________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.Believing Oxy’s Chazen: he promises positive change within coming months satisfaction. Now the questions, all of which seem pertinent, require the call to be cut off when it gets well past the hour. Sending the memo/the negatives :dilution. Capitulated on California as the upside driver, just over two years afterthe last analyst meeting in which 3 of 5 modules highlighted California forOxy’s future growth. Cut California rigs to 20 from a high of 30, crashing our DCF by $6/share if costs cannot be lowered. Price target lowered to $95.Reading the memo/the positives : mea culpa, a clear and serious tone andrecognition that the severe under-performance of the stock is a function of the returns dilution that the company is currently under-taking by pursuing growth International/Middle East (except in the long term Abu Dhabi sour gas project 2014+). Beyond the positive recognition of the problem, the positive resolution.An undertaking to change strategy within months, towards cash returns to shareholders, if costs can’t be cut and/or stock under-performance continues.That’s a powerful win-win promise to the market/shareholders. BUY . For COP,grinding out growth in line with a modest 3% target, with 3% forecast growth for next year, solid operations & profitability, and unglamorous but, we feel,highly effective prioritization of dividend as a strategy, all led to a satisfyingperformance for shareholders. This is Wall St oil, not Hollywood; boring beats drama. COP used to play a drama role; the market forced change; currentmanagement clearly understand the boring/winning strategy: dividend first.Oxy upside inside: 2x the dividend for a 30%+ stock move? Valuation and Risks COP: average $66 NAV ($83 with 20% discount) vs our P/E methodology (9x target P/E & mid-cycle EPS est $6.30) = blended PT. Downside risks: accidents,a failure to execute disposals, or worse, an unexpected major acquisition.Upside risks: more aggressive disposals/share buyback vs. expectations. For OXY, a $103 NAV and $88 from 12x target P/E and mid-cycle EPS est of $7.30results in our blended PT. OXY’s high oil price leverage, faltering strategy,somewhat confused identity, and valuation could present downside should further confusion & disappointments ensue despite the CEO’s efforts.

行业-德意志银行-REMEMBER - THE - MARKETS - MEMO - TO - MR - MULVA