Economic Growth for China and Japan

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BMFSA(2008-13-1-02BiomedicalSoftComputingandHumanSciences,Vol.13,No.1,pp.7-12(2008
[OriginalArticle]Copyright©1995BiomedicalFuzzySystemsAssociationAcceptedonJanuary14,2008
EconomicGrowthforChinaandJapan
GuoQingZHAO*andHonggangFAN**
*SchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina**SchoolofInformation,RenminUniversityofChina

Abstract:Inthispaper,acomparativeinvestigationofthetotalfactorproductivities(TFPbetweenChinaandJapanshowsthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofTFPforChinafrom1978to2002is3.7%,mainlycontributedbytheeconomicreformandopen-uppolicy,andthat,onthecontrary,theannualgrowthrateforJapanislowerthan1%aftertheshockof1973OilCrisis.ConsideringthefactthatthegrowthtrendofChina’sTFPafter1994hasbeencontinuouslydeclining,wesuggestthatifChinadoesnotspeeduptheadjustmentofitsindustrialstructureandthetechnologicalinnovation,suchasintroductionofthenewtechniquesfromdevelopedcountries,ChinamayinevitablysufferfromdecliningoftechnologicalprogressaswhathashappenedtoJapan.Finally,theforeigntradepatternsforthetwocountriesarealsoanalyzed.

KeywordsEconomicgrowth,totalfactorproductivity,theratioofforeigntradetonationalincome
1.Introduction1

Economicgrowththeorycomposestheessenceofmacroeconomictheory.In1956SolowandSwanpublishedapaperonneweconomicgrowththeorycalledneoclassicaleconomicgrowththeory.Thetheorybelievesthatmostoftheeconomicgrowthdependsontheexogenoustechnologicalprogress.Realizingthefullutilizingoftheproductionfactors(capitalandlaborbytheactionandadjustmentofthemarketisthemainfeatureoftheneoclassicaleconomicgrowthmodel.Infact,therearetwocriticalassumptionsintheneoclassicaleconomicgrowthmodel:1thetechnologyisexogenous;2theproductionscaleincomeisinvariable.Therefore,alongtermeconomicgrowthispossibleonlyundertheactionoftheexogenousvariables(thepopulationrateandthetechnologicalprogressrate.Althoughtheseassumptionslimitthestudyforthemechanismoftechnologicalprogresstoacertainextent,therigorousmathematicalanalysisoftheneoclassicaleconomicgrowthmodelrevealsstillthatthelongtermeconomicgrowthdependsnotonlyoncapitalaccumulationandlaborinputs,butmoreimportantly,onthetechnologicalprogress.

Theneoclassicaleconomicgrowthmodelprovidedthefoundationofmathematicalanalysisforthesourcesofeconomicgrowth.Solow(1957analyzedthesourcesoftheUnitedState’sgrowthandconcludedthattheaverageannualgrowthrateoftheUnitedState’s
ThisresearchhasbeensupportedbyInstituteofEconomicReformandDevelopment,"985Project"fromRenminUniversityofChina.
Address:NO.59ZhongguancunStreet,HaidianDistrict,Beijing,100872,China
E-mail:zhaogq@ruc.edu.cn
GNPwere2.9%from1909to1949,whereasthecontributionofcapitalaccumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogresswere0.32%,1.09%and1.49%,respectively.Denison(1974conductedthesameanalysisasSolowfortheUnitedState’sgrowthduringtheperiodof1929-1969.Hisresultsshowedthatduringthatperiod,theannualaveragegrowthrateoftheUnitedState’sGNPwas3.41%,whereasthecontributionofcapitalaccumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogresswere0.50%,1.32%and1.59%,respectively.OhkawaandRosovsky(1973studiedtheJapaneseeconomicgrowthintheperiodof1955-1961andfoundthattheannualaveragegrowthratewas13.03%,whereasthecontributionofcapital
accumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogresswere2.86%,3.41%and6.75%,respectively.The
commonpointdrawnfromthestudiesoftheeconomicgrowthinU.S.andJapanisthattechnologicalprogresshasplayedanimportantroleintheeconomicgrowth.Lietal.(1996studiedtherelationofthe
productivityandtheeconomicgrowthofChina,andtheirresultsshowedthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChinaduringtheperiodof1978-1995was10.60%,whereasthecontributionrateofcapitalaccumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogresswere46.86%,13.31%and19.85%,respectively.ZhangF.(2000studiedthecontributionoftheproductionfactorsforeconomicgrowthandfoundthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChinaduringtheperiodof1978-1995was10.07%,whereasthecontributionofcapitalaccumulation(physicalcapitalandhumancapital,laborinputandtechnologicalprogresswere5.82%,1.50%and2.75%,respectively.ZhangJ.(2001pointed
outthatthetechnologicalprogressrateofChinaduring
theperiodof1978-1998was2.81%anditscontributionBiomedicalSoftComputing&HumanSciences,Vol.13,No.1,March20088

ratetoeconomicgrowthwas31%.TheresultisverysimilartotheonefromZhangF.(2000.Duringtheperiodof1978to2002,Chinese
economyhasachievedthewell-knownhighspeed
growth.Theaverageannualgrowthrateoftheeconomyduringthistheperiodwas9.5%,whichisfarhigherthantheaveragerateofworldeconomyinthesameperiod.Withthefastgrowingoftheeconomy,however,somefactorsthatlimitthedevelopmentofeconomyhasappeared.Especiallyinthelasttenyears,withtheadjustmentofeconomicstructure,moreandmorethosekindsoffactorshaveincreased.AmongthemhowtobalancethequalityandspeedoftheeconomicgrowthbecomesoneofthemainquestionsthatChinaeconomyhastoface.BecausethetechnologicalprogressisthemostimportantfactoroftheTFP,webelievethatinvestigatingthefluctuationoftheChina’sTFPduringtheperiodof1978-2002willhelpustounderstandtheeffectsofthetechnologicalprogressoneconomicgrowthofChina.Afterimplementingthereformandopen-uppolicy,theimportandexportareimportant
impetustothehigheconomicgrowthofChina.ThisarticleestimatesthesensitivityofthechangeofChinese
foreigntradefrom1990to2002andobjectivelydescribestheeffectsofthenationalincomeandpriceonthechangeofChinaforeigntrade.InSection2,thecalculationframeoftheTFPisgivenbasedonneoclassicaleconomicgrowththeoryandtechnology.InSection3,onthebasisoftheestimationfortheproductionfunction,wediscusstheeffectsofthetechnologicalprogressontheeconomicgrowthofChinaandJapan.InSection4,theratiochangesofforeigntradetonationalincomeinChinaandJapanareanalyzed,andtheelasticityofthetwocountry’simportandexportarealsocompared.Finally,theconclusionissummarizedinSection5.
2.ModelandData
InordertoanalyzetheeffectofallfactorsonChineseeconomicgrowth,theneoclassicaleconomicgrowthmodelisapplied.WeconsidertheCobb-Douglasproductionfunctionasfollows:1tuttttYAKLeαα−
=(1TakingnaturallogarithmsofbothsidesofEquation(1,
obtaining
lnlnln(1lnttttt
YAKLuαα=++−+(2

whereYistheGDP,Kiscapital,Lislabor,anduis
randomdisturbance.
IgnoringthedisturbancetermanddifferentiatingtheEquation(1aboutthetime,weobtain
///(1/YYAAKKLLαα=++−&&&&(3So,
//(/(1/AAYYKKLLαα=−+−&&&&(4/AA&representstheresidualineconomygrowththatcannotbeexplainedbythegrowthofcapitalandlabor,andmeasuresthefluctuationsoftheproductionduetotheimprovementofproductionwayundertheconditionoffixedinputs.FromtheEquation(1,Acanbeexplainedastheproductionduetounitinputofthetotalfactor(capital,laboretc.,andsoitiscalledasthetotalfactorproductivity(TFP.Hence,inthisarticletheTFPisdefinedasfollows:1/ttttTFPYKLαα−
=(5So,thegrowthrateofTFPcanbeexpressedas:1
(/1ttt
GTFPTFPTFP−
=−(6BasedonthetimeseriesdataofChina’sGDP,capitalandlaborduringtheperiodof1977-2002,theTFPanditsgrowthratehavebeenestimated.ThedatausedinthemodelisshowninTable1.
Tab.1.Outputperpersonemployedandcapitallaborratio
YEARGDPLKL
19780.2962270.49231119790.3122730.55063419800.3277130.60981719810.3339370.65145619820.3523170.70248519830.3791730.76159819840.4234120.83838619850.4637300.91020919860.4891510.988929

19870.5306281.08001719880.5737621.16461419890.5834191.21739119900.5569591.20668919910.5634501.19907719920.6353391.29341519930.7125071.38404019940.7924021.41756219950.8654061.52665419960.9370381.71682319971.0073251.91171119981.0720592.13338619991.1336732.38745120001.2120102.65457720011.2882672.95722620021.3756393.316998

ThedatashowedinTable1iscollectedfromthe
ChinaStatisticalYearBookandisprocessedbyauthors.Whereoutputperpersonemployed(GDPListheratiooftherealGDP(thebase-yearis1995tothenumberof
personemployedattheendoftheyear.ConsideringthewidefluctuationofthepersonemployedinChinainthe
latteryearsof1980s,thenumberofpersonemployedatGQZhao&HFan:EconomicgrowthforChinaandJapan9
theendoftheyearisusedbythearithmeticaverageoftwoyears,i.e.
/(0.50.5(1GDPLGDPLL=+−(7whereListhenumberofemploymentattheendoftheyear,andL(-1isthelaboratthelaggedoneyear.KListheratiooftherealsocialcapitalaccumulationtothenumberofpersonemployedattheendoftheyear,and
itisasfollows:
/(0.50.5(1KLKLL=+−(8where1(1ttt
KKIδ−=−+,andδisthedepreciationrate,andIisinvestment.

3.Estimation
BasedonthedataofTable1,theestimationoftheproductionfunctionisasfollows:2
ln(GDPL=-85.77+0.043T+0.348ln(KL(9
(-3.4(3.3(2.2R=0.998S=0.022DW=1.58AR(1=0.61(3.3MA(1=0.997(8.5
wherethesampleintervalisfrom1978through2002,andTisthetrendoftime.Thenumberinparenthesesisthevalueofthetstatistic.ThevaluesofAR(1andMA(1showthatthemodelerrortermufollowsfromARMA(1,1,andtheestimatesofthetwoparametersinARMA(1,1are0.61,0.997,respectively(wherethenumberinparenthesesisthevalueofthetstatistic.Tab.2.ContributionsofproductionfactorstoChinaeconomicgrowth(%
ContributionContributionRateAnnualGrowthRate9.5100Bycapitalinput4.042Bylaborinput1.718Bytech-progress3.840
FromtheEquation(9,wecanobtainthattheestimatesofcapitalelasticityis0.35andthelaborelasticityis0.65.BasedonthedataoftheChinaStatisticalYearBookfrom1978to2002,wecanobtainthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofGDP,theaverageannualcapitalgrowthrateandtheaverageannuallaborgrowthrateofChinaare9.5%,11.3%and2.6%,respectively.FromtheEquation(4,wecanfindthatamongtheaverageannualgrowthrate(9.5%ofGDPofChina,thecontributionofcapitalaccumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogressare4.0%,1.7%,and3.8%,respectively,inotherwordsthecontributionrateofcapitalaccumulation,laborinputandtechnologicalprogressare42%,18%,and40%,respectively(seeTable2.
Toanalyzethecontributionsofproduction
factorstoJapan’seconomicgrowthattheperiodof

1965-1996,Nakatani(2000consideredthefollowingfourperiods:1965-1972,1973-1980,1981-1990,and1991-1996.TheresultsoftheestimationareshowninTable3.
Tab.3.ContributionsofproductionfactorstoJapaneconomicgrowth（%）
AnnualGrowthRatecapitalinputlaborinput
tech-progress
1955-196113.032.863.416.751965-19729.414.880.334.211973-19803.82.720.270.811981-19903.441.660.711.07
1991-19961.221.17-0.360.41
Datasources:Nakatani,Introductiontomacroeconomics,(inJapanesep317-319(proceeding
ComparingTable2withTable3,wecanfindthefollowinginterestingfacts:
Table2showsthattheJapanesetechnological
progressratesatthefourdifferentperiodsof1965-1996are4.21%,0.81%,1.07%and0.41%,respectively.
Afterthe1973oilcrisis,theeconomystructureofJapanhasmadealotofchanges,anditstechnologicalprogressrateshavebeenlowerthan1%.Withthereformandopen-uppolicyin1980s,thetechnologyimportandtechnologytransfer,whichwerebroughtintoChinabyutilizingtheforeigncapital,helpedChinatoobtainahightechnologicalprogressrate.ThisshowsthatcontinuoustechnicalinnovationandequipmentinvestmentarethemainreasonofthehigheconomicgrowthrateofChina.So,thisconclusionisobviouslydifferentfromtheKrugman’sopinion,whichregardsthehigheconomicgrowthrateoftheEastAsiaasthe“Asiangrowthseemstobedrivenbyextraordinarygrowthininputslikelaborandcapitalratherthanbygainsinefficiency”.Arelativelyhighlevel(6.75%ofthetechnologicalprogressratewasachievedinJapan

duringthehigheconomicgrowthperiodsof1955-1961,andthenitbecamelower.Therefore,ifChinadoesnotfurtheraccelerateitsregulationofindustrialstructureanditstechnologicalinnovationthatincludesborrowingtechnologyfromdevelopedcountries,itwillinevitablyundergothedecelerationoftechnologicalprogressaswhathashappenedtoJapan.
BasedontheEquation(5,theChina’sTFPand
thegrowthrateofitsTFPareanalyzed,andtheresultsshowthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChina’sTFPis3.6%in1980s,4.5%in1990sand2.6%after2000.TheaverageannualgrowthrateofChina’sTFP
duringtheperiodof1978-2002is3.7%.Figure1and
Figure2givethevariationoftheChina’sTFPandtheBiomedicalSoftComputing&HumanSciences,Vol.13,No.1,March200810
growthrateofitsTFP(seeFigure1andFigure2.Chenetal.(1988pointedoutthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChina’sTFPincreasedfrom0.4%duringtheperiodof1953-1978to1.9%duringtheperiodof1978-1983.TheresultsofJeffersonetal.(2000
showedthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChina’sTFPis3.8%duringtheperiodof1988-1993,whereas-0.77%duringtheperiodof1993-1996.Inaddition,theestimationbyZhengandHu(2006alsoindicatedthattheaverageannualgrowthrateofChina’sTFP
presentedanincreaseduringtheperiodof1978-1995andthenadecreaseafter1995.Obviously,theseresultsarebasicallyconsistentwithourestimation.00.20.40.60.8
1
798285889194972000
Fig.1.TFP-8-40

4
812
798285889194972000
Fig.2.ThegrowthrateofTFP-8-404812
16
798285889194972000
Fig.3.GrowthrateofGDPL
Figure3showsthevariationoftheoutputper
personemployed(GDPLinChina.ComparingFigure2withFigure3,wefoundthatthevariationofTFPgrowthrateisbasicallyconsistentwiththevariationoftheGDPgrowthrateinChina,andhighTFPgrowthrateisalwaysfollowedwithhighGDPgrowthrate.FromFigure2,wefoundthatincontrastwiththeTFPduringtheperiodof1953-1978,China’sTFPduringtheperiodof1979-2002obtainedapositiveincreaseexceptfortheyearof1981and1990,theTFPgrowthratearrivedatthehighestlevelof10.3%in1994.Itisconsideredthatthereformandopen-uppolicyin1980shadobviouspositiveeffectsontheimprovementoftheproductionefficiency,promotesthetechnologicalprogressintheproductionsection,andinducesthecontinuedgrowthoftheproductivity.ThenegativeTFPgrowthratein1981and1990maybecausedbythetighteconomypoliciesthatwereexecutedbyChineseGovernmentintheearly1980sand1990stoovercometheinvestmentbubblesandinflation.WealsofoundthatalthoughtheChina’sTFPafter1994continuedtorise,itsgrowthratesteadilyfell.Wethinkthatslackcreditpolicyforthelowefficientinvestmentprojectsbeforeandafter1994isthemainreasonwhytheTFPgrowthratecontinuedtofallafter1994,andforthelowefficientinvestmentprojectsoccupiedalargenumberofcreditfunds,theirrationalcapitalallocationaffectedtheimprovementofTFPduringthisperiod.Withthe

beginningofthenewgrowthcycleafter2000,thefalltrendofChina’sTFPhasbeenrelieved.
Tab.4.TheratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeofChinaandJapan(%YearChinaJapan199030.017.1199133.415.9199234.215.1199332.513.8199443.614.0199540.214.7199635.616.2199736.217.6199834.317.0199936.416.3200043.918.1200143.318.1200249.018.9
Note:ThedataisbasedontheChinaStatisticalYearbook2003andtheEconomicStatisticalYearbook2004issuedbyToyokeizai.
4.TheRatioofForeignTradetoNationalIncomeandEstimationoftheElasticityofImportandExport
Analyzingtheprocessofthehigheconomic
growthofChina,wecanfindforeigntradeisanimportantimpetus.From1991to2002,theaverageannualgrowthrateofthetotalamountofimportsandexportswas21.8%,whichisfarhigherthanthegrowthrateofthecorrespondingperiodGDP.Table4givesthe
resultsoftheestimationoftheratioofforeigntradeto
nationalincomeofChinaandJapanfrom1991to2002.GQZhao&HFan:EconomicgrowthforChinaandJapan11

TheratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeiscalculatedbytheratioofthetotalamountofimportsandexportstoGDP.
Table4showsthatduringthe13yearsof

1990-2002,theratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeofChinawasfarhigherthantheoneduringthe
correspondingperiodinJapan.ThefluctuationofthisratioofChinaislargerthantheoneofJapan,whereastherangeofthefluctuationofChinawasbetween30%and49%,buttherangeofthefluctuationofJapanwasbetween14%and18%.TheseresultsshowthattheforeigntradeofChinaismoreeasilyaffectedbythechangeoftheworldeconomythanthatofJapan.ThecomparisonoftheratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeofChinaandJapanalsoverifiestheKuznets’stheorythattheratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeisinverselyproportiontotheeconomysize.Table5andTable6showtheestimatesofthepriceandincomeelasticityoftheforeigntradeofChinaandJapan.Tab.5.PriceandincomeelasticityoftheexportfunctionsforChinaandJapan
IncomeElasticityPrice
ElasticityEstimatingInterval
China1.260.781980-1997Japan1.830.881976Q1-1986Q4
Datasources:ZhaoandYang,Mathematicalmodelsforeconomics,p75(inChinese;Sadahiro,AneconometricanalysisonJapan’seconomy,p41(inJapanese.
Table5showsthatsometrendsoftheexport
changesofChinaandJapan.Bycomparison,wecanfindthattheincomeelasticityofChinaandJapanarealllargerthanthepriceelasticity,whereasthetwo
countries'incomeelasticityisrespectively1.26and1.83,butthecorrespondingperiodpriceelasticityisrespectively0.78and0.88.So,incomparisonwiththepricechanges,thetwocountries'exportismoresensitivetotheeconomicchanges.
Tab.6.PriceandincomeelasticityoftheimportfunctionsforChinaandJapan
Income

ElasticityPriceElasticityEstimatingInterval
China2.320.281980-1997Japan0.740.421976Q1-1986Q4

Datasources:ZhaoandYang,Mathematicalmodelsforeconomics,p75(inChinese;Sadahiro,AneconometricanalysisonJapan’seconomy,p41(inJapanese.
Table6showsthechangeoftheimportofChina
andJapan,wherethetwocountries'importfunctionshavethesamepropertythatincomeelasticityislargerthanthepriceelasticity,especiallytheincomeelasticityofChina,whichis,2.32,farlargerthanthecorrespondingperiodpriceelasticity,0.28.In
comparisonwiththatofJapan,importinChinaismoreeasilyaffectedbythefluctuationofeconomy.
5.Conclusions
Thepapercalculatestheproductionfunctionof
Chinaattheperiodof1978-2002usingtheneoclassicalgrowthmodel.Basedontheestimatedresults,theroleofthetechnologicalprogressineconomicgrowthisdiscussed.FurthermoretheChinaandJapan'spatternsofeconomicgrowthareanalyzed.InthispaperitisindicatedthatalthoughthefactorinputsstillplayanimportantroleintheeconomygrowthofChina,thereformandopen-uppolicyin1980sinducethe
continuedgrowthoftheTFP.ConsideringthefactthatthegrowthtrendoftheChina’sTFPafter1994
presentedsteadilyfalls,wethinkthatifChinadoesnotfurtheraccelerateadjustingitsindustrialstructureanditstechnologicalinnovationthatincludesintroducingtechnologyfromdevelopedcountries,itwillinevitablyundergothedecelerationoftechnologicalprogress,aswhathashappenedtoJapan.Inaddition,thetwocountries'ratioofforeigntradetonationalincomeandthefunctionsofimportandexportarealsoanalyzed.Theresultsindicatethattheincomeelasticityofthebothcountries’importandexportisbiggerthanthepriceelasticity.ComparingtothatofJapan,China's

foreigntradeismoresensitivetotheeconomicfluctuations.
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GuoQingZHAO
HereceivedtheDr.degreeofEconomicsfromKyotoUniversityin1996.Hehas
workedasaprof.ofschoolofeconomicsatRenminUniversityofChina.Hispresentresearchinterestsincludefinancialtimeseries,econometrics.
HonggangFAN
HereceivedtheDr.degreeofEconomicsfromRenminUniversityofChinain2007.Heisnowworkingasanassistantprof.ofInformationSchoolatRenminUniversityofChina.Hispresentresearchinterestsincludefinance,econometrics.

Economic Growth for China and Japan

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