with their instant-messaging contacts using a virtual on-screen keyboard or a USB keyboard plugged into the game machine.

Microsoft executives said they hoped to offer voice chat between Xbox and Live Messenger users later this year. "We feel this is a huge step in driving social networking further into the family room by allowing Xbox 360 users to IM directly from their couch," said John Rodman, Microsoft's group manager for the Xbox 360, in a telephone interview last week. "Now you don't have to manage two separate groups of friends online."

Microsoft and Sony are battling to dominate the high end of the console gaming market. (Nintendo, by contrast, is appealing largely to families and more budget-conscious players.) In years past, game consoles stood out from one another mostly by their game offerings. But now it appears that top game publishers like Electronic Arts will release most of their biggest games for both the Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3.

As a result, Microsoft and Sony are attempting to differentiate their game machines with other features, like film playback capabilities and online services.

Microsoft has been ahead of Sony in online console game-playing, but last month Sony announced that it was developing a new Internet service called PlayStation Home that could surpass some elements of Xbox Live. The instant-messaging feature appears to be one part of Microsoft's response.

核心词汇

available a. 可以得到的，可以用的

console v. 安慰，慰藉 n. 操纵台，控制台

instant a. 立即的，即时的，instant noodles 方便面；

move n. 行动，举措

be meant to do=be intended to 旨在

stay ahead of 领先于

rival 对手

online community 在线社区

converge v. 聚合，合并，联合

virtual a. 虚拟的，实际的

link…to… 把…链接到…

enhancement n. 增进, 增加

account n. ① 账（目，户）；② 叙述，说明；③ 价值，地位；v.（for）① 说明，解释；② 占；③（take into~）考虑；顾及

(71) Actually, it isn’t, because it assumes that there is an agreed account (n. ② ) of human rights, which is something the world does not have.［1997年翻译］

事实并非如此，因为这种问法是以人们对人的权利有共识为基础的，而这种共同认识并不存在。

Is it true that the American intellectual is rejected and considered of no account (n. ③) in his society? ［2006年翻译］

是否美国的知识分子在社会中真的被排斥并被认为毫不重要？

Kitcher is a philosopher, and this may account (v. ①), in part, for the clarity and effectiveness of his arguments.［1996年阅读5］

肯切尔是位哲学家，这也许能部分说明他的理论为何明确而有说服力。

Multinational corporations accounted (v. ②) for less than 20% of international trade in 1982.Today the figure is more than 25% and growing rapidly.［2001年阅读4］

跨国公司在1982年只占国际贸易不到20%的份额。而现在，这个数字上升到25%，并且还在迅速上升。

Dr. Myers and Dr. Worm argue that their work gives a correct baseline, which future management efforts must take into account (v. ③).［2006年阅读3］

Myers博士和 Worm博士认为他们的研究给出了正确的基准线，今后的管理工作必须要把这一基准线考虑在内。

budget n. 预算；v. 做预算

"We know that," the men from the budget (n.) office have said, "but what do you think? Is it worthwhile going on? What do you think we might expect?" [1999年阅读5］

预算部门的人说："这点我们知道，但你的意见如何？你觉得值得做下去吗？你觉得我们可以期待什么呢？"

surpass v. 超过，胜过

微软，将即时聊天服务通过游戏带入电视荧屏

今天，微软公司按计划将宣布为他的Xbox360游戏机的控制器提供窗口即时通服务，将即时信息服务从电脑带入电视。

此举措寓意在于帮助微软领先索尼--这个在电子游戏商业领域主要的竞争对手--带给游戏玩家最丰富的在线体验。这也是微软公司将通过个人电脑、电视、移动设备比如手机把人们联系起来的整体战略的一个方面。

全球有两亿多人使用windows的即时通和朋友、家人、还有同事聊天。另外，还有6百多万Xbox游戏机的拥有者和公司的Xbox Live在线社区连接起来，这又促使拥有宽带连接的用户通过网络彼此交流。

从5月的第二周开始，Windows 即时通和Xbox Live在线社区将合并在一起，Xbox Live的用户可以把他们的玩家代号和他们现有的Windows 即时通账号连接起来。这样，游戏玩家就可以通过虚拟的屏幕键盘或者是插入游戏机的USB键盘随意的聊天了。

微软的主管人员表示他们希望能在今年的下半年为Xbox玩家和即时通的用户提供语音聊天服务。微软的Xbox360小组经理John Rodman在上一周的电话采访中表示："我们认为，通过使Xbox360的玩家们躺在自家的沙发上就能获得I.M.（即时通信）服务，这样就把社会网络更进一步的带入家庭，这是巨大的进步。现在，你完全不必在线管理两组分开的朋友。"

微软和索尼为占领游戏市场的高控制终端正展开激战。（相比之下，Nintendo正在极力吸引家庭和更多的有预算头脑的玩家。）在过去的几年中，游戏的控制台程序大部分都是由生产商提供的。但是，现在，似乎像Electronic Arts这样的顶级游戏发行商把大部分的大游戏的控制台程序让渡给了Xbox360和索尼PlayStation3自己做。

因此，微软和索尼都在尝试着用其它特色的东西以使其游戏机与众不同，比如，电影回放功能以及诸多在线服务。

微软已经在在线玩游戏的控制台程序上领先索尼，但是，上个月，索尼宣布他们已经发布一种叫做PlayStation Home的新的Internet服务，此项服务能在某些功能上超过Xbox Live。而微软的即时通服务似乎是其对这一举动做出回应的一部分。

考研时文阅读(28)(2010-04-23 10:09:22) Background Information

When the cure is not worth the cost

Thanks to research by the National Institutes of Health and academic scientists during the last three decades, we now have proven treatments for depression, addiction and other mental disorders. But all too often clinicians do not use them.

Without financial incentives to provide treatments that are known to work, many mental health professionals stick with what they know, or pick up on the latest fad, or even introduce their own untested innovations--which in turn are spread by testimonials and credulous news media coverage.

Similarly, one of the most common approaches to alcoholism treatment involves having counselors and fellow alcoholics confront patients and force them to identify themselves as alcoholics. But research finds that the more a counselor confronts, the more a patient drinks and the more likely he is to drop out of treatment. And no association between accepting the label "alcoholic" and quitting drinking has been found. Counselor empathy---not confrontation-is connected with recovery.

According to a review by the Institute of Medicine in 2006, only 10.5 percent of alcoholics received "care consistent with scientific knowledge" of the disorder; similarly, 43 percent of children in psychiatric hospitals are given antipsychotic medication despite not suffering from psychosis. Tough boot camps for troubled teenagers--which have been proven to be ineffective and potentially harmful--thrive, while "multi-systemic family therapy," which effectively treats teenagers at home, is available only through the juvenile justice system.

Take the well-known approach featured on the cable TV reality show "Intervention" aimed at getting addicts and alcoholics into treatment. Here, the family and sometimes the employer gather with a counselor, confront the addict and threaten to shun him or fire him if he doesn't enter a rehabilitation center. A 1999 study compared this style of intervention ---which can backfire and lead to broken families---to a less confrontational approach known as "community reinforcement and family training," which is aimed at helping the family nurture the addict's own motivation.

More than twice as many families succeeded in getting their loved ones into treatment ( 64 percent) with the gentler approach than with standard intervention (30 percent). But no reality shows push the less dramatic method, and it is difficult to find clinicians who use it.

If we want to provide genuine help for the 33 million Americans with mental health and drug problems, giving more no-strings-attached money to providers via insurance mandates is not the answer. It is dangerous to blindly bolster useless and even harmful treatments while failing to support proven therapies. Coverage must be tied to outcomes and evidence. And payment should be dependent, at least in part, on health improvements, not just services received. We need parity in evidence-based treatment, not just in coverage.

治疗与花费之间的不等

由于国家健康研究所和学院科学家们在过去三十年所作的研究，现在我们拥有可以治疗抑郁症、上瘾症以及一些其他精神失常症状的方法。但很多时候临床医师却不使用这些方法。

没有金钱动力让他们提供有明确疗效的治疗方法，很多精神健康职业工作者坚持使用他们所知道的方法，或采用最新潮的方法，甚至使用未经检验过的自创方法，而这些方法却通过证明信和误导人的新闻媒体报道流传开来。

同样的，治疗酗酒最为普遍的一种方法就是让咨询师和其他酗酒者与病人面对面，强迫这些病人承认自己是酗酒者。但研究表明越是和咨询师接触，病人反而饮酒量越多，而且退出治疗的可能性越大。而且并未发现接受酗酒者的标签与戒酒有任何联系。咨询师的同情，而非与其接触，和恢复正常有关联。

根据一份2006年医药协会的评论，只有10.5%的酗酒者得到结合精神失调相关的科学知识的照顾和治疗。同样，精神病院中43%的儿童获得不受精神病困扰的治疗方法。严厉的青少年劳教营，已证明其对帮助问题青少年没有疗效甚至有潜在危险，却时兴起来；相反，有效的在家中治疗青少年的"多系统家庭治疗法" 却只能在青少年司法体系中使用。

以有线电视真实现场秀"intervention（干预）"中提供的著名方法来说，这个方法是为了让瘾君子和酗酒者接受治疗。节目中，家人有时是公司雇主和咨询师一起面对上瘾者，威胁说如果他不参加康复治疗中心就赶走或开除他。一项1999年的调查把这种干预方法和比较温和的名为"社区强化和家庭训练"的方法进行比较，后者是为了帮助家庭来培养上瘾者自己戒掉不良嗜好的动力，而前者可能会后院起火从而导致家庭破裂。

64%的家庭采用温和方法成功使得他们所爱的家人接受治疗，这是采用常规干预方法成功的家庭（30%）的两倍多。但没有任何真实秀节目推广这种温和的方法，也很难找到临床医师使用这种方法。

如果我们想为三千三百万有精神困扰和毒品困扰的美国人提供真正帮助的话，通过保险授权给予更多的金钱并非是答案。盲目的改善无用甚至有害的治疗方法却无法推广有效的治疗方法是很危险的。保险条款应与结果和证据紧密联系。保险支付至少有一部分应当依据治疗效果而不仅是接受的服务来付出。我们需要与所付报酬等价的治疗，这种治疗是建立在医学证据之上而不仅仅是保险条款。

考研时文阅读（29）不受欢迎的人适合做企业家

You’re Awkward, Nerdy, No One Likes You? Great! You’re Poised to Become An Entrepreneur.

The tabloids are abuzz about a new study suggesting that Facebook can exacerbate the negative self-conceptions of kids troubled by low self-esteem. If you have 18 friends and see your neighbor has 1,118, the study says your sense of not measuring-up will get worse.

What enrages me is the take-away from this study: Something is wrong with Facebook because it exposes the fact that some folks are more popular than others. If this sort of blame-game insanity –with its concomitant regression to the mean mentality— is not outlawed, our nation will never again flex its entrepreneurial muscle. You cannot level the playing field of life by legislation, nor turn every putz that wants to play football into Payton Manning by giving Pop Warner league players “participation trophies.”

In The Social Network, writer Aaron Sorkin suggests that a central drive prompting Mark Zuckerberg to develop Facebook was to “get women” he couldn’t connect with the normal way— through face-to-face interaction. Zuckerberg denies this –he claims he wanted to “improve the world and make it a more transparent place”— but I buy Sorkin’s view. I know of countless former misfits (e.g. Steven Spielberg) who instead of bemoaning their fates channeled their angst into a creative drive. Some, like Spielberg, became artists. Others became world-class entrepreneurs like Bill Gates. The drive is the same and the product is too if you realize that artists and entrepreneurs break molds and improve the existing modus operandi in their fields of endeavor.

If you are a parent worrying about your unpopular child, or an unpopular careerist under the age of 40 looking to get out of a corporate rut, here are a few suggestions regarding how you can go from holding pity-parties to contacting Goldman Sachs about an IPO in a matter of a few short years: You’re unpopular; so are game-changing ideas. If you are sick and tired of being an outcast, embrace the outcast status and recognize that whatever breaks the mold is first, untried, and secondly, unpopular, before it takes hold. Spielberg was loath to make ET because popular opinion was that movies about kids didn’t sell. His did, and today kid-flicks are almost as popular as chick-flicks.

If you are ready to change what you are, find a project you believe in and will invest your soul in. Then ask some gray beard how many of the kids who were super-popular in high school “made it” as adults. Being popular is de-motivating; stuff comes to you; you never develop the capacity to struggle and persevere. You’re lucky if you’re a nerd provided you use that status to fight for what you want.

What do you have to lose by taking a risk? It goes without saying that to be an entrepreneur you have to take risks (calculated ones are best), or at least not be rise-averse. Guess what? You are poised, irrespective of your psychological temperament, to do just that if you look in the mirror and assess your status honestly. Your social life sucks; how much worse will it get if you go out on a limb in pursuit of something you believe in? You may fail, but in who’s eyes? Remember, the in-crowd has already made the a priori assessment that you are a loser. That won’t change if you fail, so tell yourself you have only one way to go and that’s up.

It’s easier for you to persevere than for someone who is popular. Take pity on folks in the in-crowd; they have no time for themselves. There are countless parties, events, and gatherings to go to, whereas you have nothing but free time to do with as you please. If you commit yourself to investing this time in overcoming the difficulties inherent in every start-up enterprise, then take pains to never stop moving toward your goals, you are better suited to building a business than the guy with 4,000 “friends” on Facebook. That jerk spends hours indicating how much he likes friends’ posts, pictures, and other aspects of their site.

If you suffer emotional pain over lacking friends, this is a sign of social sensitivity. The most important attitude alignment you need to make before breaking out of your unpopular status involves seeing the pain you are in as proof that you are a sensitive person with the potential to change from geek to good-guy. What this new study about Facebook depression fails to note (at least in wire service stories I’ve read) is that many unpopular kids are not merely awkward souls who don’t fit in but, rather, misfits who are actively rejected. If you ventured into social networking and feel distressed that you did not make it big, and if you want to convert your life from couch potato to life participant, you have the sensitivity that hostile outcasts and incipient sociopaths lack: You care.

Your sensitivity can be a huge advantage if you use it as the basis for change. Tell yourself you want to study the popular folks and discern what they like. In B-Schools that’s called a market analysis. Keep doing this until you can see a need that goes wanting among the cool kids, then fill it. Whether Zuckerberg was driven to create Facebook to get dates or make the world more connected, he hit upon a universal need.

Popular folks, as I noted, don’t sense social needs as acutely as you do. They, like hot VCs, hot movie and TV producers, or hot women, have more suitors than they can handle. Use your loneliness in ways those folks cannot; become a need-satisfying entrepreneur.

Jack Kerouac, the iconoclastic novelist and poet whose writings helped inspired the Hippie movement (my “thing” back in the day), once remarked, “Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.” Bottom line: If you are not now popular, consider yourself poised to accomplish great things.

一项新的研究正被各个小报议论纷纷，该研究称Facebook可能恶化那些受低自尊（low self-esteem）困扰的孩子对自我的感知。这项研究称，如果你有18个好友却看到自己的友邻有1,118个好友，你意识到自己没有达标就会让情况变得更糟。

这项研究使我愤怒的地方在于它所传达的观点：Facebook有问题，因为它暴露出一些人比另外一些人更受欢迎的事实。如果这种有点类似于指责游戏的疯狂愚蠢劲儿——以及随之而来的向狭隘思想的倒退——没有被禁止，我们的国家将永远不能再施展出创业的实力。你无法通过法律来维持生活竞技场的公平，也无法通过给华纳青年联盟（Pop Warner）的球员颁发“参与奖”就让所有想玩橄榄球的傻瓜都变成佩顿·曼宁（Payton Manning）。

在电影《社交网络》（The Social Network）中，编剧阿伦·索尔金（Aaron Sorkin）暗示，马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）开发Facebook的主要驱动力是“泡妞”，因为他无法以正常的方式——面对面的互动——来和她们接触。扎克伯格否认了这一点——他声称自己想要“改善世界，使之变成更透明的交流空间”——但我认可索尔金的看法。我知道有无数曾经的格格不入者（如史蒂芬·斯皮尔伯格），他们没有哀叹自己的命运，而是将自己的焦虑转化成创新的动力。有些人，像斯皮尔伯格，成了艺术家，其他的则成了比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）这样世界级的企业家。如果你意识到这些艺术家和企业家打破陈规，改善自身领域现存模式的努力，你就会明白他们的驱动力和成果都是一样的。

如果你是一个在为自己不受欢迎的孩子担心的家长，或者你是一个40岁以下不受待见的“野心家”——寻思着要脱离公司的轨道，这里有一些建议，能令你摆脱顾影自怜的状态，在短短几年的时间内，摇身变成和高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）商讨上市事宜的大人物：你不受欢迎，那些改变游戏规则的构想也一样。如果你对做一个弃儿感到不爽和厌倦，那么你就应该拥抱这种状态，并认识到那些打破陈规的事物首先都是无人尝试过的，其次它们在占据主流前都是不受欢迎的。斯皮尔伯格并不愿拍摄《外星人》（ET）这部电影，因为流行的看法认为关于孩子的电影卖不出高票房。但他的电影成功了，如今儿童电影几乎就跟女性电影一样受欢迎。

如果你准备改变自己，找到一个自己有信心的项目，并愿意将精力倾注其中。然后，你可以问一问那些老人家，有多少高中时的风云人物成年后也“做到了”。成为受欢迎的人物让人不思进取，事情总是不断来到眼前，你永远也不能培养出奋斗和坚持不懈的能力。而如果你是一个不受欢迎的人，你就很幸运，因为你可以利用这种状态来为自己想要的东西而努力。

冒险会让你失去什么？毋庸赘言，要成为一个企业家，你就必须承担风险（预料当中的风险最好不过），或者至少不应该厌恶风险。你猜怎么着？如果你看看镜中的自己，老老实实评估一下自己的状况，你就会随时准备好去冒险，而顾不上自己的性情是怎样。你的社交生活糟透了，如果你冒险去追求一些自己所信仰的事物，情况还能变得有多糟呢？你可能失败，但谁又会看在眼里？记住，那些圈内人已经预先把你设定为一个失败者。如果你失败了，这种评价也不会改变，那么告诉自己，你只有一条路可走，一条向上的路。

你比那些受欢迎的人更容易坚持下来。为那些“交际花”感到惋惜吧，他们没有私人的时间，他们有无数的派对、事件和集会要去赴宴，而这些你都没有，只有空闲的时间去做自己喜欢的事。如果你致力于把这些时间用来克服每个初创企业所遇到的困难，然后殚精竭虑地向着自己的目标进发，你就比那个在Facebook上有着4,000名好友的家伙更适合创办一家企业，那个笨蛋整日都在诉说自己有多喜欢朋友们的帖子、图片或网页上的其他内容。

如果你因为缺少朋友而感到痛苦，那么这就是有社交需求的迹象。在你改变自己不受欢迎的身份之前，你所需做的最重要的心态校正包括：察觉到自己是因为缺少朋友而感到痛苦，这是一个人敏感、有可能从一个怪人变成正常人的证据。这项关于Facebook抑郁症的新研究所没有注意到的是（至少在我读过的媒体报道中），许多不受欢迎的孩子并不只是个性古怪不合群，也有相当一部分人是被拒绝而显得格格不入。如果你涉足社交网络对自己没有广交好友感到苦恼，如果你想从生活的旁观者变成参与者，那么你就拥有那些怀有敌意的被驱逐者和初期反社会人格者所缺乏的敏感：你还在乎一些事。

如果你将这种敏感作为改变的基础，那么它有可能成为一个巨大的优势。告诉自己，你想向那些受欢迎的人学习，弄清他们所喜欢的事物。在商学院里，这被称为市场分析。坚持做下去，直到你发现了那些受欢迎的人所亟需的东西，然后满足他们的需求。不管扎克伯格创建Facebook是想泡妞还是想让世界的联系变得更紧密，他找到了一种普遍的需求。

正如我所指出的，受欢迎的人并不像你那样感受到社交需求的迫切，他们——像炙手可热的风险投资者、热门电影和电视节目制作人，或者热辣美女——拥有的追求者多得自己都应付不过来。善用你的孤独——这是那些人无法做到的——成为一位满足他人需求的创业者。

杰克·凯鲁亚克（Jack Kerouac）这位打破旧习的小说家和诗人——他的作品曾帮助推动了嬉皮士运动（我难忘的过去）——曾说过，“那些随波逐流、追寻时尚、人云亦云的人做不成大事。”结论：如果你现在不受欢迎，考虑一下去干一番大事业吧。

考研时文阅读(30)：Dan Abrams Explains Why “Women Are Better”

A new book promoting women as the superior sex comes from an unlikely source. The so-called “terminally single” and “steely eyed” Dan Abrams, founder of popular sites Mediate and Geekosystem, recently penned the validating, if hyperbolic, tome Man Down: Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt That Women Are Better Cops, Drivers, Gamblers, Spies, World Leaders, Beer Tasters, Hedge Fund Managers, and Just About Everything Else.

The ABC News legal analyst said he approached the book like a lawyer. After reading an article that claimed female superiority in certain jobs, he did some digging. Soon, he’d found so many studies asserting that women were better—better at tolerating pain, better with hammers, better students, better investors, better at appreciating a good joke—that Abrams realized he had a clear case that women were better at “just about everything.”

I asked a few ladies for their reaction. Well I knew that, responded most with a smile. The men that I approached, however, did a collective eye roll. One even questioned my motives. After all, I’ve reported on a host of recent books and articles that paint modern men as, well, losers. A few recent titles: The End of Men, Is There Anything Good About Men?, Manning Up: How The Rise of Women Turned Men Into Boys.

I called up the ever smooth, new-media industrialist to ask: What’s with all the man hate?

“I don’t view this as a cause book,” said Abrams. “This is not to suggest that men are unnecessary, but women are passing men in a lot of important areas.”

He’s the first to point out that the guys are not so pleased. Many have called him “sexist” and a “sell out.” One aptly named boys club, Men Are Angry Now, petitioned to get Abrams fired when he announced the book on NBC.

Although he did not demand a “particularly rigorous scientific method” or require top-tier double blind studies, Abrams says he’s found clear evidence to “bash some of the stereotypes” against women. Most surprising to him was the finding that women were better hedge fund managers, despite that the field is 97% male.

According to data by Hedge Fund Research, female managers produced average annual returns of 9% from 2000 to 2009, compared to male manager’s 5.82%–nearly doubling men’s performance. Moreover, Abrams uncovered data reported by BusinessWeek that funds run by women lost half as much as those run by men during the recession.

“To think that those 3% of female managers are better than the 97% of male managers is astonishing,” Abrams said. “There’s no question that women are more risk averse, thoughtful and deliberative.”

That pattern of thoughtfulness likely contributes to other findings, he said, like women being safer drivers, better students and more likely to vote.

Abrams noted that the book was meant to provide a mix of both “serious” and “frivolous” findings. A few are downright questionable. Women are better competitive eaters? He must not watch Man Vs. Food. Women are better sleepers? Not with a newborn in the house. Women get ready faster than men? That is just silly.

Clearly, this must be a ploy to pick up women. No, he announced on The View that he had a girlfriend.

Doesn’t this hurt your manhood? “I am comfortable in my own skin,” said Abrams.

“Are men better at anything?” I asked.

“While women are better drivers, men are better parkers,” Abrams said. That makes sense somehow.

“Men are better at reading maps,” he continued. “Men have better long distance vision. Men treat their friends better. Men are better dieters.” Of course. That’s why I’ve felt so fat today.

Abrams believes women are out-performing men in many realms, like education, because they have long been the underdog. “When you’re behind, you have to work harder,” he said. “Women have had to work harder to get ahead, and now they are in a place where they are surpassing men.”

So what’s going on with our men? I asked, “Should I be worried?” “They earn more money for the same work, are the majority of business leaders and hold most of the power,” Abrams said. “Let’s not feel sorry for the men just yet.”

有本新书宣称女性比男性更加优秀，而这本书的作者实在出乎人们意料。他就是“永远单身”、“目光如炬”的丹·艾布拉姆斯（Dan Abrams）。这位流行网站Mediate和Geekosystem的创始人最近撰写了一本言之凿凿（如果不算夸张的话）的厚书，名为《男性衰落：铁证如山，女性是更好的警察、司机、赌徒、间谍、世界领袖、品酒行家、对冲基金经理和几乎其他所有职业》（Man Down: Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt That Women Are Better Cops, Drivers, Gamblers, Spies, World Leaders, Beer Tasters, Hedge Fund Managers, and Just About Everything Else）。

这位ABC新闻的法律分析师表示，他是从一位律师的角度来撰写这本书的。在读到一篇声称女性在某些岗位上比男性更加优秀的文章后，他便进行了一番调查。他很快发现，许多研究都显示女性比男性更加优秀。比如，她们更能忍受疼痛，更能承受压力，是更好的学生和投资者，也更善于领会有趣的笑话。于是艾布拉姆斯意识到，他有了明显的论据来证明女性在“几乎所有事情上”都比男性更加出色。

我曾问几位女士对这本书有何看法，她们大都报以微笑。而我所问过的男士全都翻白眼，有人甚至质疑我的动机。毕竟，我已经报道过近期许多把现代男性描绘成失败者的文章和书籍，标题包括《男人的末日》（The End of Men）、《男人一无是处？》(Is There Anything Good About Men?)、《拿出男子汉模样：女性崛起如何让男人变成男孩》(Manning Up: How The Rise of Women Turned Men Into Boys)等。

我给这位圆滑的新媒体实业家打电话，问他：“男人的这些不满是怎么一回事？” “我并不把这本书看成是诉讼登记册，”艾布拉姆斯说，“这本书并不是说男性多余，而是说女性在许多重要领域里正在赶超男性。”

艾布拉姆斯是第一个指出男性并不是那么优秀的人。很多人称他是“性别主义者”和“叛徒”。当他在NBC电视台上介绍这本新书时，一个名为“男人们现在很生气”的男性俱乐部要求炒他鱿鱼。

虽然艾布拉姆斯没有采取“特别严格的科学方法”，也没有进行最高层级的双盲研究，但他表示，他已经找到了明显的证据来“批驳某些针对女性的陈词滥调”。其中最令他吃惊的证据是，尽管97%的对冲基金经理都是男性，但女性在这个职位上的表现更为出色。

对冲基金调查公司（Hedge Fund Research）的数据显示，在2000年至2009年，女性对冲基金经理的平均年回报率为9%，比男性的5.82%几乎高出一倍。此外，艾布拉姆斯还发现《商业周刊》的数据显示，由女性管理的基金在经济衰退期间的倒闭数量只有男性的一半。

“在基金经理中占3%的女性比占97%的男性更加出色，一想到这一点就令人吃惊不已。”艾布拉姆斯说，“相比男性，女性无疑更加倾向于规避风险，思考也更加周到细致。”

艾布拉姆斯表示，这种思维模式或许也能解释其他的调查发现，比如女性驾车更安全、学习更好、投票意愿更强等。

艾布拉姆斯指出，这本书旨在向人们同时提供“严肃”和“轻浮”的各种调查发现。其中有些调查结果相当可疑。女性吃得更多？他肯定没看过《男人与食物》这档节目。女性睡得更好？家里有新生儿的时候就不可能。女性的准备时间更短？这纯属胡说。

显然，这肯定是吸引女性的花招了。不，艾布拉姆斯在《观点》这个节目中已经宣布自己有女朋友了。

这难道没有伤害到你的男性自尊吗？“我自己完全不觉得。”艾布拉姆斯说。 “男性还能在什么事情上比较出色呢？” 我又问。“女性是更好的司机，而男性是更好的停车者。”艾布拉姆斯说。这句话有道理。

“男性更善于看地图。”他继续说道，“男性有更好的长远眼光，对朋友也更好，同时还是更好的节食者。”这话没错，难怪我现在觉得自己很胖。

艾布拉姆斯认为，女性在教育等许多领域都胜过了男性，因为她们长期以来都处于弱势地位。“当你落后的时候，你就必须更加努力。”他说，“女性不得不更加努力才能出人头地。如今，她们正在赶超男性。”

那么，男人们怎么办？我问道：“这个问题值得担心吗？” “在同样的职位上男性挣得更多，而且绝大多数企业领导都是男性，大部分权力也都掌握在男性的手中。”艾布拉姆斯说，“所以，现在不必为男人们感到难过。”

考研时文阅读（31）How To Ace Your Performance Review

How To Ace Your Performance Review怎样在绩效考评中拿高分

UCLA's Samuel Culbert wants to banish performance reviews, but they remain a fact of life at many companies.

Three years ago, Samuel Culbert, a UCLA professor and management consultant, published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled, “Get Rid of the Performance Review!” The piece got a huge response from readers, and he went on to write a book with the same title, which came out last year.

The performance review “destroys morale, kills teamwork and hurts the bottom line,” Culbert wrote in the Journal. “A one-side-accountable, boss-administered review is little more than a dysfunctional pretense.” A Ph. D. in clinical psychology, he hates performance reviews, if anything, even more today.

Given that the performance review is a fact of life for most workers at big companies, does Culbert have any suggestions for getting through the process with maximum gain and minimum pain? “You’ve got to be calculating,” he says. “Don’t get emotional.” Remember that subjective forces are at play.

Paul Falcone, vice president of human resources at Time Warner Cable in Los Angeles and author of 2600 Phrases for Effective Performance Reviews, has more concrete advice to offer. First, Falcone says, you must take the initiative. Do your own self-examination in advance, he advises. Some companies ask their employees to fill out self-review forms. If yours doesn’t, put yourself through the paces anyway. “Otherwise it’s like being a turkey on Thanksgiving,” Falcone says. “You put your head down on the block and wait for your boss to lower the ax.”

He recommends starting the process two months before your review. Write a memo detailing your achievements. What have you done to increase revenues, to decrease expenses, to save time, to reinvent your department in light of the company’s changing needs? Make sure you track the entire year since your last review. “Bosses don’t remember what you did 11 months ago,” Falcone points out.

Additionally, Falcone recommends you spell out what support you need from your boss. Also, detail your goals for the next year. What sort of measurable outcomes are you shooting for? This will help you in your review a year from now.

In your self-review, and in the performance review itself, speak plainly. “Talk English, for Pete’s sake,” Falcone says. Do not say anything like, “We leveraged strategic resources.” Speak in specifics, not generalities.

If you can, Falcone advises, frame the discussion yourself, casting your boss in the role of gentle coach and mentor rather than disciplinarian. “A lot of people go into the review asking, ‘How did I do, boss?’” he observes. “If you do it right, you’ve done the boss’ job for her, with respect and humility.”

What if the boss levels some unexpected criticism? Handle it calmly and openly, Falcone recommends. Apologize, but try not to take it personally. He suggests saying something that includes the word perception, as in, “If your perception is that I’m not doing this as well as you expected, then I take responsibility for that, and I’m sorry.” He calls such a response “business maturity.”

Own up to mistakes when you make them, he advises. Then thank your boss for the feedback. 塞缪尔教授想要取消绩效考评，但在很多公司，这可不是能轻易改变的东西。

三年前，加州大学洛杉矶分校教授兼管理顾问塞缪尔·卡伯特（Samuel Cullbert）在《华尔街日报》发表专栏文章，题为《让绩效考评见鬼去！》的文章在读者中引起巨大反响。去年，塞缪尔教授出版了一本同名书籍。

他在《华尔街日报》上的文章中写道，绩效考评“降低工作士气，破坏团队合作，损害企业利润。由老板主持的单方面绩效考评，就跟一场扭曲而矫情的演出差不多。”作为一名临床心理学博士，塞缪尔教授现在对于绩效考评的愤愤之情甚至更加强烈了。

然而对多数大公司员工来说，绩效考评是无法逃避的。对此，塞缪尔教授有何建议可以帮助员工获得最好的绩效评分，同时承受较少的折磨呢？“那你得要深思熟虑，”他说，“可不能感情用事。”要记住，在绩效考评中，你的主观态度是决定因素。

洛杉矶时代华纳在线人力资源副总监保罗·法尔肯（Paul Falcone）是《绩效考评实用2,600句》一书的作者，对此他给出了更为具体的建议。首先，法尔肯说，你必须掌握主动。他建议员工事先做好自我考评。有些公司会要求员工填写自评表格。如果你的公司不要求，那么你就自觉去做。“不然的话你就好比一只待宰羔羊，”法尔肯说，“乖乖把头垫在砧板上等着老板来砍。”

法尔肯建议在正式考评前两个月开始进行自评。把你做出的成绩以备忘录的形式记录下来。比如你做了某某事，增加了公司的收入，减少了支出，节省了工时，根据公司不断变化的需求改组了你的部门等等。记得要把上次考核至今一整年来的成果都记下来。法尔肯指出：“老板可不记得你11个月前都干了什么。”

此外，法尔肯还建议员工具体说明自己希望从老板处获得什么支持。员工并应当详细制定来年目标，说明自己要达成何种可衡量的结果。这些都将帮助你在一年后的考评中获得好成绩。

无论在你的自评还是正式考评中，请用明确直白的语言表达。“拜托大家在考核时不要讲些让人听不懂的话。”法尔肯建议。比如别说什么“我们调配了各种战略资源”之类的话。要讲得具体，切忌泛泛而谈。

法尔肯表示，如果可能的话，可以把考核谈话自己排演一遍。把你的老板想象成一个慈祥的教练和导师，而不是一个纪检委员。他在观察中发现：“很多人在考核时都会问：‘老板，我这一年干得怎么样？’如果你本着谦恭的态度正确对待考核，那你就是替老板分了忧。”

假如老板对你提出一些出乎你意料的批评呢？法尔肯的意见是，你要平静而坦率地处理。你可以向老板道歉，但尽量不要把责任大包大揽。他建议在回应中使用“您认为”一词。比如“如果您认为我的表现没能达到您的预期，我会承担责任。我很抱歉。”他认为这种表述是“职业上成熟”的表现。

如果你确实存在老板反映的问题，那么就承认错误，感谢老板及时给你反馈。

考研时文阅读(32)一项新的医学比较研究

Many people assume that medicine has accumulated much knowledge about how best to treat patients and improving care is just a matter of applying what we know. If only it were so.

This week’s New England Journal of Medicine has an article that serves as another stark reminder of the extent of our ignorance and the challenges in filling the gaps. The article presents a study that compares different ways of using water pills, or diuretics, for the treatment of patients hospitalized with heart failure.

So what is notable here? First, heart failure is the most common cause of hospitalization among older individuals, accounting for more than a million a year. Doctors have no paucity of experience with these patients. Water pills are not new drugs, having been around for more than 50 years. The early diuretics replaced a brutal way to eliminate excess fluid through the use of tubes that were placed below the skin of swollen, edematous tissue to relieve the pressure. Before that bloodletting and leaches were used. The introduction of diuretics now provided a means to flush extra fluid out through the kidneys. The early diuretics had substantial side effects, the later ones were better tolerated. The diuretics most often used for heart failure, furosemide (Lasix) was introduced in 1966.

Fast forward to 2011, 45 years later, you would think that medical science would have figured out how best to use furosemide – what doses to give – how to best administer it. However, you would be wrong. This study was designed to determine if we should be treating patients with a high dose of the drug or a low dose – or whether we should administer it in periodic doses or through a continuous intravenous infusion. It turns out that doctors have been using it according to their own habits and have not had any substantial studies to direct them.

This gap in knowledge is what comparative effectiveness studies are intended to address. Amid all the noise about health care, the idea of comparative effectiveness studies – that is the direct comparison of two or more strategies – was framed as an effort to reduce cost. It would be a nice dividend if these studies identified wasteful practices that could be eliminated, but our dire need is to illuminate the many areas of darkness that still exist in medicine, where we are practicing based on our intuition and knowledge of basic biology – but with little understanding of the benefits and risks of alternative approaches. And we are discovering more and more that what we might anticipate from our knowledge of basic science does not always pan out when we study what happens to patients.

With advances in technology and the potential of research networks we need to commit to research that will reveal the trade-offs of different strategies and inform the choices of individuals. How can good decisions be made when the critical information about how strategies compare is missing?

We need to learn from experience. What is striking in this example is that more than a million hospitalizations of patients with heart failure occur annually and yet we have not systematically learned from the varied approaches to treatment that are being pursued every day. We are wasteful of the lessons that could be extracted from our experience–and there is much power in that knowledge if it can be harnessed.

So what was the result of the study? Unfortunately it was a rather small study that included only about 300 patients, limiting what it could investigate. It was reported that there were no discernable differences between the high dose regimen and the low dose regimen–or between the periodic dosing and the continuous dosing. Doctors and patients who want to know more about whether certain types of patients can benefit from one strategy over another–or whether longer-term outcomes were different – will have to wait for the next study.

In the meantime the challenge is to determine how to do more of these studies – and do them faster and cheaper so that the decisions made in darkness become more infrequent. And it does not take 50 years after the introduction of a drug to determine how it is best employed in practice.

许多人认为，医学界已经积累了有关如何治疗病人的足够知识，且改善疗效不过是将我们所知道的东西化为行动而已。如果真是这样就好了。

本周，《新英格兰医学期刊》（New England Journal of Medicine）刊登了一篇文章，再次对我们的无知程度和填补知识空白所面临的挑战敲响了警钟。这篇文章援引了一项研究，该研究对心力衰竭而入院病人采用利尿剂治疗的各种不同方法进行了比较。

这里值得关注的地方是什么呢？首先，心力衰竭是老年人入院最常见的病因，每年约有100多万例。医生对此类病患的经验并不算少。利尿剂并非新药，诞生已有50多年。早期的利尿剂代替了将导管埋于肿胀组织皮肤之下以排除体内多余水分、减轻压力的野蛮方式。在这之前采用的则是放血和水蛭疗法。现代利尿剂的引入提供了一种通过肾脏排除多余液体的方法。早期的利尿剂存在大量副作用，现代利尿剂的副作用则在可接受的范围之内。最经常被用于治疗心力衰竭的利尿剂速尿灵（furosemide）于1966年诞生。

时间很快到了45年之后的2011年，你可能会认为医药科学已经发现了如何使用速尿灵的最佳方法——如何最好地掌控它。然而，你错了。这项研究旨在找出我们在治疗病人时是应该使用高剂量还是低剂量——或者我们应该定期定剂量地使用还是通过持续静脉注射。结果是，医生们都只是按照自己的习惯进行选择，目前也没有任何实质性的研究来指导他们用药。

这一知识的空白正是比较效用研究（comparative effectiveness study）想要着手解决的问题。在所有有关医疗保健的声音中，比较效用研究理念——即两种或以上治疗策略的直接比较——被认为是降低成本的一种办法。如果这些研究发现了不经济的治疗方法，并将之淘汰，那将会是不错的回报，然而我们迫切需求的却是照亮医疗界尚处于黑暗之中的许多领域，在这些领域中，我们仅凭自己的直觉和基本生物学知识进行操作——而对于各种可能疗法的益处和风险知之甚少。我们正越来越发现，我们期望从基础理论上所得到的与我们的临床研究结果并不常常是相吻合的。

随着技术的进步和研究网络潜能的上升，我们需要致力于那些能够揭示不同疗法如何进行权衡取舍、让病人拥有选择权的研究。要是有关如何进行治疗方案比较的关键信息缺失，又如何能够做出好的选择呢？

我们必须从经验中学习。上述例子中令人吃惊的一点是，每年因心力衰竭而入院的病患超过100万例，而我们却尚未系统性地从每天使用的各种治疗方法中学习到什么。我们浪费了这些原本可能从中提炼出精华的宝贵经验——如果善加利用，这些知识的力量可能会非常巨大。

那么研究的结果是什么呢？不幸的是，这不过是一项相当小规模的研究，仅有300名病人参与，对可调查的内容产生了一定的限制。据称，高剂量方案和低剂量方案之间并没有显著区别——定期给药和持续给药也没有发现显著区别。那些想要知道某一类型的病人是否能从某个治疗方案中获益更多——或者长期结果会否不同的医生和病患不得不等待下一场研究了。

与此同时，我们现在所面临的挑战是：如何进行更多的此类研究以及如何以更快的速度和更低的成本进行研究，以减少“两眼一抹黑”式的治疗方案选择。新药推出后，找出使用它的最佳方式其实并不需要50年的时间。

三十三、Bricks-and-mortar shops struggle to win customers back from virtual ones

实体商场从网络商家手中极力挽回消费者

SHOPPERS on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season in America, which falls on November 27th this year, are notoriously aggressive. Some even start queuing outside stores before dawn to be the first to lay their hands on heavily discounted merchandise. Last year berserk bargain-hunters in the suburbs of New York City trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death. Despite the frenzy at many stores, however, the recession appears to have accelerated the pace at which shoppers are abandoning bricks and mortar in favor of online retailers—e-tailers, in the jargon. So this year Black Friday (so named because it is supposed to put shops into profit for the year) also marks the start of many conventional retailers’ attempts to regain the initiative.

E-commerce holds particular appeal in straitened times as it enables people to compare prices across retailers quickly and easily. Buyers can sometimes avoid local sales taxes online, and shipping is often free. No wonder, then, that online shopping continues to grow even as the offline sort shrinks. In 2008 retail sales grew by a feeble 1% in America and are expected to decline by more than 3% this year, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade body. In contrast, online sales grew by 13% in 2008 to over $141 billion and are predicted to grow by 11% in 2009, according to Forrester, a consultancy.

Online sales now account for 6% of all retail sales in America (up from 5% in 2008) and that figure is expected to reach 8% by 2013. E-commerce is also growing in Europe and Asia, where online sales in 2008 totaled $60 billion and $40 billion, respectively. In Britain, internet shopping now accounts for nearly 4% of total retail sales, according to Planet Retail, a research firm.

Online-only shopping sites such as Amazon and eBay, two e-commerce giants, have thrived in the downturn. Amazon’s sales rose to around $5.5 billion in the third quarter of the year, up by almost 30% from a year before. Listings, chiefly from commercial vendors, have surged so rapidly on eBay that its website briefly crashed on November 21st.

The range of items available online is also growing. Amazon has started selling groceries. Consumer-goods companies such as Procter & Gamble (P&G) are encouraging the sale of things like nappies (diapers) and laundry detergent online. At the opposite extreme, the internet is also being used to sell luxury goods. Fabergé, a defunct-jewellery-maker known for its gem-encrusted eggs, re-launched in September. It will not open any shops but will instead operate only online.

The shift in spending to the internet is good news for companies like P& G that lack retail outlets of their own. But it is a big concern for brick-and-mortar retailers, whose prices are often higher than those of e-tailers, since they must bear the extra expense of running stores. Happily, however, conventional retailers are in a better position to fight back than last year, when overstocking forced them to resort to ruinous discounting. Inventories are about 15% lower this year. Some big retailers, such as Saks and Target, have recently reported rising revenues and margins.

The most obvious response to the growth of e-tailing is for conventional retailers to redouble their own efforts online. The online arms of big retailers are performing well, on the whole. Saks, for example, saw online sales rise 9% in the nine months to the end of October while sales in its stores fell by 19%. The company expects online growth to outpace sales in stores for the “foreseeable future”, says Stephen Sadove, its boss.

The concept of “multi-channel” shopping, where people can buy the same items from the same retailer in several different ways—online, via their mobile phones and in shops—is gaining ground, and retailers are trying to encourage users of one channel to try another. Growing online traffic may actually increase sales in stores too. According to a spokesman for Macy’s, a department-store chain, every dollar a consumer spends online with Macy’s leads to $5.70 in spending at a Macy’s store within ten days, because consumers learn about other products online and come into stores to look them over before buying them. Many online retailers offer tools that let people locate the nearest outlet that has a given item in stock.

Retailers are also trying to make shopping seem fun and exciting to counteract the economic gloom. One common tactic is to set up “pop-up” stores, which appear for a short time before vanishing again, to foster a sense of novelty and urgency. Following the lead of many bricks-and-mortar outfits, eBay recently launched a pop-up in New York where customers could inspect items before ordering them from kiosks.

Shoppers are increasingly looking for an “experience” when they go to stores, says Jack Anderson of Hornall Anderson, a branding and marketing firm, and are no longer interested in purely “transaction-based bricks and mortar stores”. Apple, which encourages customers to try out its devices in its stores, is considered a pioneer of this strategy, and has attracted many imitators. The Walt Disney Company, for example, is rumored to be redesigning its stores to attract shoppers looking for entertainment, with new features such as “magic mirrors”, which will allow children to play with Disney characters.

Stores are also trying to lure customers by offering services that are not available online. Best Buy, a consumer-electronics retailer, has started selling music lessons along with its musical instruments. Lululemon athletica, which sells sports clothes, offers free yoga classes. The idea is to bring people back to its shops regularly, increasing the likelihood that they will develop the habit of shopping there.

Another great hope is that mobile phones will come to the rescue of conventional retailers. Some consumers already use internet-enabled handsets to shop online. But many analysts think a technology called near-field communication (NFC) might boost sales at stores, by allowing shoppers to scan products with their phones to learn more about them, and then to pay by swiping their phones at the till. Unfortunately, NFC will not be widely available for some time—too late to help harried retailers through Black Friday.

黑色星期五通常是美国假日消费季节的开端，今年的黑色星期五恰逢11月27日，场面热闹非凡。有些人甚至天没亮就在商店门外排队希望可以第一个抢到“大跳水”的商品。去年，纽约市郊沃尔玛超市的一名员工因为顾客疯抢打折商品而被踩伤致死。然而，商场销售虽然火爆，但商场萧条之势却越演越烈，因为消费者正在弃实体商场转而投入在线零售商---行话叫电子零售商的怀抱。所以今年的黑色星期五（这样命名源于这一天应该是令商店该年盈利的日子）也标志着传统实体零售商收回失地的第一炮。

在经济大环境恶化的背景下，电子商务具有独特的优势：消费者可以轻松快捷的货比三家。有时在网上购物可以避开当地营业税，而且通常免邮费。这就难怪网络销售可以在即使实体店销售萎缩的情况下仍然保持增长。2008实体商场零售额增长了可怜的1%, 而且预计今年的销售量将下滑三个百分点，全美零售商联合会（贸易组织）如是说。而与之形成鲜明对比的是网络销售。根据顾问公司福斯特的报告，网络销售量于2008年增长了13%，达到1410亿美元，预计今年将增长11%。

网络销售目前占全美销售量的6%（2008年为5%），预计到2013年之前这一数字将达到8%。电子商务在欧洲和亚洲也方兴未艾，两洲2008年的网络销售额分别为600亿美元和400亿美元。目前英国的网络销售量占销售总额的4%左右，这一数字引自调研公司行星零售。

诸如亚马逊和eBAY（网络销售巨头）等不设实体店铺的在线消费网站在经济危机之下茁壮成长。亚马逊今年三季度的销售量达到约55亿美金，与去年相比，增长了30%. eBay亦是如此。订单（以供应商的为主）数激增，导致eBay网站于11月21日暂时瘫痪。

网络销售的产品种类亦在扩大。亚马逊已经开始在网上销售杂货。保洁等消费品公司也正在网上促销像尿片和洗衣粉等小商品。与这些小商品完全相反的奢侈品也被搬到了网上销售。已经销声匿迹的珠宝制造商Fabergé（以镶嵌宝石的蛋而闻名）于九月重新开业。该公司摒弃实体店只在网络销售产品。

消费者转向网络消费对保洁这种没有自己专营店的公司来说是利好消息。而对于实体零售商来说却是棘手问题。因为实体零售商存在经营成本，其零售价格通常高于网上价格。然而，利好的一面是今年传统的零售商能够扳回一成的几率较去年高。去年库存过多，传统零售商被迫亏本打折，而今年的库存量下降了大约15%。诸如Saks和Target等的一些大型零售商已于最近传来营业额增加，利润率上升的好消息。

传统零售商应对网络销售最直接的应对措施是进一步加强网络销售力度。总的来说，大型零售商的网络销售部门表现抢眼。以Saks为例，该公司一月至十月的网络销售额增长了9%，而实体店销售则下滑19%。Saks希望在“可预见的未来”网络销售增长超过实体商场，Saks总裁Stephen Sadove如是说。

“多渠道”销售的概念是指顾客可以通过网络、手机、亲临实体店等不同方式从同一个零售商手中买到同样的产品。这种概念正在为人们所接受。零售商也在鼓励单一渠道的消费者尝试其他的购买途径。网上交易量增长也可能促进实体店的销量上升。梅西百货公司（百货连锁公司）的发言人表示：顾客在梅西网站每花一美元，十天之内该顾客会在梅西百货商店消费5.7美元，因为顾客在网站上看到其他商品的信息，他们会亲临商场仔细检查在网上看到的商品，然后再购买。很多网络商家还提供专门服务，帮助顾客找到离他们最近的、出售他们中意产品的专营店。

商家也在绞尽脑汁增加购物的乐趣和刺激感以应对经济颓势。最常见的策略是开设“弹出式”店铺，这种店铺仅短时间存在，之后便再次消失，给顾客以新鲜感和紧迫感（要赶紧购买，否则便消失不见了）。eBay也加入实体店引领的风潮，于最近在纽约开设了一家弹出式商铺。顾客可以在这个商铺里仔细检查商品品质，然后在网上订购。

消费者越来越倾向于“体验式”购物，“纯交易性实体商店”已经无法打动顾客的心了，品牌与营销公司Hornall Anderson的 Jack Anderson如是说。苹果公司在“体验式”购物方面是先锋，顾客可以在苹果店试用产品，引来许多商家跟风。迪斯尼公司便是其中之一。据传，该公司正在重新设计店铺吸引喜欢娱乐的顾客。店铺增加了诸如“魔镜”等特色项目，孩子们还可以和迪斯尼卡通人物一起玩耍。

实体商店也在竭尽全力吸引顾客，为他们提供网上购物无法实现的服务。消费类电子零售商百思买已经开始通过绑定音乐教学课来销售乐器。体育服装公司 Lululemon athletica开设免费瑜伽课（带动产品销量）。这种做法能够把顾客定期拉回到商店，进而增加了顾客在商店购物的可能性。

另一个被寄予厚望拯救传统零售商的是手机。有些顾客已经使用具有上网功能的手机在网上购物。但是分析人士认为能够提振商店销量的或许是近距离通信技术（NFC），利用这项技术，消费者可以通过手机了解产品信息，然后再通过手机付款。问题在于，NFC广泛应用尚待时日，帮助腹背受敌的商家实现黑色星期五盈利还无从谈起。

三十四、How much will the financial crisis hurt America’s economic potential?

金融危机究竟会对美国的经济潜力造成多大损害？

AMID the hubbub over a few less-bad-than-expected statistics, America’s economic debate has turned to the nature of the recovery. Optimists expect a vigorous rebound as confidence returns, pent-up demand is unleashed and massive government stimulus takes effect. Most observers, including this newspaper, are bracing for a long slog, as debt-laden consumers rebuild their savings, output growth remains weak and unemployment continues to rise. There is, however, something that eventually will have a much bigger impact on Americans’ prosperity than the slope of the recovery. That is the effect of the crisis on America’s potential rate of growth itself.

An economy’s long-term speed limit (its “trend” or “potential” rate of growth) is the pace at which GDP can expand without affecting unemployment and, hence, inflation. It is determined by growth in the supply of labor (the number of workers and how long they toil) along with the speed with which productivity improves. The pace of potential growth helps determine the sustainability of everything from public debt to the prices of shares.

Unfortunately, the outlook for America’s potential growth rate was darkening long before the financial crisis hit. The IT-induced productivity revolution, which sent potential output soaring at the end of the 1990s, has waned. More important, America’s labor supply is growing more slowly as the population ages, the share of women working has leveled off and that of students who work has fallen. Since 1991 the labor supply has risen at an average annual pace of 1.1%. Over the next decade the Congressional Budget Office expects a 0.6% annual increase.

According to Robert Gordon, a productivity guru at Northwestern University, America’s trend rate of growth in 2008 was only 2.5%, the lowest rate in its history, and well below the 3-3.5% that many took for granted a few years ago. Without factoring in the financial crisis, Mr. Gordon expects potential growth to fall to 2.35% over the coming years.

That alone is grim news. But has the Great Recession made things worse? In theory, it could do. Slumping investment may slow the pace of innovation. Soaring government debt could raise interest rates. Higher taxes, designed to reduce the debt, might dull incentives to work and invest. More regulation, in finance and beyond, could deter innovation. Workers’ skills may atrophy as a result of joblessness. On the plus side, well-targeted government spending on, say, infrastructure or education could boost potential output, while the huge wealth that Americans have lost may induce more of them to work for longer.

History sends mixed signals about how much these effects matter. Surprisingly, the 1930s bode well. Despite the deep slump in growth and investment, America’s potential growth rate is reckoned to have risen smartly during the decade, as innovations from nylon to synthetic rubber proliferated, while business processes were fundamentally overhauled. Alexander Field, an economist at Santa Clara University, has called the 1930s the “most technologically progressive” decade of the 20th century.

In the modern era Sweden offers grounds for optimism. Its productivity growth accelerated after the early 1990s financial crash, in part because the government dealt swiftly with the banking mess. Japan, in contrast, saw productivity growth shrivel in the early 1990s. Several studies pin blame for that on Japan’s unwillingness to tackle its banking mess. But the process was not irreversible; Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute has argued that by the late 1990s Japan’s potential output had risen modestly, thanks to financial reform and broader deregulation. Nor is there much sign that Japan’s gaping budget deficits have crowded out private investment. Yields on long-term Japanese bonds slumped from 7% in 1990 to 1% in 2003, and are still only 1.45%, even as gross public debt is heading for 200% of GDP.

Is this cause for optimism about America? Possibly not. Compared with the 1930s, America’s workers are more specialized, which makes it harder to shift occupation; they are also more cushioned with social protection, which reduces the urgency to adapt. Workers are less flexible because the housing bust will prevent many from selling their houses to move to where the jobs are. JP Morgan estimates that America’s natural rate of joblessness may have risen from 4.75% to closer to 6%.

Today’s investment slump may have particularly pernicious effects on productivity because, unlike Japan’s, it does not follow a capital-spending binge. During the recent bubble years, America’s housing investment boomed, but corporate investment was laid low by the dotcom bust.

Debt burden

Most important, even if Americans become thriftier, soaring public debt may crowd out private investment more than in Japan, which, unlike America, is a creditor country. Already American bond yields are starting to rise. Academics differ about just how much bigger budget deficits and higher public debt affect interest rates, but most agree that they do. A 2004 study suggests that interest rates rise by 0.03% for every 1% increase in the debt/GDP ratio. That ratio is set to rise by 30 percentage points between 2008 and 2011, which implies a 1% higher risk-free interest rate, and commensurately lower private-sector investment. Even if higher private saving blunts the effect, some crowding out is eventually all too likely.

All of these effects can be mitigated by good policies, or exacerbated by bad ones. Sensible approaches to reducing America’s long-term deficit, by tackling entitlement spending or reforming the tax code, would minimize the rise in long-term yields and might even boost potential growth. Misguided efforts to prop up declining industries or dictate lending decisions would add to the damage. America is heading for an era of slower growth. Just how much slower is still up for grabs.

在对一些比预期稍好的数据的聒噪中，对美国经济的争论倒向了恢复的一边。乐观人士预计在信心回稳、抑制的需求得到释放以及政府大规模刺激方案取得成效的情况下，经济会有力的反弹。包括本报在内的多数观察家则认为慢慢前路仍充满艰险，因为深陷债务泥潭的消费者在重新建立他们的储蓄，出口增长依然疲软而且未就业人数继续上升。然而，一些东西最终对美国繁荣的影响要比经济复苏这一斜线大的多。那就是危机对美国潜在增长率的影响。

一个经济体的长期速度限制（它的“趋势”或“潜在”增长率）是它维持GDP能够增长而又不影起未就业人数和通货膨胀变化的速度。它由劳动力供给（工人数量和工作时间）的增长与生产率提高的速度决定。潜在增长率的速度帮助决定了从公共债务到股票价格等的一切事物的可持续性。

不幸的是，早在金融危机袭来之前，美国的潜在增长率的前景就日趋暗淡。曾在90年代末使潜在前景飞涨的IT导向型生产力革命已经式微，更重要的是，美国的劳动力供给速度要远落后于人口老龄化的速度。参加工作的妇女所占的份额与之前持平，而学生的就业率在下降。自1991年起劳动力供给以年均1.1％的速度增长。国会预算办公室预测未来10年的增长速度为0.6％。

据西北大学生产力专家Robert Gordon,称，美国2008年的增长率仅仅接近2.5％，这是历史上的最低点，而且远低于多数人前些年认为理应达到的3－3.5％。将金融危机排除后，Gordon先生预计未来几年的潜在增长率回跌落到2.35％。

单独来看这是一个残酷的消息，然而是经济大萧条把事情弄得更糟吗？理论上讲，是的。暴跌的投资会减缓创新的速度。飚升的国债导致利率升高。旨在减少债务的更高额税金或许会降低工作和投资的动机。在金融与其它领域的更多监管会阻碍创新。作为失业的恶果，工人们的技能可能会退化。从正面上看，政府对基础设施和教育有的放矢的投资能够提升潜在产出，尽管美国人失去的巨额财富可能促使更多的人工作更长时间。

对于这些对此问题的影响有多大，历史给出了混杂的答案。令人吃惊的是，30年代预示了良好的形势。尽管增长与投资暴跌，但由于诸如尼龙和人造橡胶等创新的普及，美国的潜在增长率经计算在这10年中还有小幅上升。在此期间商业过程得到根本性的革新。Santa Clara大学的经济学家Alexander Field将30年代称之为20世纪“最技术革新”的十年。

在现代，瑞典为乐观者提供了坚实土壤。它的生产力增长在90年代早期金融冲击后加速，这部分得益于政府对银行坏帐的及时处置。日本则与其恰恰相反，在90 年代早期它的生产力增长减缓。许多研究将批评矛头指向日本无意解决它的银行坏帐问题。但这个过程不是不可逆的。Peterson研究所的 Adam Posen 认为由于金融改革和更大规模的解除管制，日本的潜在产量在90年代后期有了适当上升。也没有什么迹象表明日本那令人吃惊的预算赤字对私人投资产生了挤出效应。日本长期债券收益从1990年的7％跌落至2003年的1％。即使公共负债的总额达到GDP的两倍，收益也只有1.45％。

这是对美国持乐观精神的原因吗？可能不是。与30年代相比，美国工人们变得更加专业，这使得他们更难更换工作；社会保护措施给了他们更多的缓冲，这就降低了他们适应当前形势的迫切性。工人们并没有多少灵活性，因为房地产的破产将阻碍许多人卖掉房屋从而搬迁到能够找到工作的地方。JP Morgan 预计美国的自然失业率可能从4.75％上升至接近6％。

现今暴跌的投资可能对生产力有显著的恶劣影响，因为随它而来的并不是资本消费的盛宴，这与日本不同。在最近充满泡沫的几年里，美国的房地产投资很繁荣，但公司投资由于之前的互联网崩溃而处于低位。

债务负担

最关键的是，即使美国人变得节俭了，飞涨的公共债务可能会对私人投资产生挤出效应，而且要比日本的更厉害。而日本是一个债权人国家，这与美国不同。美国债券收益已经开始上升。学者们只就多大的预算赤字和多高的公共负债会影响利率意见不同，但多数人认为它们的确会影响利率。一份2004年的研究显示负债与 GDP之比每提高1％，利率就升高0.03％。在2008到2011间，这个比值将固定为上升30个百分点，这就意味着无风险利率每升高1％，私人部门投资就会降低相应的数额。即使更多的个人储蓄会弱化这一效应，某些挤出效应将最终与其类似。

所有的这些影响可以通过实施好的政策得以减轻，也可以在不力政策下进一步恶化。通过解决授权支出或改革税法的办法是削减美国长期赤字的明智方法，这将使长期收益的增长最小化并且甚至可能提高潜在增长。支持衰微产业或指定贷款决议的误入歧途的努力会增加损害。美国正在走向慢速增长的时代。只是到底有多慢，这还有待观察。

三十五、Internet search data may be useful for forecasters

网络搜索数据也许可以帮助经济预测专家

CLAIMS of clairvoyance, particularly when they come from economists, deserve a sceptical reception. Hal Varian, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who also happens to be Google’s chief economist, has no such pretensions, but he does believe that data on internet searches can help predict certain kinds of economic statistics before they become available.

In a new paper written with Hyunyoung Choi, a colleague at Google, he argues that fluctuations in the frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict, for example, retail-sales figures or house sales. Actual numbers for such things are usually available only with a lag. But Google’s search data are updated every day, so they can in theory capture shifts in consumer behaviour before official numbers are released.

These data are available through a site called Google Trends, which allows anyone who cares to do so to download an index of the aggregate volume of searches for particular terms or categories. Mr Varian and Mr Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates.

For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data. The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well.

How widely could this idea be applied? For some things, like retail sales, the categories into which Google classifies its search-trend data correspond closely to what people may want to predict, such as the sales of a particular brand of car (see chart). For others, like sales of houses, things are less clear. It appears that searches for estate agents work better than those for home financing. But anything that makes the crystal ball less cloudy is welcome.

人们具有预见能力的这一说，尤其是经济学家的预见能力通常都会引起质疑。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授，谷歌公司首席经济学家Hal Varian表示，他没有如此的洞察力和预见力，但他相信在某些经济统计数据公布之前，网络搜索的数据能够帮助预测这些数据。

Varian和谷歌的另一名同事Hyunyoung Choi最新发表了一篇论文，他表示对于人们在网上搜索的一些字词短语，其频率的变化可以提高经济计量模型预测零售销售或售房数据的准确性。这些确切销售数据通常是要滞后一段时间才能得到。但是谷歌搜索数据每天都在更新，因此理论上在官方数字出炉之前，们就把握住了消费者行为的变化。

人们可以在一个名叫谷歌趋势的网站上得到这些数据，并且可以下载特定条款或物品被搜索总量的指数。Varian和Choi表示，共同利用这些搜索趋势和经济计量模型就能够提高预测的准确性。

比如，与不用搜索数据的模型得出的预测相比，利用货车和SUV的搜索数据来预测汽车月销售量会减少高达18%的平均误差。在美国，英国，澳大利亚和印度等国进行的对香港的搜索似乎也能预测从这些国家到香港旅行的游客人数。

这一方法的应用有多广？对于一些事物，比如零售销售，某些种类（谷歌将搜索趋势数据划分到该种类）和人们期望预测的事物非常相关，比如某一种汽车品牌的销售。对于其它的项目，如房屋销售，情况就比较模糊。但对房地产经纪人的搜索似乎比对房屋抵押贷款机构的搜索更能清楚地说明房屋销售问题。无论如何，，只要能使这个水晶球更加透明清晰，任何方法都是受人欢迎的。

三十六 Physiognomy and economics

相面术与经济学

About fac

有关相貌

People’s creditworthiness, it seems, can be seen in their looks

人的信誉度，似乎可以为相貌所反映

SCIENCE proceeds by trial and error. The successes are trumpeted. The errors are often regarded with embarrassment by subsequent generations, and locked away in attic rooms of the subject’s mansion like mad relatives in a Victorian novel. Usually, they stay there. Craniology, phrenology and eugenics, once-respectable fields of endeavor that are now regarded with a shudder, may shriek from time to time, but few sane people pay attention to them. One, however, has escaped recently, and is trying to rehabilitate itself. For years physiognomy—the idea that a person’s face is a reflection of his character—was sneered at. Now, it is making a come back.

Appearances certainly count. Women, for instance, judge men by their faces. Testosterone levels are reflected in the face, and who is seen as a one-night stand and who as a potential husband depends in part on this physical feature. Similarly, a male face betrays the owner’s underlying aggressiveness and even his business acumen. Facial beauty in either sex is also associated with higher incomes. The latest research, though, cuts to the moral quick. For Jefferson Duarte of Rice University in Houston, Texas, and his colleagues are suggesting that one of a person’s most telling moral features, his creditworthiness, can also be seen in his face.

Dr Duarte’s research was enabled by the internet. Once, if you wanted to borrow money, you had either to visit a bank or to tap a rich friend or relative. Now it is possible to do business directly with a stranger, using a peer-to-peer lending site. The needy advertise themselves, and how much they want. Those flush with cash assess potential borrowers and decide who to lend to, and at what rate of interest.

The borrowers themselves have to disclose their financial positions, credit histories, jobs and education. Often, though this is not required, they also post photographs of themselves. That means it might be possible to assess the effects of appearance on the outcome. And the process is an open auction, which means that all offers, acceptances and rejections are in the public domain.

For his research, Dr Duarte chose a site called Prosper.com. His intention was twofold: to see if physiognomy-based prejudices about creditworthiness existed and, if they did, whether they were justified. To do so he used another peer-to-peer website to subcontract the job of assessing creditworthiness to a number of ordinary people. The site in question (which is run by Amazon) is called Mechanical Turk. In this case the people it matches are those who have a task that needs doing, and those willing to perform it.

Peer review The team recruited 25 Mechanical Turk workers and asked them to assess pictures of potential borrowers that had been posted on Prosper.com. In particular, they were asked to rate, on a scale of one to five, how trustworthy these people looked, and to estimate the percentage probability that each individual would repay a $100 loan. They were also asked to make several other assessments, such as the individual’s sex, race, age, attractiveness and obesity. The 25 results for each photograph were then averaged and analyzed.

The researchers looked at 6,821 loan applications, 733 of which were successful. Their first finding was that the assessments of trustworthiness, and of likelihood to repay a loan, that were made by Mechanical Turk workers did indeed correlate with potential borrowers’ credit ratings based on their credit history. That continued to be so when the other variables, from beauty to race to obesity, were controlled for statistically. Shifty physiognomy, it seems, is independent of these things.

That shiftiness was also recognized by those whose money was actually at stake. People flagged as untrustworthy by the Mechanical Turks were less likely than others to be offered a loan at all. To have the same chance of getting one as those deemed most trustworthy they were required to pay an interest rate that was, on average, 1.82 percentage points higher, even when the effects of historical creditworthiness were statistically eliminated.

For trustworthiness, then, physiognomy works. Unfortunately, Dr Duarte’s method was not designed to find out which features label someone as trustworthy. But credit-rating agencies are no doubt working on that question even now.

科学依靠试错而前行。成功伴随着胜利的号角得以扬名天下，而谬误让后人感到尴尬万分，就像维多利亚时代的小说中常描写的发疯的亲戚那样，被束之高阁，无人问津。通常情况下，这些谬论就这么一直沉寂下去了。颅骨测量学、颅骨性向学、优生学这些曾经引人景仰的学说现在已经令人厌恶，虽然偶尔也能让人注意片刻，但在常人的意识中已经无立锥之地了。然而，最近有一个学说似乎逃出沉沦，绝地重生。这就是相面术，即所谓人的脸反映其性格的学说。这个曾被人讥讽、嘲笑的对象，现在卷土重来了。

人的外表确实重要。例如，女人通常根据脸判别男人。脸反映了男人的雄激素的水平，谁被看作是一夜情对象，谁被看作是一个潜在的丈夫在某种程度上取决于脸部特征。可同样也是男性的脸隐藏了其下的进取心，甚至是他的商业敏感。对男女两性来说，漂亮的脸蛋也与高收入不无关系。最新的研究结果，把人的相貌和道德之间的关系也迅速搭建起来了。之所以这么说，是因为位于得克萨斯州休斯顿的赖斯大学的杰弗逊杜阿尔特和他的同事们认为，作为最反映一个人道德水平的特征 - 人的信誉度，也同时反映在了他的脸上。

阿尔特博士的研究是由互联网启用。 再次，如果您要借钱，你可以访问银行或利用丰富的朋友或亲戚。现在是做生意的可能直接与一个陌生人，使用点对点借贷网站。 需要宣传自己，他们要多少。这些充裕的现金评估潜在的借款人，并决定向谁贷款，以及以何种利率。

借款人本身必须公开其财务状况，信用记录，就业和教育。通常情况下，尽管这不是必需的，他们还张贴自己的照片。 这意味着有可能的影响评估的结果出现。该进程是一个开放的拍卖，这意味着所有提供，接受和拒绝是在公共领域。

他的研究，选择了医生杜阿尔特网站呼吁Prosper.com 。他的意图是双重的：看看地貌为基础的偏见和信誉存在，如果他们这么做，他们是否是合理的。这样做他用另一种点对点网站的工作分包合同信用评估了一些普通百姓。 该网站的问题（这是由亚马逊）被称为机械特克。在这种情况下，人民匹配的是谁的任务，需要做的时候，和那些愿意履行它。

研究小组招募25机械特克工人，并要求他们以评估潜在的借款人的照片，已张贴在Prosper.com 。特别是，他们被要求速度，规模的4点59分，怎么看这些人的信赖，并估计百分比概率每一个人将偿还100美元的贷款。他们还要求作出若干其他评估，如个人的性别，种族，年龄，吸引力和肥胖。 结果在25日的照片，然后每场和分析。

研究者观察到6821贷款申请，其中733是成功的。他们的第一个结论是，评估的可信度，并可能偿还贷款，即发了言机械特克工人确实相关的潜在借款人的信用等级根据其信用记录。继续这样做时，其他变量，来自美种族肥胖，被控制的统计。 富机智的外貌，似乎是独立于这些东西。这shiftiness也承认那些钱实际上是处于危险之中。 标记为不可信赖的人的机械土耳其人不太可能比其他人提供的贷款在所有。具有相同的机会获得一个为那些被认为最值得信赖的，他们需要支付的利息是，平均1.82个百分点，即使在历史上的影响进行了统计信誉消除。

对于诚信，那么，地貌工程。 不幸的是，医生杜阿尔特的方法不是为了找出哪些功能标签作为值得信赖的人。但信用评级机构的工作毫无疑问是对这个问题即使是现在。

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